Drew Smyly-Rays-SP
Drew Smyly went 7 IP and gave up 1 ER on 6 H, 1 BB, and 6 K's. Smyly has been excellent when on the mound over the past two seasons. He has been a great source of strikeouts (28%) and he pitches in a great pitcher's park in Tampa Bay. Smyly also has shown good command over that same time period with a 7% BB rate. All of his peripherals (2.88 xFIP) and batted ball data backs up the success that he is having. The only reason to sell high or be a little bit worried is the health piece, but that is something that cannot be controlled.
Michael Pineda-Yankees-SP
Michael Pineda went 5 IP and gave up 7 ER on 10 H, 1 BB, and 9 K's. Pineda has a 6.95 ERA, but a 3.22 xFIP. Pineda is someone who has always underperformed his advanced metrics. He has an excellent strikeout rate (24%) and control (5% BB), yet his ERA is over six. He continues to have above average BABIP's and HR/9. This could be a case of Pineda being around the zone too much. Pineda's peripheral stats suggest that better times should continue in the future and he is a perfect buy low candidate at this point. He has nice strikeout upside and should pitch closer to his xFIP and not his actual ERA.
Carlos Carrasco-Indians-SP
Carlos Carrasco went 2.2 IP and gave up 0 ER before suffering a hamstring injury covering first base. Carrasco will be put on the 15-day DL and is return is unknown at this time. Outside of today's injury, Carrasco has continued to be one of the better pitchers in baseball. He has a 2.79 ERA with 23% K and 7% BB. Carrasco has three elite pitches in his changeup, slider, and curve. He uses his great stuff to induce a ton of soft contact (47% GB) and strike hitters out. The improved infield defense of the Indians is going to go a long way in helping Carrasco stay more consistent. Carrasco isn't typically thought of as an elite pitcher, but his advanced stats and results say otherwise. Now we just have to wait a little bit longer for him to live up to these expectations.
Mat Latos-White Sox-SP
Mat Latos went 6 IP and gave up 1 ER on 7 H, 2 BB, and 2 K's. Latos has been good to start the year and some may be jumping on the wagon that Latos has returned to being a good pitcher. Unfortunately, this is looking like a mirage more than anything. His 0.74 ERA comes along with a 4.83 xFIP. He is getting extremely lucky with a .118 BABIP, considering he is striking out just 16% of batters and is missing just 6% of bats (SwStr). He is also giving up 47% FB, but has not given up a home run yet. The signs are there that Latos is going to come crashing back down to earth.
DFS Value Play
Ryan Raburn-Rockies-OF
Ryan Raburn only does one thing well and that is crush left-handed pitchers. He owns a career .359 wOBA and .228 ISO against LHP. He gets a plus matchup with LHP Jeff Locke in Coors Field. Locke pitches to contact and Coors is a nightmare scenario for him. DraftKings: $4,000
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