Chris Tillman, SP, BAL - Tillman didn't throw a ton of strikes on Wednesday, but he was effective enough to scatter a mere two singles and two walks over 6 2/3 shutout innings against the Rays, striking out 9. Beating the Rays twice convincingly should have you discounting the hot start a bit (the Rays have only been better than the Angels, Braves, and Padres against RHP thus far), but there are definitely signs that Tillman should be upgraded in your thought process. First, his velocity is up for the second straight year, and there's been a sizable concurrent jump in swinging strike% (without even adding in another 16 in 101 pitches Wed.). Secondly, his soft contact and hard contact percentages have been moving steadily in opposite (and good, for him) directions for 3 years straight now. He's throwing his cutter and change quite a bit more this year at the expense of the fastball, and the change has been his best pitch by far to this point....other than that, it's been his typical heavy FB, solid control performance thus far. I would feel comfortable streaming him at the very least right now, which is definitely not something that you could have said last year, and I'm getting close to trusting him most of the time in standard-sized formats: he's durable with good run support and improved stuff with the underlying stats to back up the last point.
Sean Manaea, SP, OAK - Lefties with mid-to-high 90's velocity and a solid second offering don't grow on trees, so there's certainly some excitement surrounding the call-up of Sean Manaea to start Friday's game against the Astros in place of the demoted Eric Surkamp. Jesse Hahn was a candidate for the start as well, but with some blister issues the organization decided to go with Manaea, but they've also been clear that it isn't necessarily just a spot start. Let's get the negatives out of the way first: inconsistent delivery leading to spotty control and health concerns, the latter of which is likely the greater potential issue. He was drafted nearly three years ago now, yet he's just under 240 professional innings, so expecting a long stint for him this year is likely wishcasting. Still, the upside here is tremendous, and if he truly will be hanging around for a bit he could be excellent in that home park. Short-term, the Friday match is risk-laden on both ends, facing an Astros team that is 4th in OPS against LHP yet still strikes out 30% of the time. The fact that it's at home would have me leaning toward taking some chances there. Five of his first six starts are scheduled to be at home, and we've already discussed that park a bit...I think he should be picked up in most formats, and most definitely in dynasty leagues, as for me he is clearly a top-20 SP prospect, and likely top-15.
Nick Tropeano, SP, LAA - Once again, Tropeano failed to make it out of the sixth inning, but the swinging strike% is enticing enough for me to like him as a streaming option for both daily and weekly play. The Royals are probably one of the toughest 5 teams in the league to generate swinging strikes against, yet Tropeano picked up 18 in 100 pitches last night, pushing his rate in that area up to the 13% range. Sure, he's a flyball pitcher, he doesn't pitch deep into games, and his supporting cast isn't all that great, but that one stat for me always speaks to hope for greater things. He has upside.
Steven Wright, SP, BOS - Wright continued his stretch of "consistent knuckleballing", which is probably the first time in the history of the game that's been used. The only thing consistent about knuckleballers is their inconsistency, but they do tend to run hot and cold, and Wright is on a bit of a roll now with 4 straight quality starts (after a 7 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 3 BB, 8 K outing against Atlanta) and an excellent swinging strike% of close to 12. Even after the outing his FIP and xFIP ERAs will both likely be closer to 4.00 than 2.00, so take this with a bit of salt, but he does look like he can credibly fill the role of a fifth starter in most formats right now....he just may need a quicker hook week-by-week than most.
Justin Verlander, SP, DET - OK, Verlander has now sandwiched 4 quality starts around a clunker against the Pirates, but possibly aside from the Indians game it hasn't been tremendously impressive.....except for the solid K rate. The hard contact rate is continuing to climb, and the GB rate continues to drop along with it. These are warning signs to be sure, but there's still some semblance of a pitcher here. He's a 5th starter at best at this point in his career I'm afraid, and I'm at the point where I would be trying to go matchup to matchup with him...the slider is still a quality putaway pitch, but the margins on everything else are shrinking rapidly for him.
