Spring Numbers That DO Matter by Kyle Elfrink

You've all heard it and you've all read it ... training camp numbers don't matter. It's a refrain that thunders from the mountain tops throughout the exhibition seasons in Arizona and Florida. It's an old stand-by and one that I've also been victim to invoking over and over again. But, the adage deserves a fresh update.

What you should be hearing and reading is that a vast majority of training camp numbers don't matter.

Proven vets who flirt with the Mendoza line ... top 50 starting pitchers who get blasted ... unproven rookie hitters who club eight home runs ... all of these often get more attention than they deserve. And, when that concerned fantasy owner comes out, many of us lazily retort, 'Training camp numbers don't matter.' And, most of the time, we're right. Still, with games beginning this week and continuing throughout the month, there are things worth following, developments that deserve a read, and, yes, numbers that do matter.

Here are 13 numbers to pay attention to over the next 30 days ...

The Number of Plate Appearances for Byron Buxton ...

There are a variety of reasons to follow the number of times that one of baseball's best prospects goes to the plate this spring. Buxton is being handed the centerfield job for Minnesota and he needs all the reps he can get. Need we remind anyone out there that in 129 at-bats last season, Buxton made 102 outs (44 via the whiff!) against 27 hits? The Twins MUST give their 22-year old all the chances he can get ... especially, if he's struggling. Also, if Buxton is coming up with 70+ at-bats in exhibition play, that means he's also remaining healthy. That issue has been a continual bugaboo throughout his early pro career. I care more about this number than any of the actual numbers that may come out of the at-bats. He needs to play, he needs to face as many different pitchers as possible, and he needs to stay on the field.

The Number of Hits for Pablo Sandoval and Hanley Ramirez ...

Please, just remind all of us who you used to be! Sandoval is only drawing zoo-like crowds because of his barrel-sized gut ... the arriving eyeballs have nothing to do with his bat. From a pure fantasy-perspective, no one appears interested in Kung Fu Panda after his hitting disaster last season (a batting mark under-.250, an OBP under-.300, and a SLG under-.370) and now, even he doesn't appear to be interested in turning things around. Even a simple .280 spring mark with a few pops might provide some measure of faith. As for Ramirez, his '15 was just as weak (the same sub-.250 batting mark and under-.300 OBP that plagued Sandoval). He's making yet another position switch (this time to 1B) and could fly up boards with a big spring full of liners and safties. If either of these two push their way to a batting mark over-.300, expect to come across a plethora of late-March assessments that call them 'sleepers.'

The Number of Successful Innings for Mat Latos ...

Latos is a fantasy tombstone, right now. His opening four-year run of a pitching has been largely forgotten. From 2010-2013, he owned a strong 51-35 record, with a collective 3.27 ERA, a 1.16 WHIP, and a K/9 of 8.4. Of course, since then, he's bounced around (four teams, two trades, and a release) and been injured (just 37 total starts over '14 and '15). Now, he's landed with one last chance in Chicago. The White Sox have a definite opening and would like for Latos to win the 5th starters' job over inconsistent youngster, Erik Johnson. To do so, he really just needs to pitch like 90% of his old self, stay out of the trainers' room, and show he has 180+ innings left in the tank. Remember, too, he's still just 28. Even just a few appearances with two shutout innings on an afternoon in Arizona will be a big positive for the righty.

The Number of Game Appearances for Michael Brantley ...

No matter how healthy Brantley somehow feels, I expect that this number will be quite low. Early estimations said that the All-Star could be out until early-July because of his severe shoulder injury (that actually started to affect him during spring training, a year ago). He's been doing some light work and saying all the right things over the last few weeks, but he's still extremely iffy for the start the season. As such, he's become a hugely questionable commodity in fantasy circles. Again, I don't suspect that the Tribe will give him a whole of appearances in March, but even a few cameos could totally change his timetable and fantasy value for 2016.

The Number of At-Bats Vs. Left-Handed Pitchers for Michael Conforto ...

The Mets are absolutely set to hand their starting left-fielders' job to their heralded youngster, but will it be a true full-time gig or more along the lines of, only when a righty is on the hill? Last year, in his first go-around, Conforto was never even given the opportunity to take cuts against southpaws. A full 179 of his 194 total plate appearances took place with a right-hander working the game. Alejandro De Aza is the most likely substitute, but the idea of always sitting Conforto against left-handers is not etched in stone. He should get some looks in the spring and the more the Mets embrace the idea in March, the more they are likely to embrace it in April and beyond.

The Number of Defensive Miscues in Left-Field for Kyle Schwarber ...

The Cubs have a crowded outfield. The Cubs also have a crowded catcher situation. Both of those matter to Schwarber. The rotund slugger is a life-long backstop, but he will be used mostly in the outfield this season. His bat has got to play, but how much does it get to play? If his defense in LF is a mess (like it was last year), he'll be removed for a better mitt in the latter innings. That will cause plenty of missed opportunities for the highly-drafted bopper. If Arizona provides defensive hardships, Schwarber may find himself short of the 500 - even 400 - plate appearances that his most strident backers seem to be expecting.

The Number of Innings Caught for Devin Mesoraco ...

For any player, the year after a serious hip injury, is one full of question marks. But, for a guy who straps on extra gear and gets up-and-down 150 times a game, plus sits in a crouch ... the question marks are bolded. Mesoraco never could play through a 'hip impingement' last year, finally succumbing to surgery in late June. He's back now, claiming he's healthy and ready for a full-load. Unfortunately, the nature of spring training will give us few answers on exactly how close to 100% he truly is. We'd all love to see back-to-back games with 6 innings of work behind the plate, but that's quite unlikely. At the very least, it would be a positive sign if Mesoraco gets the usual amount of spring work that is afforded to a team's every day catcher. That would put the Reds' main man somewhere in the range of 85-90 innings of work in Arizona.

The Number in the Batting Order for Yunel Escobar ...

The Angels got tongues wagging earlier this week with the news that they favored having their newcomer batting just ahead of clubbing monsters like Mike Trout, Albert Pujols, and Kole Calhoun. His career-work in the OBP category (.350) doesn't make the idea so out-of-the-ordinary, although he has wildly fluctuated, both up and down, from that career mark. Overall, he's actually received more work as a lead-off man than many might realize. For his career, his 242 games at the top spot in the order rank 2nd only to his 293 games in the two-hole. If you see him holding onto the lead-off job throughout camp, it's reason enough to vault Escobar up the ladder at 3B and into the top 15 at the hot corner.

The Number of Home Runs for Corey Dickerson ...

As soon as the news broke that Dickerson was leaving the confines of Coors Field and moving to the Trop, his evaluations for the upcoming season took a nose dive. He's never hit away from Denver (a nearly-.400 OPS difference at high-altitude against every other spot in the baseball-playing world) and he's heading to yard that isn't considered any sort of hitters' yard. But, as some have pointed out, Tampa's ballpark actually has played well for left-handed power hitters with a 3-year park factor for HR/LH at 116 (Coors was just 110). Still, such numbers can't overcome the large-field assumption that Dickerson is set to struggle in the American League. Yet, if he finds a way to power out four-to-six round-trippers in camp, some of those loud fears will be muted ... a little.

The Number of Walks and Strikeouts for Matt Moore ...

Here's another Tampa player to follow. Moore has always contained superstardom in his left arm (even after Tommy John surgery), but controlling that firepower has been the issue. With over 70 MLB starts and over 400 innings of MLB work to his name, Moore's BB/9 stands at a concerning 4.1. But, there is, indeed, a 'but,' here! The 26-year old returned for a dozen turns last year and lowered his BB/9 to 3.3. Of course, he also saw his K/9 dip to an unheralded 6.6. That's not something to be truly excited about. So, as we march through March and, with the expectation that Moore, handles low-double digit innings, let's see if he can keep the walk-rate near 3 while also owning a whiff-rate near 8. If those two come to pass, you've got a truly interesting springtime development.

The Number of Strikeouts for Joc Pederson ...

Even when the Dodgers' rookie was pounding baseballs deep into the Chavez Ravine night, he was also whiffing an incredibly high rate. His much bally-hooed first half featured a punchout in more than one-third of his total at-bats. Of course, careless owners ignored such a damaging rate because they were getting an unsustainable amount of home runs. Once the homers hit the skids in the second half, those same careless owners suddenly switched gears and started to fear all of Pederson's swings-and-misses. Yet, he whiffed at almost the same exact rate as before (63 in 180 late-summer ABs vs. 107 in 300 early-summer ABs). Unless he totally fails in camp, Pederson should have the starting job in center for LA. But, he'll only have people excited if he's hitting home runs ... and, showing at least some cut in the number of whiffs.

The Number of Scoreless Frames for Jeff Samardzjia ...

'Shark' might have been the worst, healthy pitcher, in baseball last year. He took the ball every five days, but got totally blasted on his way to a horrible 4.96 ERA and 1.29 WHIP combo during his one year with the White Sox. He was often terrible from the first pitch of the game, posting a hideous 5.44 ERA in innings 1-3 last year. He won't be expected to go more than three innings in many upcoming spring starts, so just seeing a string of zeroes posted in the runs column on the scoreboard would give fantasy owners a fresh boost of hope for his needed turnaround in San Francisco.

The Number of Games Played by Anthony Rendon ...

A year ago at this time, Rendon would tease, promise, and stutter his way through Washington's camp. A supposedly minor knee issue became 'The White Elephant of March,' only growing and looming larger, eventually crushing Rendon's chances of a healthy 2015. This wasn't a huge change of a pace for the player. Rendon has spent half of the past decade dealing with an endless array of lower body problems. He needs a healthy dose of action. He needs a run of games without needing a day off. He needs to avoid any missed time, even for 'minor' issues. If those things happen and Rendon sees 20+ games of play, we'll all be back on-board for a rebound showing in 2016.

You can hear Kyle each weeknight on 'The SiriusXM Fantasy Drive' from 7-10 ET, Sirius 210, XM 87.

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