Marco Estrada - Estrada came off the DL Sunday and pitched a gem against Boston, shutting out the Sox over seven innings on just five hits and two walks, striking out eight. There are a few powerful reasons to expect regression from Estrada this year with a weak K/9 rate and a seemingly fortuitous HR/FB ratio in 2015, but I'm not entirely convinced that will be the case. Granted, Estrada is a flyball pitcher in a hitters park, so some ERA regression should be expected, but I do believe there is some K rate upside to be had. Estrada was a bit better than average (36th of 78 qualifiers) in swinging strike% last season, and that was the lowest rate that he had posted in his career as a starter at 9.9% (he was up closer to 14% Sunday). His soft contact rate is rather high, leading me to believe that he's pitching to contact a bit more than pitching for the K. His BABIP was a bit fortunate last year, which certainly has to do with the soft contact rate (and low LD rate of 15.5%) to some extent, but a small amount of regression there is likely as well. All in all, I'd expect a bit higher K rate and a bit higher ERA (maybe 3.60-3.75) from Estrada this year, which for me, still makes him a viable starter in just about all formats. If you can sell him as a #2 or #3 in trade fine, but otherwise he is a perfectly solid #4 or #5 for your rotation.
Preston Tucker - Tucker hit a solo homer (his 2nd) in 4 ABs Sunday, and he's off to a very hot start with a 385/385/1077 line for the first week. More importantly, Tucker hit 255/314/494 against RHP last season, and with his LD rate and hard hit% I think the BABIP might have a bit of room for improvement. Tucker would probably be a tough carry in leagues with thin rosters, as he doesn't hit LHP to speak of, but if you have reasonably sized reserve space I think he can certainly provide value in all formats during weeks that the Astros face 5 or more RHP. Still just 25, I do believe that Tucker should be rostered in most formats, but we will need to watch the playing time situation with the impending return of Evan Gattis this week. I think that Tucker will still garner most, if not all, of the playing time against RHP, but you can never be sure with guys that aren't completely established.
Nomar Mazara - Mazara didn't disappoint in his debut, going 3-4 with a 443-foot HR against Jered Weaver, who otherwise stifled the Rangers. Let's get one thing straight right off the bat: if he's unowned in your league, go pick him up or bid heavily on him immediately, then come back and read the rest of this. He was a consensus top-5 prospect coming into the season, and even 2 weeks shy of 21 years of age, he's already proven that the power is significant. .300 AVG, 30 HR ceilings have been placed on him by many different sources, and although the longish swing might put a bit of pressure on the AVG initially, the hand/eye coordination is there to fulfill those projections. Mainly, though, the power is the biggest tool, and he's playing in Texas no less. He's slated to be the everyday RF for the next 4-6 weeks, and then the operative phrase seems to be "we'll see." I would bet you can plug him in until Memorial Day as a starter in just about all situations, and at that point it's completely dependent on performance and injury as to whether he stays up.
Edinson Volquez - I don't have the velocity data yet from Volquez's start Sunday (5 2/3 IP, 8 H, 2 ER, 0 BB, 10 K), but in his first start his FB velo was up over a full mph from last year (which was up 1/2 mph from 2014). There's certainly a direct relationship between velocity and K rate (usually but not necessarily across pitchers, but definitely for each individual pitcher), so it's easy and likely appropriate to get a bit more excited about Volquez right now. Granted, he's faced two weaker offenses out of the gate, but if he's throwing this much harder with control, he could be a very sneaky mid-rotation starter this season. I would grab him if available in most formats on speculation if you have room, and we will have quite a bit more data on whether or not that turned out to be a good idea after the next two outings against the A's and Tigers.
Joey Rickard - Rickard has gone from Rule V draft pick hoping to stick on the roster to starting OF for a pennant contender in fairly short order, thanks to a broad-based skill set and a disappointing performance to this point by Hyun Soo Kim. Despite the one (399 foot) homer by Rickard already, this isn't a guy that is likely to hit more than single-digit homers at any point in his career, but he makes excellent contact and has very good speed. If he is indeed going to hit at the top of solid Oriole lineup most of the time, it definitely makes him a worthwhile option in most formats. The AVG is likely to be a helping one, he'll score runs, and he can probably be expected to steal 15-20 bases....that's a starting OF in just about all formats, and you would expect that he'll have a bit of a leash because he is very solid defensively. Sometimes we can overcorrect on the "dismissing a hot spring" mentality and miss on a player that is actually going to have some value, and despite the very low power ceiling, I think that is the case with Rickard.
