Carlos Rodon-White Sox-SP
Carlos Rodon went 6.2 IP and gave up 2 ER on 8 H, 2 BB, and 4 K's. Rodon was someone who looked poised to have a huge breakout 2016 season. He showed improved command to go along with his plus velocity and filthy slider over the second half of 2015. However, Rodon has lost nearly 1.2 mph on his fastball, 2.5 mph on his slider, and 2.5 mph on his change-up. He is still getting the swing and misses (23% K), but the SwStr has fallen well below what it should be for someone with his stuff at 8.4%. The shine has definitely come of Rodon as someone with elite upside. His 3.64 xFIP does point out that he can be better, but taking the Chris Sale track is looking less and less likely.
Dallas Keuchel-Astros-SP
Dallas Keuchel went 6 IP and gave up 7 ER on 9 H, 1 BB, and 5 K's. Keuchel has been a disaster this year. He has a 5.92 ERA and his strikeouts are down, walks are way up, and his GB is down significantly as well. Last year Keuchel was able to get a ton of swings on pitches outside of the zone, which led to misses and a ton of weak contact. This year, hitters are not swinging at those pitches and forcing Keuchel to pitch in the zone more, which exposes his average stuff. The not so good news is that his batted ball profile is starting to look a lot like it did before he became an above average pitcher. Throw in the fact that his velocity is down 1.2 mph and it is even less encouraging that Keuchel can turn it around.
Rick Porcello-Red Sox-SP
Rick Porcello went 5.2 IP and gave up 2 ER on 5 H, 1 BB, and 5 K's. Porcello had a very positive end to his 2015 season and he has carried that over to this year as well. He has a 3.51 ERA, which is backed up by his 3.54 xFIP. The increased strikeouts have been a pleasant surprise (23%). However, his 7.4% SwStr doesn't match his 23% K, which is concerning. A decrease in strikeouts would mean more contact, which would create a downward spiral for Porcello. I would keep an close eye on his strikeout rate. If it starts to fall, get out before the bottom falls out.
Jordan Zimmerman-Tigers-SP
Jordan Zimmerman went 5.2 IP and gave up 2 ER on 5 H, 0 BB, and 3 K's. He did leave in the sixth with a groin injury. The severity of the injury is unknown at this time and we will know more tomorrow. Zimmerman came into the game with a 2.45 ERA, but his xFIP is almost two runs higher at 4.25. This means that Zimmerman is due regression in the negative capacity, which is not what you want to hear as a fantasy owner. He is getting a bit lucky with his BABIP and LOB% compared to his career, but the drop in strikeouts is the most concerning going forward (16%). He simply doesn't miss many bats, which is a problem in the American League and makes his 2.45 ERA very unsustainable going forward. If you can sell high, now is the time to do so before that ERA soars into the mid to upper threes.
DFS Value Play
Trayce Thompson-Dodgers-OF
Trayce Thompson is becoming a name known around the fantasy community and for good reason. He is slashing .282/7/17 in limited playing time for the Dodgers. He usually finds his way into the lineup when facing left-handed starters and tonight he gets Brandon Finnegan. Thompson has a .407 wOBA/.308 ISO against LHP in limited time in the majors. Finnegan struggles with homers and Thompson has six this month. DraftKings: $3,300
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