The Arizona Diamondbacks made splash after splash during the offseason. There was the out-of-nowhere signing of ace hurler, Zack Greinke. There was the expensive trade that added Shelby Miller to the roll call. Later, they tacked on yet another arm as Tyler Clippard inked a free agent deal, providing solid depth behind current closer, Brad Ziegler.
But, there was still another move - this one for hitting! - that garnered less attention. Just before spring training the D'backs upped the competition for a spot in the middle of their infield, completing a flip with Milwaukee that brought the struggling, Jean Segura, to the desert.
Segura is coming off a pair of weak years in which he posted a very pedestrian slash line of .252/.285/.331. Those marks are a world away from his breakout rookie season that featured a slash line of .294/.329/.423. So, what's happened?
First, maybe he was never that good. Perhaps he's little more than a 'One Year Wonder.' Secondly, he could point to some off-the-field and unfortunate family events that side-tracked his sophomore campaign. Oh, and don't forget the freakish eye injury (courtesy of a wild Ryan Braun warm-up swing) that he suffered in 2014, as well. But, there might still be another culprit. Maybe Segura is not being used correctly in the batting order.
If you go back to his All-Star season of 2013, Segura handled the 2-spot in Milwaukee's lineup 120 times over the course of 143 starts. In those 120 games he raked, posting an OPS around .760 (very good for a shortstop who would also finish with over 40 thefts). So, how often has he hit 2nd since? Thirty-four times! In 2014, he hit over 10 times in four different spots in the order. In 2015, the Brewers were a little more consistent by giving him over 50 starts as the lead-off man and another 50+ games as the number-7 hitter. But, the ugly marks persisted.
Milwaukee tried and tried to turn Segura into their table-setter, but he couldn't do it. Now, it appears that Arizona will give it their best shot.
Through the early run of spring action, the new import has mostly been handling the lead-off spot. He's answered well with nine hits in his first 13 ABs. CBO Tony LaRussa has done nothing but rave about the soon-to-be 26-year old, claiming his talent is off the charts. Currently, he's battling a slight knee issue, but it doesn't appear to be anything pressing.
The true pressing issue is that if he leads off, Segura must figure out how to consistently get on base. When you have the likes of Paul Goldschmidt and A.J. Pollock ready to drive in runs, there has got to be runners on base. For his career Segura owns a rather gloomy .301 OBP. A look at his marks from a season ago shows a player who has excellent contact skills (near 85%) and a better than league-average K-rate (15.9%), but simply put, he hits too many groundballs (59% of his batted balls), i.e., easy outs. Hopefully, a new coach (first-year batting coach, Dave Magadan) with a slightly altered approach causes him to drive the ball more. Better swings, a little more aggression, continued experience, a new team, fresh support ... this can be a definite rebound spot for Segura.
I still see Segura as a player who can recapture a .275-plus batting mark. Honestly, it shouldn't take too much for him to push his OBP to near-.320. If those two items happen, you will own a huge SB threat (30-40 thefts) who can also threaten for 90+ runs. He'd be a top-5 shortstop in this scenario. As of now, he looks to be the leadoff man (the team does not want to waste Pollock in that spot) and will be given one last chance to prove he deserves it. It could be over by June, but in a world where you have to measure risk vs. reward, I come out on the side of reward with Segura.
Here are a few other lineup situations to monitor as we head through the middle of March and ramp up to the games that matter ...
• San Diego Padres - Yangervis Solarte had a truly-overlooked 2015 that featured a solid .270 average with 14 homers and 63 RBIs. Heading into this year he has a job locked down at the hot corner and he will bat either 3rd or 5th in the Friars' lineup. We'd all certainly like him at #3 (presumably between Wil Myers and Matt Kemp), where he could take advantage of a myriad of opportunities. He's quite good versus RHPs (.771 OPS in '15) and also has multi-positional eligibility. This all adds up to a solid late-round selection.
• Kansas City Royals - Alex Gordon is back in KC, but where will he bat? Manager Ned Yost has given him a slight chance at the two-hole, but he'd prefer to keep Mike Moustakas there. That means that the long-time Royal could get buried all the way down at #7 entering the season. Such a slot would kill his counting stats, his opportunities, and his initial fantasy value. He's still a fine overall player, but we've probably already seen the best of what Gordon can give us. I wouldn't expect anything more than .265/.360/.430 slash.
• Detroit Tigers - There is not necessarily a situation to follow here. Instead, it's a situation to make you aware of. Justin Upton has entered a phase in his career where many (mistakenly) treat him as 'just a guy.' He's not given credit for what he is. He's averaged a .814 OPS over the past three seasons, while popping 27 round-trippers, driving in and scoring over 80, plus playing nearly every single day (over 150 games per year since 2011). He's a very good 2nd fantasy outfielder. Now with Detroit, he's also expected to handle duties between lead-off man, Ian Kinsler, and the All-World, Miguel Cabrera. His value is headed up coming into this year, but few seem to realize it. Admittedly, there's an obvious concern with the league switch, but I'll favor the many positives over the one negative.
• Toronto Blue Jays - Does it matter if either Michael Saunders or Troy Tulowitzki is named the team's lead-off man? I ask because neither guy profiles as someone who will even be healthy come June. Saunders career is pricked throughout by injury after injury and Tulo is no different. As of now, the Jays want one of these two to be at the top. I have no expectation of Saunders being able to complete a year without a DL-stint. He may win the April gig, but that means little moving forward just because of his overall fragility. Which leads us (and Toronto) to Tulo. In real-life, it's not the worst decision in the world. Toronto doesn't need him in the middle of their lineup (you might have heard ... they're fine there!) and the shortstop has a career OBP mark just a digit under-.370. That's lead-off material. Unfortunately, the real-life gig wouldn't get you amped about the fantasy production if Tulo is hitting first in the order. Granted, if he were to beat the immense odds and stay healthy, you'd likely get 100+ runs. But, I fear you would not get 30 homers (his job and goals would change), you would not get 100 RBIs, and he has ZERO chance of racking up steals at this point (a grand total of 14 since finishing with 11 in 2010). As a fantasy owner you're praying that Toronto has Tulo anywhere else in their lineup.
• Cincinnati Reds - Ah, Billy Hamilton. After two seasons of incredibly bad hitting and on-base work, all the overzealous adoration from fantasy players is down to a slow drip. Yes, you can run. But, if you insist on a sub-.280 OBP, it doesn't really matter. The Reds are finally coming to that conclusion, as well. Hamilton is on his last chance with Cincy and it's not helping matters that he is currently M.I.A. with a shoulder issue that dates back to last summer. If by the grace of God he holds onto the top spot to begin the season, then you can take a flier on him. But, he could very easily slide to the very bottom of the order or even get sent to the minor leagues by mid-May. In other words, he MUST bat lead-off to even come off as a fantasy starter for 2016. Do not over-invest.
• St. Louis Cardinals - Every year it appears that the Redbirds will finally get caught. We assume that they can't survive the latest injury. They can't survive with these mid-tier minor league talents. Surely, they can't get a rebound season out of that veteran, right? Nearly every season they prove us wrong. For 2016, a quick look at their starting nine shouldn't scare anyone. Both Matt Holliday and Yadier Molina are descending vets. Both Brandon Moss and Matt Adams are struggling for fantasy relevancy. At shortstop, the just lost Jhonny Peralta (thumb) for the first half of the season. And, their best hitter, Matt Carpenter, doesn't have a fixed spot in the batting order. Is he a 3? Back to the top of the order? Might he even hit 4th? And, how does all of this affect both Kolten Wong and Stephen Piscotty? There are about a dozen possible permutations with this lineup and we're unlikely to get any final decisions until the last week of camp. Five-to-six guys could have altered statistical expectations depending on where they land in the lineup. For those who live at the altar of projections, it's difficult to feel comfortable with anyone's expected stats, right now.
You can hear Kyle each weeknight on 'The SiriusXM Fantasy Drive' from 7-10 ET, Sirius 210, XM 87.
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