Neil Walker
Walker hit his 8th (eighth!) home run of the 2016 season on Monday night, continuing his red hot start to his Mets career. The ex-Pirate is tied for second in all of baseball, trailing only Bryce Harper in round trippers this season, a crazy start for Walker. The home run came as part of a 2-for-4 day which raised his average over .300 and brought his slugging percentage to .630. There are a few signs of a potential crash for Walker, though. For one, it's Neil Walker and he has eight home runs in 18 games, if you don't see some serious regression coming you might need to be checked for glasses. Outside of the obvious, eighth-year-second-baseman-hitting-a-home-run-every-other-game-capital-R-regression coming, there's his strikeout to walk ratio. Walker has just two walks to his 17 strikeouts this year, not a great sign for a hitter who has struck out only about twice as often as he has walked in his career. His HR/FB rate BEFORE Monday's homer was a Jose Abreu-like 25.9 percent, and after Monday's homer will be nearly three times his career HR/FB rate. Walker is indeed hitting the ball harder than he has in any season of his career and his fly ball rate is higher than ever, helping to explain the numbers at least, but call me skeptical as to whether this mid-career complete makeover is going to last. Walker is averaging just 385.3 feet of true distance on his home runs, with only eight players below him among the qualified home run hitters in 2016 (at least three home runs through Sunday). Walker is a great sell-high candidate if anyone will bite.
Michael Conforto
Conforto had himself a big game on Monday, going 3-for-4 with a home run, a double, three RBI and a walk. The 23-year-old is now slashing .333/.435/.614 on the season, and has proven himself one of the top preseason breakout candidates to actually break out in the early going of 2016. (Yay, prognosticators!) Conforto is contributing in all five categories and all signs point to the breakout being real for Conforto. The batting average is likely to drop to around .270ish, thanks to an inflated .381 BABIP (especially given a 14.1 line drive rate), but don't expect the BABIP to drop too, too far, as Conforto's 52.4 hard hit ball rate (before his big Monday) is tops in all of baseball, a full three and a half percent above Dexter Fowler in second. Conforto is also a fly ball hitting machine and it would not surprise me to see him eclipse the 30-home run clip in his first full season in New York. His HR/FB rate is right in line with career (minor league) totals, and his ISO of .281 paints a pure power hitter. If someone offers you a "buy high" type of deal on Conforto thinking that they're selling high, go for it, as the breakout is real.
Ross Stripling
Stripling continued to come back to earth on Monday, tallying 5.1 innings, and allowing three runs on eight hits and three walks, while striking out three. Stripling has had back-to-back less than stellar starts after a strong two-start debut to 2016. Stripling's opponent BABIP (.269) is still due for some regression, even after a night when the Marlins hit .368 on balls in play on the 26-year-old. Stripling's FIP (3.59) doesn't paint too rough a picture, but his worse-than-pedestrian 16:10 strikeout to walk ratio in 22.1 innings this season is a real red flag. Stripling should likely be bumped down from a must-own to a decent streaming option, with the potential to even lose that label. One area in which Stripling has been particularly fortunate this season began to crumble, as Stripling allowed his first home run of 2016 Monday, and although Stripling did post strong home run allowed rates throughout the minors, it's hard to imagine him maintaining a 0.40 HR/9 inning rate in the major leagues for long. Stripling's next start comes: Later this week, at home, and against the Padres - so hang on to him for one more start, but don't be afraid to cut bait if he struggles against the Friars, or if you need a roster spot to stream on Sunday after Stripling's Saturday start.
Daily Fantasy Leagues
Gerrit Cole
Sure, Cole is pitching in Coors Field Tuesday, but I had to do a double-take when I saw Cole ($7,200) down in the same price tier as Luis Severino and R.A. Dickey. Cole is up to his usual success this season, sporting a 2.70 ERA with a 1.89 FIP and 3.09 xFIP. He's striking out almost a batter an inning, and has a 1.02 WHIP. Cole is just 1-2 on the season, but he gets to face Jorge de la Rosa who currently has a 9.87 ERA and whose WHIP (1.96) is nearly as high as Cole's ERA. That's not a guaranteed win, but it's as close as you'll find on Tuesday's slate. Cole has actually never pitched in Coors before, but historically he has boasted a low fly ball rate (that figure is a bit higher in the small sample size of 2016) a strong anecdote to the Coors Effect. Cole is a bargain on Tuesday.
DraftKings: $7,200
Bartolo Colon
Colon ($6,400) is quietly plugging along, with a 2.89 ERA, 2.99 FIP and 2.74 xFIP through three starts in 2016. He's even striking out more than two more batters per nine than he did last season (8.20 K/9). Colon has been able to face the Phillies twice, but was able to shut down Cleveland in his one non-Phillies start. It's a small sample size, but Colon's opponent BABIP and home run rate are right around career norms, and his left on base rate is only slightly inflated. The speed on his fastball is right around where it has been the last four seasons, but even if it dropped, that's never stopped Colon from having success before. Tuesday's match up is with the Reds, the 26th ranked offense, who will also be without top left-handed slugging threat, Jay Bruce. With Joey Votto struggling and Brandon Phillips getting hit in the hand by Noah Syndergaard Monday night, the Reds lineup looks like a Triple-A lineup card, and Colon should cut through them like a hot knife through Colon's favorite food. If you go with Colon and Cole Tuesday, you can fill a slugging lineup highlighted by Pirates facing Jorge de la Rosa in Coors Field.
DraftKings: $6,400
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