There's a red moon rising ... On the Cuyahoga River ... Rolling into Cleveland on the lake
For baseball fans of a certain mood and generation, those three lines likely lead to an instant recall of the opening scenes from the late-80s baseball spoof, 'Major League.' Randy Newman's tune had nothing to do with baseball ('Burn On,' referenced the 13 industrial waste fires that started on the Cuyahoga River in the 50s and 60s), but it was the perfect intro tune to welcome viewers to the hapless Cleveland Indians' franchise.
A personal favorite moment of mine comes relatively early in the flick. The team owner has one goal for the new season - lose as many games as possible, thus forcing a lucrative relocation to Florida (yeah, the Florida market was still a 'thing' in the 80s). In the scene she has arranged a get-together with the personnel department before spring training, presenting everyone with the collection of burnouts, flameouts, never-were's, and misfits who will make up the squad's spring training roster ...
Owner: "Here's a list of the people we'll be inviting to camp this year."
Operations Director: "I never heard of half these guys. And the ones I do know are way past their prime."
Manager: "Most of these guys never had a prime."
Head of PR: "This guy here is dead!"
Owner: "Cross him off then."
As far as we know such a meeting was not rehashed by any of the 30 MLB camps heading into spring camp (... although now that I think of it, Philly, Atlanta, and Cincinnati, might have held such a get-together). Still, there are players, previously unknown, who have entered our radar over the previous month-plus down in Arizona and Florida. Many of us are heading into our biggest draft weekend and if you are staying up to date on the latest, you know that there are fresh names who have earned fantasy consideration. No one on the list is dead, but we are all wondering how long they can stay alive as a fantasy baseball contributor. Here's the fantasy outlook for the collection of 'Who's That Guy?' players ...
Travis Shaw, 1B/3B, Boston
Shaw's stroke has been one of the top stories of Red Sox camp. He's already accumulated nearly 50 plate appearances and has done plenty to impress in those opportunities. He's nearing double-digits in both runs and RBIs and picked up exactly where he left off during his big league cameo of a year ago (13 HRs, 31 R, and 36 RBI in under 250 PAs). Pablo Sandoval's standing at the hot corner is tenuous (performance and back stiffness) which could mean chances for Shaw at 3B throughout the year. If he gets into the lineup regularly, he will need a replay of his high fly ball rate of '15 which stood at a robust 43%. If he gets that and over 400 trips to the plate, he should be a fantasy find. A full-blown injury to either Sandoval or Hanley Ramirez would help, but then again, that should be expected for both. Taking a flier on Shaw at the end of your draft is totally warranted.
Tyler Naquin, OF, Cleveland
It's a fairly large surprise that an unknown rookie appears to have beaten out both Rajai Davis and Will Venable for chances in centerfield. Naquin does offer the hapless Tribe defense a decent-mitt/plus-arm that should help out the staff, but it's his spring hitting that has turned heads. He is not known as any sort of power threat, but still popped a pair of homers in a single game earlier this week. At the same time he's shown the ability to find the gaps with his lumber (six doubles and triples, combined). In four minor league seasons he has held his own with a solid batting mark (.287) and his walk rate jumped near 11% last year. But, there's little that suggests he can stand out in any one category and if he has a run of rough games, both Davis and Venable will be easy fallbacks for manager Terry Francona to turn to. There's a better chance he's forgotten by May 1 than that he's in your starting fantasy lineup.
Tyler White, 1B, Houston
I caught White taking some hacks against Matt Harvey on Thursday and let's just say he looked the part. Admittedly, Harvey looked weary with a fastball that struggled to crack 90 and an offspeed selection that misfired all day. White lazered a 3rd inning ground rule double and that was just the latest in a spring training effort that has seen him beat out both Jon Singleton and A.J. Reed for 1B playing time. Nothing is official, but it would be surprising if the Astros didn't name him their Opening Day man. White has hit at every level despite not having the high-end prospect tag. His run at Triple-A Fresno last year was out of this world with a slash(er-flick) line of .362/.467/.559. He has also received plus grades on his batting eye and always seems to find the gaps. I wouldn't expect many homers, but he could easily be a high-average, RBI-producing corner infielder if he gets rolling early and often.
Alex Colome, RP, Tampa Bay
Brad Boxberger's oblique injury has let the door swing wide-open on the Rays' closer spot. Colome might be the best bet to see save opportunities in April. And as we have seen in similar situations, if Colome can get on a roll, he can maintain the job even when Boxberger returns. Why? Because it's Brad Boxberger, not Dennis Eckersley, that we're talking about! But, wait a sec. Can Colome even be expected to succeed? Very good question, dear reader. A few years back he was considered a future member of Tampa's rotation. But, after some back-and-forth between the minors and majors and the rotation and the bullpen, the Rays finally handed him a relief role late last season. And he handled himself fairly well. His fastball-slider combo can certainly play in the 9th inning, but we have the old stand-by worry ... none of us will ever know how an untested, new reliever will react to the spotlight and the pressure. But, there's another old stand-by to talk about ... possession is 9/10ths of the law and Colome should have that. He's definitely draftable if he's tagged as the Rays' man in the 9th.
Socrates Brito/Peter O'Brien, OF, Arizona
Neither of these D'Backs have disappointed during the month of March. Brito hasn't excelled, but he has gotten on base enough (.375 OBP) to overcome a propensity to whiff (10 whiffs in 46 ABs). O'Brien has cooled after a fabulous start, sitting with four HRs, 14 RBIs, and 12 R. At the same time, he's been adequate in making the defensive switch from behind the plate to the outfield. But, the problem is Yasmany Tomas. After a stuttering start to his second big league season he's started to come around and is banging the ball around the diamond. That means that both of the youngsters are little more than back-up's. They won't get the call unless Tomas fails. There's potential with both - Brito profiles as a five-category helper and O'Brien has plus-power as evidenced by his 60 home runs over the past two minor league seasons. Still, for now, neither really fits unless you have rosters that hit 30+.
Adonis Garcia, 3B, Atlanta
Word has come out late this week that the Braves are toying with the idea of batting Garcia in the clean-up spot. Obviously, that's a boost to his fantasy potential. Garcia certainly played the part of mid-lineup clubber last season. In under 200 at-bats he somehow powered his way to 10 homers. I say 'somehow' because Garcia has never shown that kind of pop potential in the minor leagues. As a former Cuban national he got a late start stateside and over the course of four minor league seasons he had a total of 21 round-trippers in nearly 1,200 trips to the dish. Simply put, don't buy last year ... or, the 22% HR/FB ratio! Garcia won't be terrible, but I doubt he'll be of much use to you unless the bottom falls out of your 3B spot. You can let him slide by at the draft table.
Scott Schebler/Adam Duvall, OF, Cincinnati
Even after a full month of exhibition play the Reds don't seem to have figured much out when it comes to left-field. It appears that both Schebler and Duvall will be playing to begin the season. Both options have received over 40 at-bats in spring and both have their good and their bad. For Schebler ... he's hit 3 home runs, stolen a couple of bags, but continues to strikeout at too high a rate with 11 in 41 at-bats. For Duvall ... he's driven in 10, banged out 14 hits, but has yet to draw a walk in 47 at-bats. Schebler is easily the better option for chances to begin the season (he hits left-handed and should face most righties), but that doesn't cause a tingle up my spine. After some major success in the mid-minors, he seemed to plateau against better completion. Both guys will play, but until we see at least a month of results I'm hesitant to suggest either player as draft pick.
Trevor Story, SS, Colorado
Exactly a month ago I talked over the unsettled Jose Reyes situation. In word, the situation is 'toxic.' Don't draft him. At the end of the piece I made mention of the mostly unexciting secondary and back-up options that the Rockies could turn to. One of the names was Story's and since then he's managed to prove that he's the best available option for the Rox while Reyes remains out. But, will Colorado hand him the spot? That's still a question. Honestly, though, it would be hard for a rebuilding team to not just give Story the shot. He's a decent prospect who has performed well in Arizona (he's hammered out four homers while maintaining an average over-.300). He has a definite chance of providing an April lift. Look at this schedule - 13 home games in Denver, plus two trips to Arizona, one to Wrigley, and another to Cincinnati. In effect, ALL 24 of his scheduled games in April will be in hitters' parks! It's totally fine to take a shot on him during your draft, but with the Reyes situation still a massive unknown and with Story's profile that of a 'good power, iffy contact and consistency' hitter, he's more of a short-term answer.
Keon Broxton, OF, Milwaukee
A portion of the Broxton excitement has cooled. Earlier in the spring the former-Pittsburgh farmhand seemed to be the only guy who wanted the Brew Crew's job in center. But as things have progressed, Milwaukee still appears unwilling to give any true hints as to who they would like to handle most of the work at that position. Broxton has super speed and would immediately become viable if given a majority of playing time. Unfortunately, he's on the weak-side of any platoon because lefty-swinging Kirk Nieuwenhuis figures to get a few more hitting chances in April. As of now, Broxton isn't a great snag, but if word comes out that the team is favoring him for starts then he would instantly become a strong back-up outfielder.
Will Smith, RP, Milwaukee
Milwaukee has not called Smith their closer, but a decision should come out in the next week. While Smith has been available and succeeding in his spring opportunities, his main competition (Jeremy Jeffress) has managed just two appearances. The knock on Smith is that, well, he's left-handed (oh, and a knee issue popped on Friday!). The always existing fear is that the majority of hitters any southpaw will face will be coming up from the right-side. Last year Smith excelled versus those righties by keeping their batting average below the Mendoza line. Of course, the year before that same mark stood way up near-.300. Smith's slider is a put-away pitch (well over 2/3rd's of his punch outs came on the pitch) and he's coming off a career-best season. We never know who will bust loose for 30 or more saves, but Smith is definitely a candidate and would make for an excellent 3rd RP option. UPDATE: Smith will some significant time with a knee injury, Jeremy Jeffress moves into that role now.
Jabari Blash, OF, San Diego
The name certainly has star power written all over it, right? Plus, you have to love your odds for playing time when you're backing up guys like Jon Jay, Travis Jankowski, and Melvin Upton, Jr. Blash could break April with the big league team because of his long-ball tendencies. He has excellent lift and ... that's it. He doesn't do much else unless you're looking for a lot of huff-and-puff, swing-and-miss. I just don't see a skill-set much different from that of former Padre, Kyle Blanks. Now entering his age-26 season, Blash could end up with mid-teens homers in a perfect situation, but that's very doubtful to occur this year. Furthermore, everything else would be hugely inefficient as to dilute all the homers he could hit.
Colin Rea, SP, San Diego
Anytime you come across a write-up on the righty, you'll no doubt read that he offers very little upside. He's treated as a #4 or #5 in a major league rotation. And, lo and behold, that's exactly where he will begin the season for the Padres. He was good in a quick run-through with the big league team last season, but had to shut things down early with some forearm and elbow soreness (major red flag). He has been granted more work than any other Padre hurler in the spring, totaling 17 innings, but doing little with those frames (5.82 ERA, 1.65 WHIP). Even if he had been great down in Arizona I wouldn't see much upside. He's your prototypical in-season streaming option for when he has a couple of starts or when he's in the midst of a hot run and has a good head-to-head coming up. That means he's not worth drafting in March.
You can hear Kyle each weeknight on 'The SiriusXM Fantasy Drive' from 7-10 ET, Sirius 210, XM 87.
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