Hector Santiago, SP, LAA - Santiago was brilliant Monday, shutting out the White Sox over seven innings on just 2 hits and 3 walks, striking out 10 to pick up his first win of the year. There were some alarming trends in Santiago's performance over the past couple of years that made him a tough sell this year, but there has been an abrupt reversal of those trends here in the early going. After watching his GB rate and velocity decline every season since he came into the league, Santiago has suddenly tacked 2 full mph onto his fastball velocity in his first few starts this year, and with his changeup velocity only increasing by 0.5 mph, that pitch has become more effective than it has ever been before. The GB rate increase has been eye-popping as well, going from just under 30% in 2015 to 47% through 3 starts this year. These are major, major improvements: there's no other way to describe them. I've almost immediately gone from bearish to bullish on Santiago's fortunes this year, and we haven't even addressed the vastly improved control. Yes, everything this time of year must come with the "small sample size" caveat, but at least some of these changes have to persist you would think.....particularly a velocity bump of this magnitude in April.
Colby Rasmus, OF, HOU - Rasmus has always had excellent power, but the poor contact rate limited the utility of that power. Somewhere around the middle of last season, Rasmus suddenly seemed to alter his approach at the plate, chasing pitches with much less frequency, and the results speak for themselves: he hit 240/323/490 during the second half last year, 289/385/614 during September, and he's started off 2016 with a 282/431/564 line through 13 games. He's no longer a 5-tool player, but especially in that park he can help you in the power categories tremendously.
Tyler White, 1B, HOU - White has started his Houston career with a 357/429/714 line through his first 13 games. The four homers might lead you to believe that he is a different player than he actually is, as he is more of a complete hitter with average power than a slugging 1B. Still, the hard contact rate of 50% is fantastic, and he doesn't have the level of contact issues that you would normally associate with a young CI. There is a lot of pressure for playing time building up around him, so his margin for error is less than it is for most, but I do believe that he can offer enough production going forward to be worth a roster spot in all formats, albeit more as a CI than as a 1B. Somewhere around a .275-.280 AVG with 15-20 homers and an above average amount of RBIs would be reasonable to expect.
J.A. Happ, SP, TOR - Happ tossed his 3rd straight quality starts Monday, holding the Red Sox to 4 hits and 1 run over 7 innings, walking 1 and fanning 4. I was pretty bearish on Happ coming into the year, as his flyball tendencies didn't appear to match up very well with a move to the AL and Toronto. I'm not willing to back off that stance just because he's had 3 superficially solid starts: his LD and hard contact rates are at career worsts (min 35 IP), the GB rate is very close to it, and his control has regressed a bit. He's getting a few more swings and misses, but the chase rate is down as well.....there are quite a few potential negatives here. I would still bank on Happ struggling more this year than he did last year in much easier environments for him, and I'd be happy to try to unload him if I could get mid-rotational SP value for him.
Nathan Eovaldi, SP, NYY - Eovaldi is definitely a guy that I would be targeting in trade talks right now. His velocity is up once again this year to over 97 mph on average, and his chase rate and swinging strike% are at career bests here in the early going. The LD rate is very low, justifying a much lower BABIP than the .310 that he's posted thus far, and the control has improved even further. The hard contact rate and FB rate are the main issues, aside from simple bad luck, and I've got to think that the ERA is going to begin drifting back toward his xFIP ERA of 3.13 very soon. His first crack at that comes this week against the A's, who've been scoring runs at a clip of less than 3 per game in the early going.
