Blake Snell
The 23-year-old elite Rays prospect made his debut on Saturday and looked good, going five innings and allowing just one run on two hits, while sporting a strikeout to walk ratio of 6:1. The Rays have said that Snell will be sent back to the minors, but with the success he had Saturday, it wouldn't be surprising to see him back up sooner than later. In AL-Only leagues or keeper leagues, I would definitely recommend holding onto Snell (no crap in the keeper leagues), and maybe even for those playing the long-game with a pitching-desperate team in mixed leagues. Snell is the top prospect in the Rays organization, and the number 12 prospect in all of baseball, according to MLB.com. Snell struck out more than 10 batters per nine at each of his three stops across the Rays minor league system last year and in 14.1 Triple-A innings this season has a 2.51 ERA, 2.95 FIP and is striking out 13.19 batters per nine. His ceiling is very high, and it was fun to see his debut on Saturday.
Justin Upton
Upton continued his rough start to 2016 on Saturday, going 0-for-3 with three strikeouts, bringing his slash lines down to .217/.250/.319 and sending his strikeout to walk rate to 30:3 for the season. I was extremely bullish on Upton before the season, and have obviously been disappointed with his output in 2016. His RBI in Friday's game was just his second game with an RBI all season, and he has just seven runs, one homer and three RBI in 2016. The good news for Upton owners is that his batted ball profile paints a bit of a better picture. Upton's line drive rate (30.8 percent) is well above his career average, and 17th among qualified hitters before Saturday's action. That jump has also come at the expense of his ground ball rate more than his fly ball rate, and his HR/FB rate is due for a big-time positive regression. (Currently 6.7 percent compared to 14.9 percent for his career.) Upton is also going to the opposite field more often than any of his last seven seasons, and his soft hit ball rate is right in line with his career. The only peripheral that has me just a touch worried is that he has struggled against fastballs in 2016. He's hitting just .154 with a .231 slugging percentage against fourseamers in 2016 (per Brooks Baseball and before Saturday), and bat speed could be an issue sneaking up on the "grizzled" 28-year-old vet. Overall, the positive peripherals outweigh the one negative, significantly, but it's something to keep an eye on.
Miguel Cabrera
Another struggling Tiger, Miggy went 0-for-3 Saturday, bringing his own lacking slash lines down to .210/.300/.306 in the process. Miggy has just one home run to go along with seven runs and six RBI this season. Unlike teammate, Justin Upton, Miggy has a beautiful strikeout to walk ratio (13:8), but like Upton, seems due for quite a bit of positive regression. First off, his BABIP sits at .250, which is low for any hitter but heinous for Miggy, who has a career BABIP of .348. It's not as if he's not hitting line drives, either, as Cabrera is sporting a 23.9 line drive rate - actually higher than his career average. He's also making soft contact on just 6.5 percent of his balls in play, and his hard hit ball rate is just a tick off his career average. He'll be fine in terms of batting average, and, with that, the runs and RBI that come along in a strong Tiger lineup. Where Miggy does seem likely to potentially disappoint owners this season is in the power department. Miggy has a sky-high 50 percent ground ball rate (before Saturday), a continuation of a disturbing trend for Cabrera in the last four seasons (38.7; 40.0; 42.1; 50.0). If your expectations for Cabrera were 30-35 home runs this season, I would drop those down to 20-25.
Troy Tulowitski
Tulowitski returned to the lineup just a day after missing Friday's game with a hip injury. The injury is clearly nothing serious, and the day off may have been just what the Blue Jay shortstop needed, as he doubled his home run output of the season, taking Oakland A's pitchers deep twice, as part of a three-hit day. Tulo's Saturday was proof perfect of just how early we are in the season, as with the multi-homer game, only the mythical Trevor Story now has more home runs among shortstops in 2016 than Tulo. Tulowitski is still hitting just .188, but with four dingers at a position that lacks power, owners can take that for the time being. It's not all good news for owners of the 31-year-old righty, though. His line drive rate of just 4.8 percent (yes, you read that right, I didn't forget a digit in there) is dead-last among qualified hitters this season, and one of the most damning stats in fantasy baseball right now. It's also not great that Tulowitski's HR/FB rate is actually a bit inflated, meaning that the only place Tulo is getting value for his owners is likely to regress a bit. I'd look to trade Tulo after his big day in hopes that one of the other owners in your league isn't as wise to Tulo's fall from grace as you might be and thinks Saturday was a sign in the right direction.
Daily Fantasy Leagues
Drew Smyly/Michael Pineda
These two guys are right next to each other in the DraftKings rankings for tomorrow, and they are two guys I really like to produce like aces on the day. Smyly ($9,100) is coming off of back-to-back games with 11 strikeouts (big money, big money in daily contests) and has some great peripherals to start the season. His 2.91 ERA is backed by a 2.90 FIP and 2.83 xFIP, and he was a guy a lot of people liked as a breakout candidate in 2016. Pineda ($9,200) has a much uglier 5.29 ERA, but his 4.09 FIP and 3.57 xFIP paint a much prettier picture. Pineda is no strikeout slouch himself, striking out 9.53 batters per nine this season. He also gets the added bonus of facing the strikeout happy Rays (ranked 5th in baseball in highest strikeout rate) and pitching at home, where he has been better his entire career. Either of these guys should produce good value Sunday, but I'll go with Smyly by a hair, despite the 0-2 record, because of his higher ceiling. Plus, you never know when that $100 difference will come into play and you can get a slightly better guy at shortstop or something.
DraftKings: Smyly $9,100; Pineda $9,200
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