Hi Folks, below is our annual review (2016) on the correlation/predictability for the statistical categories that many of us use in our rotisserie leagues.
Over the next few weeks, many of us are about to draft the fantasy teams that will dictate our state of well being over the summer months! As a statistician, it's my inherent nature to try to stack the percentages in my favor. You can't always be right, but being right more often than wrong can make life a little more manageable. For me, like many of you, that pursuit starts on draft day. With that said, here's my annual posting on using the weighing of scoring categories:
If you play in a Rotisserie league, our software is designed to give you the opportunity to favor the more predictable categories in your league. It's an opportunity to play the percentages of predictability, allowing you to give different weights to each Roto category that relevant to your league scoring. Within the Setup|Edit League Settings section, select the Rotisserie scoring option and check the Advanced option located above the scoring grid. This option will allow you to weigh each Rotisserie category according to your preference. Although most leagues use an equal weighing for each Rotisserie category some leagues do not. Even if your league uses an equal weighing system, it's important to understand that not every statistical category has an equal predictability.
From a predictability standpoint, here is a recent 3 year correlation in forecasting for each of the following player stat categories :
(See more category correlations by clicking here).
In the statistical term of correlation, the range of correlation ranges from -1 to +1, with 1.00 considered a perfect "fit", the better the fit the more reliable the forecast. A .20 is considered a loose correlation, .4 a good correlation, and .6 a very good fit. Thus we know that there is a higher predictability in forecasting Homeruns, Stolen Bases, Pitcher's strikeouts. A Category that offers poor predictability year over year includes ERA. While others in the typical 5x5 arena fall somewhere in-between.
Of note when I ran this for the 2016 weights, there was a improvement in the correlation in Homeruns, Runs Batted In, and Slugging Percentage last season. On the pitching front, there was a decrease in correlation in Wins and ERA in 2015, but WHIP increase in correlation.
For those who would like to play the percentages, for 2016 we suggest the following weighing within these typical categories.
(See more categories for the Advanced settings by clicking here).
Overall, the tweaking discussed above won't change the rankings dramatically, but you will be be increasing the odds of predictability for your team...and whenever there is an statistical advantage to gain, it's something worth exploiting.
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Greg
Mar 6, 16 at 05:33 AM
Our league uses OPS instead of HRs, how do you recommend I weigh the categories?
KHAZAD
Mar 6, 16 at 05:33 AM
Will this article (and most especially the link to other categories) be updated for the current season soon? I find that they change a little bit each year.
Anthony Perri
Mar 6, 16 at 05:33 AM
KHAZAD, Yes they have been updated above for the new season.
GREG, OPS can be found in the link above showing more categories.
Marvin Longabaugh
Mar 6, 16 at 05:33 AM
When will the advanced scoring weights and target season totals be updated for 2015?
Anthony Perri
Mar 6, 16 at 05:33 AM
Hey Marvin, Check the blog this evening for the latest 3 year averages.
Mike
Mar 6, 16 at 05:33 AM
We use Hits + Walks as one of our hitting categories. Would like to see a scoring weight for this specific. I asked for this 2-3 years ago. Thanks for all the help.
Anthony Perri
Mar 6, 16 at 05:33 AM
Mike, what you can do is use OBP. It will come very close to what you are looking for, as the software will shift weight to those with more plate appearances.
Steve
Mar 6, 16 at 05:33 AM
Has this changed for the 2016 season?
Anthony Perri
Mar 6, 16 at 05:33 AM
Yes, the 2016 update was posted earlier this week. Good luck in your Drafts!
Ken
Mar 6, 16 at 05:33 AM
Hi Anthony,
Used your product for years and I highly recommend it to anyone not in my leagues. I have gone back and forth on using these advanced settings. Sometimes I put them in the system and sometimes I don't and, just use them as weight when I'm comparing players for a particular draft pick. Based only on my own experience, I seem to have better luck without using the advanced settings. I don't know, maybe that's because I'm still mentally discounting ERA and AVG on top of what the system does.
My question is, how much of these predictability measures is already baked into the Fantistics projections?
Thanks for your interesting explanations and for continuing to improve the product year after year.
Anthony Perri
Mar 6, 16 at 05:33 AM
Hi Ken, You bring up a very interesting point, which I've actually thought about at lengths in the past. I've come to the realization that even though we can break down what a players stats should be, there will still be variation from that mark regardless with stats that tend to deviate in predictability. So although we tend to come closer in these historically less predictable categories, there will still be more variance than the more predictable categories.
John Evans
Mar 6, 16 at 05:33 AM
Does the advanced category weighiting not work for the MAC version? I cannot find it.
John
Anthony Perri
Mar 6, 16 at 05:33 AM
John, On the Mac version you can change the scoring weight directly in the scoring category area, instead of 1, you can change it to a decimal. Thanks, Antohny