Brandon Finnegan-Reds-SP
Brandon Finnegan went 6.1 IP and gave up 4 ER on 6 H, 4 BB, and 4 K's. Finnegan has been a nice surprise for the Reds this year. He has a 4.14 ERA with a 5.04 SIERA, which indicates that unless he makes drastic changes, poor results are in the near future. His strikeout rate is down 6% to a measly 16% and he still walks too many guys at 11%. If you don't miss bats, you need a heavy groundball profile or excellent control and Finnegan has neither. He also pitches half his games at Great American Ballpark, which is a great hitters park. I would get out before the bottom completely falls out.
Vincent Velasquez-Phillies-SP
Vincent Velasquez went 4.2 IP and gave up 7 ER on 9 H, 2 BB, and 6 K's. Velasquez continues to pitch well for the surprising Phillies. He came into the game with a 2.75 ERA (3.30 SIERA) and left with a 3.63. The strikeout rate is really appealing at 28.8%, which is backed up by his 11.2% SwStr. Home runs are going to be a problem from time to time being that he is a flyball pitcher in a hitters park, but he has the stuff to limit baserunners and ultimately limit the damage. The only downside to Velasquez is his innings total, but that is not something to worry about now unless you are in a re-draft league in which you might want to consider dealing him for a nice package.
John Lackey-Cubs-SP
John Lackey went 7 IP and gave up 1 ER on 4 H, 4 BB, and 6 K's. Lackey has been masterful this season for the Cubs. He has a 3.16 ERA (3.28 SIERA). He has upped his strikeout rate to 26% and dropped his walks to 5.5%. Both are very encouraging trends for the 37 yr. old. Lackey's increase in strikeouts is backed up by an increase in his SwStr to 12.4%. Lackey has been throwing his fastball less and his curve more, which has led to more swing and misses. There is nothing to point to that this level of success can't continue for Lackey.
Drew Pomeranz-Padres-SP
Drew Pomeranz went 5 IP and gave up 6 ER on 5 H, 4 BB, and 9 K's. Pomeranz has a ridiculous 2.48 ERA (3.77 SIERA). Anytime your SIERA is nearly two runs higher than your ERA, regression is bound to set in. The strikeouts (28%) are legit as he has a 11.7% SwStr. The problem with Pomeranz is his control (11.8% BB). This has prevented him from pitching deep into games, but the ability to miss bats has allowed him to limit the damage. Pomeranz has only pitched over 100 IP twice in his career and never more than 140 IP. This means that the Padres are likely going to limit his innings this year and now is the time to move Pomeranz in re-draft leagues. He is likely going to be shut down at some point this summer and regression is due.
DFS Value Play
Ben Revere-Nationals-OF
Ben Revere has shown the ability to make contact (12.8% K) and when he gets on base he loves to run. Revere will have a plus lineup spot leading off and he will get a huge boost if Cameron Rupp is behind the plate. Rupp has thrown out just 2 of 13 potential base stealers this year. This gives Revere elite upside at a cheap cost. DraftKings: $3,400
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