What is the use of a fantasy baseball columnist if he's not going to make predictions? It's like a cupcake without icing. A pair of pants without a zipper. A Chris Davis at-bat without a strike swinging. Frankly, it's un-American.
In an effort to keep my citizenship in my country and in this community, here are 16 predictions for the 2016 season. Cut and save so that you can refer to them in October! ...
Please Note: The predictions below are the sole opinions of the author and may not represent the predictions in the Fantistics Player Projections Draft Advisory software.
1. Patrick Corbin goes for 15 wins and a sub-3.50 ERA
Corbin enters the new year with few eyes upon him. Of course, he's overshadowed by the two hurlers ahead of him in the D'Back rotation, Zack Greinke and Shelby Miller. But, he's also fighting for a level of interest even beyond pitchers in the top 40. Corbin missed all of 2014 and most of 2015 with Tommy John surgery and recovery. His short run of 85 innings late last summer revealed a hurler who looked a lot like his former self ... a guy who is a good bet for a quality start almost every time out and who can also put down 7.5-to-8 strikeouts per 9 innings. With an improved offensive cast around him, sniffing 15 wins shouldn't be a huge challenge. His workload will likely be kept under 180, but he's an absolute steal if you snag him as your 4th SP in a 12-team league.
2. Ben Revere leads all of baseball in runs
On the surface this makes total sense because Revere will be hitting atop the Washington Nationals batting lineup. He hits .300. He steals 35 or more bases. A giant runs total is expected, right? Well, Revere has never topped 85 runs and he has never even had a .345 OBP. So such a prediction is a bit risky. Revere will need to be well-over 100 runs to take the MLB crown. The Nats are embracing a 'put the ball in play' approach and that should lead to a lot of movement and advancing for Revere once he's on base. I expect that Dusty Baker will give him a solid green light, I expect both Anthony Rendon and Bryce Harper to remain upright, and I expect Revere to be the rare fantasy asset who hits, runs, and scores at extremely good levels.
3. Kyle Seager is the Best Seager
I believe that this Seager is the most underrated player in the game today. The Mariner's 3rd baseman has played in at least 155 games in each of the past four seasons. He is effective in all five categories with at least average marks across-the-board. He hits in the middle of the Seattle batting order. He can bring back double-digit homers and steals. And, I believe that this will be the year where he goes 25-90-90-10, alongside a .270 average. Good luck to his younger brother reaching any of those five marks. I'll also wish good luck to more than five other infielders hitting all those marks in 2016.
4. Yoan Moncada is up by the All-Star break
With each passing season we see MLB teams become more willing to promote the young and unproven. At this time last season, no one thought that Carlos Correa would be up with the Astros by July. Yet, there he was ... promoted quickly and succeeding immediately. I can't predict Moncada for immediate success, but I think the road has been paved for him to ascend to the Red Sox major league roster by mid-season. Currently, the team is employing Travis Shaw as their starting 3B with Pablo Sandoval in a back-up role. Do not be stunned if both disappoint because of performance or injury. Shaw could even end up back at 1B when Hanley Ramirez suffers his inevitable injury. Over at 2B, Dustin Pedroia, continues to limp through his final seasons. I love him when he's at the plate, but keeping him at the plate is starting to become a challenge. All of these problems speak to Moncada being a sooner-rather-than-later call-up. The Red Sox are always in win-now mode and if Moncada is showing expert power and speed in the minors, you can bet that the Beantown denizens will be chanting for his call-up by the mid-year.
5. Eric Hosmer, Freddie Freeman, and Brandon Belt all set personal bests in HR category
First base is where a fantasy owner heads for power. Yet, all three of these very proven pieces have yet to reach the power heights that many predicted for them. Hosmer has been prone to a ground-ball swing and has a career-best total of just 19 homers. Freeman's gap-to-gap stroke makes him a good bet for 20+ round-trippers, but he still has yet to top 23 in a year. Belt is a line-drive machine (41% last season!) who has battled injury and an oppressive offensive ballpark on his way to a career-best number of 18 homers in a year. Each man in the trio will set a new career mark in 2016. Hosmer will jump to 22. Freeman will lead the crew with just under 30. Belt will turn many of those liners down the line into 24 jogs around the diamond.
6. Byung-Ho Park is a bust
The KBO-import has kept his head above-water in spring camp with three homers in 52 ABs. With 500 ABs in '16, such a pace would equate to 30 homers, right? Yes, it would. But, his spring pace of 13 whiffs for every 1 walk would also equate to ... hmmmm ... 260 Ks vs. 20 walks. In other words, unlike those in the Twins' camp, I'm not sold on Park being set for success in the big leagues. It's worth mentioning that for the start of the season Minnesota expects to sit him versus some of the more accomplished right-handed pitchers in baseball. Even when he's in the lineup it looks like he'll be batting 5th or 6th which could hinder those RBIs and runs totals. When all is said and done, I'm on the low end of nearly all preseason predictions for the slugger ... under 20 homers and under 75 RBIs with a batting average under-.250.
7. Devin Mesoraco plays ... but, struggles for power with a sub-.430 SLG%
I just find it impossible to get on-board with a catcher who is suffering from hip pain. I truly doubt his ability to catch 130 games and I also doubt his chances for the twist-and-turn, power transition that he must recapture in order to eclipse 20 home runs again. As I have noted before, we have seen way too many guys struggle to re-establish their pop coming off of hip problems. Overall, it's one of the more dangerous long-term problems that can crop up for a player. Even if Mesoraco plays a good deal of 2016, I'm penciling him in for a max of 15 home runs.
8. Gerardo Parra fails to hit 10 homeruns ... while playing home games at Coors Field!
No one will ever mistake Parra for Paul Bunyan at bat, but everyone hits at least double-digit homers when playing at Coors Field, right? Well, everyone except D.J. LeMahieu (6 last year), I guess. Parra is a fine player, but I believe that his swing will take advantage of all the gap real estate in Denver before it takes aim at the wall. Until last year he had always been a groundball machine (1.10 grounders for every fly ball ... the MLB average is around .80). His HR/FB% also took a giant leap last season, ending up at 6.5% when it had never even touched 5.2% in the previous six seasons. He can still be a fine player with an everyday spot in the Rockies' starting nine, I just don't think you should consider him any kind of improved home run threat with the move to the thin air of the Mile High City.
9. Glen Perkins' neck issues continue
Perkins put forth his best effort at 'toughing things out,' down the stretch last season and the results were headache inducing. As he continually told team and media that he was fine, he went from a thoroughly dominant first half to a brutally terrible second half. All you really need to know is that his first half featured a 1.21 ERA with a 0.83 WHIP. His second half turned into a 7.32 ERA, 1.88 WHIP nightmare. As things wore on the blame was pinned on a painful neck. Offseason rest was prescribed and now the crossed-fingers routine begins. I don't have faith in it. At the age of 33 I expect the issue to continue and for Perkins to be one of the biggest let-downs among all relievers this year.
10. Yordano Ventura blows out his elbow
Ventura has spent a pair of seasons with the big league club and in both of them he's battled and fought through an arm issue. To his credit he has pitched through most of them, including an ulnar nerve issue in '15. A think the grim reaper gets his arm this year. His stuff is stupendous, but his workload has been fairly large for such a young pitcher. I see innings, I see previous arm issues, and I see that he has not had TJS yet ... the odds are against him.
11. Miguel Cabrera finishes a 2nd consecutive year with under 120 games played
When Miggy plays, Miggy murders the baseball. Amazingly, even after all these years, he is still one of the more frightening hitters for an opposing pitcher to face. I am not saying that Cabrera will struggle this year when on the field. I'm just saying the will find it a struggle to stay on the field. Look at the end of the past two years. The future Hall of Famer has been limping to the finish line. With so many miles and so many years on his body, I think we're to the point where you will see further health decline. History tells us that two-thirds of fantasy 1st-rounders fail to return first-round value. With 40+ games lost, Cabrera will be a part of that group this summer.
12. Tom Murphy finishes as a top 20 catcher
I don't think the Coors Effect will help Parra ... but, I do for Murphy?! Heck, most of you probably didn't even know that he wore a Colorado uniform until you just read those words. We saw a snapshot of him last year when he arrived for a September call-up and provided enough evidence (three HRs and a .543 SLG% in just 35 ABs) to stir up some interest. He will actually begin his season in the minors, but I could see a call-up by May. Understand, too, that Nick Hundley is set to walk as a free agent at seasons end. You do not need to draft Murphy in a two-catcher league. But, if you find that spot a struggle in the early part of this season, keep your eyes on the transactions list to see when Colorado calls Murphy back up to the bigs.
13. Anthony Rizzo misses at least a month with a broken bone in his hand
Have you seen where Rizzo stands in relation to home plate? Have you seen the ever-increasing number of hit-by-pitches that Rizzo has earned (from 6 to 15 to 30)? Have you no understanding of the Chicago Cubs' history?! Put all three of those items into the blender and I believe that Rizzo's Lady Luck is about to head elsewhere. At some point this season, you'll see an opposing pitcher go up-and-in on Rizzo. They'll never admit it, but teams are often in the business of sending messages. In 2016 the message will be that the star player for the star team in the National League cannot stand directly atop home plate as if the space was decreed to him. Rizzo will take a pitch in the hand, break a bone, miss at least a month, and, thus, fail to return top 10 fantasy value this year.
14. Matt Carpenter doesn't hit even 15 HRs
Thanks to a huge second-half push (19 of his 28 total home runs), Carpenter blew away his previous best for homers in a season (11). The talk all spring has been about him pulling back a bit on the power and returning to his high-average ways. As their leadoff man, the Cardinals need him to get on base more and will happily take a slow down on the power-front. Beyond that, Busch Stadium III does no favors to hitters (a 3-year park factor on HR below 100). Oh, and did you see that Carp's HR/FB percentage more than tripled last year?! A jump from 3.0% to over 10% is a perfect example of what we mean when we utter the word 'unsustainable.'
15. Steven Matz is under 140 innings of work
The Mets' 2015 was not perfect, but many on-the-field 50/50s went their way as they took home the NL pennant. Perhaps the most pleasant part of the remarkable year was the near-excellent health of their celebrated pitching staff. Matz was the lone exception as a torn lat muscle cost him about two months of time. When he was on the hill he was strong (a K-per-inning and an ERA of 2.27 in 35.2 frames) and he also showed off his skill set in the glare of the postseason. But, the injury with the parent team continued a trend of injury issues that plagued him in the minors. I also expect the Mets to limit his 2016 work more than any of their other hurlers. You throw in three to four fewer starts, a quick yank after six innings when he does pitch, and a DL-stint ... you have fewer than 140 innings of pitching in 2016.
16. Tony Cingrani notches 15 saves
This is not a claim that Cingrani will win the job at any point in Cincinnati. This isn't even necessarily a claim that you should make room for him on fantasy roster, right now (although those in 15-teamers can consider it). It's just a gut call that the hard-throwing, mostly-one-super-pitch lefty will find his way to a handful of one and two out saves this year. I think you'll see him get the call in the 9th when a strong hitting lefty is due up. Beyond that, the Reds might have to mix-and-match all year with the back end of their 'pen. In other words, no one truly becomes the prepositioned closer. Cingrani works in among a group of guys who see work based off of matchups and who's going well at any particular time.
You can hear Kyle each weeknight on 'The SiriusXM Fantasy Drive' from 7-10 ET, Sirius 210, XM 87.
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