David Ortiz
Ortiz is straight up incredible. Now 40 years old, Ortiz hit his tenth home run of the 2016 season in the third inning. But he was just getting started. He then tripled (let's repeat that: DAVID ORTIZ TRIPLED) in the bottom of the ninth to tie up the game and send it to extra innings. Then in the bottom of the eleventh, Ortiz won the game with a walk off double. Just a reminder, he is 40 years old. It's almost as if the singular mission of Big Papi's career is to prove that CLUTCH truly does exist. At this point, we shouldn't be surprised by Ortiz's production, he was written off as probably in decline all the way back in 2009 when he hit .238. His wRC+ by season since then: 134, 154, 170, 151, 134, 138 and 194 (!) this season. Then we thought his power was gone in 2012 when he dipped to 23 home runs. His home run totals by season since then: 30, 35, 37 and on pace for 44 this season - he's trending up. Ortiz defies expectations and quite possibly reality, so any real analysis may be fraught, but for those curious, his hard hit ball rate is currently the highest of his career and his HR/FB rate isn't out of the ordinary, so keep just being in shock and awe and don't expect it to end anytime soon.
Aroldis Chapman
Chapman locked down his second save of his delayed start to the 2016 season on Saturday, tossing a perfect inning with two strikeouts to boot. Chapman gave up a run in his first outing and a walk in his second, so this was his best of his limited action this season. Chapman topped 100 mph 12 times in his 17 fastballs, per Brooks Baseball, and averaged 100.5 mph for the day. He topped out at 102.5 mph, and seems to be showing no signs of rust or decay so far in New York. Chapman got five whiffs on his 17 fastballs and one whiff on his three sliders on the day. He overpowered the White Sox, and should be an excellent source of saves and strikeouts now that he is done serving his suspension. The only worry with Chapman is that there are obviously two other potent potential closers on the Yankees these days, but the Yankees showed no hesitation moving Chapman into the closer role upon his return, so consider him pretty safe.
Matt Andriese
Andriese ran an absolute train on the Oakland A's on Saturday, tossing a two-hit shutout, while striking out five. The win was Andriese's second in as many starts in 2016, and he'll be a popular pick up for his next start, if not before then. So should we buy the hot start? Probably not too surprisingly, not really. Andriese is striking out just 4.5 batters per nine, and is sporting some regression-screaming opponent BABIP (.143) and left on base rates (90.0 percent). When combined with the fact that he has yet to give up a home run, his xFIP comes in at 4.49. On the flip side of that is his 2.83 FIP that looks strong and the fact that in terms of grounded-in-what-actually-happened numbers, he's sporting a 0.56 ERA. Andriese also said after his first start that he believes all the different ways in which the Rays used him last year have made him feel confident getting out of tough situations and even if that sounds a lot like a post hoc explanation, it could help to explain a small portion of that high left on base rate. Picking up Andriese for one start (even if it is on the road against the Tigers up next) isn't going to single-handedly kill your ERA or WHIP, and if Andriese ends up being a legit breakout in 2016, you don't want to be the guy or girl who looked at that 4.49 xFIP and ignored the 2.83 FIP and more importantly 0.56 ERA and missed out on him. If he's available, scoop him up. Even if you leave him on your bench for next Saturday in Detroit because you're scared on the Regression Monster, he's worth a five-day roster spot at the minimum.
Adam Jones
Jones is officially en fuego. After a dreadful start, Jones now has homered in four of his last five games, after having hit just one dinger in his first 26 games. That's the beauty of fantasy baseball, right? I guarantee there was some poor owner who traded Jones on May 9, and hasn't stopped hitting his/her head on a wall ever since. It's pretty clear Jones won't keep homering at a rate of four in five games, or one in 26 games, so where will he settle once this hot streak ends? Well, his batted ball profile is a bonanza of contradictions. His line drive rate (13.5 percent) is by far a career low - bad sign. On the other hand, his hard hit rate (35.6 percent) is well above his career rate (31.8 percent) and second-highest of his career even before his 2-for-3 day Saturday - good sign. Same with his plate discipline. His swing rate on pitches outside the zone this season (35.3 percent) is much better than his career (40.6 percent) and far superior to last season (46.5 percent) - good sign. On the other hand, pitchers are attacking Jones at a far higher rate (49.5 percent) than in his career (44.2 percent) and especially last year (40.0 percent) - bad sign if pitchers aren't fearing you. So it's tough to tell with Jones, you're not going to want to sell him now that he's just gotten hot, so stick with him and see how all his metrics level out in a few weeks or so.
Daily Fantasy Leagues
Trevor Bauer
While non-daily league owners may have to worry about Bauer's ability to last in Cleveland's rotation once Carlos Carrasco comes back (for the record, I think Bauer will remain and bump Anderson to Triple A or the pen), daily owners have no such worries. The news gets better: Bauer has a primo match up with the strikeout-heavy and second-worst record in baseball Twins on Sunday, and could easily get a win and 7+ strikeouts on the day. Bauer is coming off seven shutout innings against the `Stros, and owns a 3.24 ERA since his move from the bullpen to the rotation, and has improved each of his three starts. Bauer's strikeout rate as a starter hasn't been quite as high as it was when he was in the bullpen, but that's to be expected, and his 8.1 K/9 as a starter isn't terrible, especially against a strikeout-prone Twin squad. His 1.08 WHIP as a starter suggests you won't be bleeding points with singles here and there, and his 3.76 xFIP underlines the solid ERA. I don't mind Tyler Duffey ($6,100) who takes the mound opposite Bauer, but I trust Minnesota's offense to crap the bed more than I trust Cleveland's offense to do the same.
DraftKings: $7,700
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