Andrew Cashner (SD - SP) - Coming into yesterday, Cashner looked like a great buy low candidate with FIP a half run less than his actual ERA. Then he got crushed by the Giants, allowing 6 runs in just 2.2 innings (3 ER). The wind was blowing out in a high scoring day in San Francisco, but that doesn't excuse Cashner's four walks. And unfortunately for Cashner, he's just not missing bats; he had a pedestrian 5.9% SwStr% coming into yesterday, though somehow still had a solid K/9 of 8+. Red flag. Yesterday was only but one game, so I'm not ready to give up on Cashner's season, but it certainly wasn't what I expected to see so far.
Matt Kemp (SD - OF) - Kemp hit his sixth home run of the season as part of a 1-for-4 day in San Francisco yesterday. Kemp's overall numbers are a bit depressed (.814 OPS), but that's partly due to a pedestrian 2.4% walk rate, well below his career 7.7% rate. But fear not - unless you're in an OBP league, that's not the worst thing in the world given the increased ISO. More balls in play translate to more RBIs, and since Kemp has yet to swipe a bag (and has a marginal offense behind him), I'm okay with him avoiding the walks if he can limit his strikeouts like he's been doing. The power numbers are up big for Kemp, which is supported by an 8.1% year-over-year FB% increase. That's a very impressive number, though I'm not sure if it will stick as it's notably above his career average. I'm confident Kemp can produce as a number three OF from here on out, but the biggest value he would see would be a trade out of San Diego into a more hitter friendly neighborhood. Even still, he'll flirt with 30 HR if he can maintain the FB rates.
Brandon Belt (SF - 1B) - Belt was a home run shy of the cycle last night, and he almost had it in the first inning, but settled for a sacrifice fly as part of a 5 RBI night. Even though he has just three home runs on the season, Belt. Looks. Great. He quietly had a great 135 wRC+ last year, and all he's done since then is increase his walk rate by 6%, and decrease his K rate by 12(!)%. While his overall numbers look like last years, his BABIP is 65 points below last year, and 40 points below his career average. So there could be even more good things out of Belt. He'll always have AT&T Park going against him, but if Posey starts to heat up, Belt's numbers will as well. I'm buying.
Bud Norris (ATL - SP) - Norris continued his season to forget last night, surrendering 6 ER in just 1.1 innings in Boston last night. It probably goes without saying, but Norris has no value in fantasy leagues. A handful of years ago, he flashed a lot of talent with an above average K rate and decent ERA playing in the American League, but he's lost 4 MPH on his slider over the last five years, going from wSL of 16.2 in 2011 to -3.4 in 2016. He lacks a dominant out pitch, and while he's not as bad as last night, he won't be adding much to your roster regardless.
Jeff Samardzija (SF - SP) - The Shark picked up his third win yesterday, albeit in ugly fashion. He surrendered 5 ER over just 5.2 innings. He was a bit unfortunate as his LOB% was a paltry 35.7%, but you're susceptible to that when your GB rate is 28% for the game. Despite the bad start, Samardzija may provide some value this season pitching in San Francisco. Last night notwithstanding, he had an impressive 51% GB rate - back to 2013 levels when he was extremely effective. Unfortunately, the K's are no longer there, so don't anticipate that type of production. But you may get some quality starts when he's in a pitcher friendly park, and a handful of wins playing for the Giants. You could do worse, but there will be ugly ones.
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