Heading through the middle of April, not only are the injuries piling up, but so are the list of available replacements. This week a load of starting pitchers have jumped to the fore. Let's take a look ...
(Note: To make the list, I'll apply a loose definition that says a player is likely be unowned in a vast majority of 12-team mixed leagues. At the end of each player note, I'll also provide a suggested bid for those that use FAAB (Free Agent Acquisition Budget) for their waiver process (based on a $100 budget). Understand that this is only a suggestion ... if you've just lost your starting outfielder to injury and you have an immediate need or gaping hole in your lineup, you will find it necessary to bid more in order to get that week's top available outfielder.)
Hitters
Javier Baez, INF/OF, Chicago Cubs
Baez is the 'forgotten' prospect in the Cubs hierarchy of future stars. He was one of the first to arrive on the scene in August 2014, but he didn't show much. In fact, he showed a miniscule .169 batting average over more than 200 at-bats. Last year was spent mostly in the minors and he proved that he had learned pretty well all the tricks he could down there by finishing with a .328 average and an OPS of .917. A spring thumb injury alongside the Cubs' roster jam made it easy to leave him off the 25-man at the start of this season. Now, his thumb is healed, his rehab stint is almost up, and Baez should be back up in the bigs this week. His power will definitely play ... somewhere. Regular playing time will be a huge roadblock, as will his immense K-rate. He might end up as a super-sub in Joe Maddon's grand scheme and that makes it difficult to pinpoint when to play him and when to sit him.
Suggested FAAB bid - $4
Trevor Brown, C, San Francisco
A San Francisco catcher goes nuts in Colorado and it's not Buster Posey?! Yes, that was the case earlier in the week when Posey missed a pair of games to rest a foot injury. That gave Brown a run in the lineup and he took advantage with four hits, four runs, five RBIs, and a pair of homers. In other words, he was better than even Posey! Well, the All-Star has returned, but don't be surprised if the club takes it easy on him behind the plate. Brown is a definite add in NL-only set-up's. He's only a fit for the truly desperate in mixed leagues that start two catchers.
Suggested FAAB bid - $1
Nick Castellanos, 3B, Detroit
Here's a former high-end prospect that used to generate all kinds of interest. But, in 2016, Castellanos is seen as 'just a guy' who is on the lower-third of MLB 3B rankings. That may be about to change. The first thing to consider is that the Tigers man is still just 24! His bat hasn't shown a great deal of growth in his first two seasons with almost identical slash marks, OPS+, and total bases. His third season has started well with a pair of homers and seven RBIs. The raves coming out from the Detroit brass about his growth have also picked up a little steam. As with so many others, his walk-to-K ratio is lacking with 75 freebies to more than 300 whiffs in his career. He's also still stuck near the tailpipe of the batting order and that will definitely limit his counting numbers. But, I'm a big believer in an expected growth bump this year. He can push 18 homers, drive in 70, and carry an average around-.270.
Expected FAAB bid - $5
Aledmys Diaz, SS, St. Louis
Diaz hasn't been hitting quite to the level of his rookie teammate, Jeremy Hazelbaker, but he has moved in as the regular shortstop starter for the Cardinals. I don't think it will stick. Long term, Jhonny Peralta, should be ready to go just after the All-Star break. Short-term, Ruben Tejada, is almost set for his minor league rehab stint and should be up by the end of the month. Diaz has shown some uplifting power with a homer and some doubles, but overall he does not profile as a plus-hitter. His mitt has also been inconsistent up the middle with three errors in his first 18 chances. So much would have to break his way for him to even be an everyday player and even then his bat would be fighting an uphill battle in the majors.
Suggested FAAB bid - $3
Jarrod Dyson, OF, Kansas City
Dyson's name belongs on this list for the simple purposes of reminding you to make certain that he's not on your leagues' waiver wire. Way back in early days of 2016 fantasy drafts, Dyson was a 'sleeper' and looked to be a legit 40-steal man as a starting right fielder for KC. Spring training had other ideas and saddled him with a Grade 2 oblique strain. That pushed him to the sidelines in a lot of March drafts. If he's still unowned in your league, go out and snag him now. He should return to a starting job in RF (neither Paulo Orlando nor Reymond Fuentes have done anything to separate themselves) and if he can just get on-base at .330 clip, he can still net you plenty of thefts. He'll also be another speed demon weapon at Ned Yost's disposal, leading to a lot of extra activity (and, even extra fantasy numbers) for the entire Royal offense.
Suggested FAAB bid - $15
J.J. Hardy, SS, Baltimore
Hardy earned some raves and attention earlier in the week when he popped a couple of home runs at Fenway Park. Unfortunately, that only served to remind us what he used to be. There was a three-year run where the vet parked at least 22 balls over the wall, but of late, his strikeout right is ascending (11 to 18 to 20%) and his ISO is descending (.170 to .104 to .092). That's not a good combo for a man nearing 34. His hold on the SS job is no longer assured, either. If his bat continues to flail and there's any further slippage with his mitt, it wouldn't be shocking for Manny Machado to make his long-anticipated move up the middle. Hardy has done nothing outside of the one game in Boston, but still figures to find his way to low-double-digit homers with 60 RBIs. That's not the worst thing at such a dreadful position.
Suggested FAAB bid - $2
Nick Markakis, OF, Atlanta
He just refuses to leave our viewfinder, doesn't he?! Markakis plays every day, hits at the top of the lineup, and has proven himself as a legitimate big league hitter for nearly a decade. Still, this name won't send anyone scurrying to the waiver this weekend. In the early going of the season, the vet has been driving the ball (a league-leading seven doubles through Thursday's action) and even managed to pick up eight RBIs for a team that is doing nothing offensively. Obviously there is no 'breakout' to be found here, but if you're one of the many fantasy owners who has had their outfield butchered by injuries, Markakis is a very cheap and mostly reliable back-up. He can sniff .300 while driving in 70 this season.
Suggested FAAB bid - $4
Pitchers
Brandon Finnegan, SP, Cincinnati
Finnegan got the ball for the Reds trip to Chicago in the home opener at Wrigley Field. And with no one expecting him to last too long against the Cubbies, he instead went out and fired nearly seven no-hit innings. He's always possessed a fastball that gets the attention of radar guns and scouts. The key for him will be the continued evolution of his change-up. Even beyond that is the trust that Finnegan must show in the change, as well as his slider. If those two things come together and he's able to keep hitters worried about three pitches, you could very well see a surprising year. It's worth a slight gamble for the back-end of your fantasy rotation.
Suggested FAAB bid - $7
Jaime Garcia, SP, St. Louis
How many times have we been down this road before? Garcia has teased and teased for years. His talent is just pouring out, but his health continues to be fleeting. When he's on the hill, his array of cutters, spikes, curves, dancers, and flutters are a major headache for any opposing hitter. When he's on, it's just tough to make solid contact on him. As long as he's taking the ball every fifth day, he's going to be a very serviceable fantasy starter (you've seen the National League this year, right?!). He will need to maintain his whiffs (13 the other day after showing a 6.7 K/9 in 20 starts last year). Don't get carried away, but if you need a guy to get you through a couple of months, Garcia is a fine target.
Suggested FAAB bid - $14
Kevin Jepsen, RP, Minnesota
Glen Perkins is on the shelf with a shoulder injury and I would not hold my breath on a return anytime soon. Of course, the Twins aren't saying that, but after witnessing Perkins' dreadful 2nd half a year ago, I'm of the belief that he hasn't been truly 100% for eight months or so. Enter Jepsen ... well, maybe. Trevor May is lurking and could see future work, but that will likely come later in the summer, if at all. Jepsen has the been-there, done-that veteran arm and he's also handled plenty of big moments in the past two years while stepping to the hill nearly 150 times. A huge factor in his bid this week is that (as of this writing) the Twins still don't have a win. Thus, Jepsen still doesn't have a save. The Perkins news came down mid-week. Don't underestimate the effect of timing on news that matters. Some of your fellow owners may have forgotten that Perkins even got hurt. Hopefully, that opens the door for you to swoop in and grasp some cheap saves.
Suggested FAAB bid - $10
Vincent Velasquez, SP, Philadelphia
In all seriousness, we may get to the end of this season and Velasquez's start versus San Diego will be the top single-game pitching performance we see all season. Sixteen whiffs against no walks is something that has happened fewer than 10 times in the history of baseball. All that and a complete game shutout (the 5th time in 10 games that the opposing Padres have scored ZERO runs). Velasquez has plenty of health and workload concerns. His talent is absolutely there and it's worth noting that his velocity was still elite at the end as he was hitting the upper-90s in the 9th inning. So, yeah, he can pitch. But, after this week's showing, his price tag is going to sail and catch a gust of wind from some over-anxious owner. My suggested price below figures in my expectation of an injury at some point and a limit of under-170 innings.
Suggested FAAB bid - $20
You can hear Kyle each weeknight on 'The SiriusXM Fantasy Drive' from 7-10 ET, Sirius 210, XM 87.
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Jiimbo
Apr 16, 16 at 05:19 AM
thanks Kyle