Let it (Miguel) Sano?
Sano is one of the more intriguing options heading into the 2016 season. He is the highest-rated Twin option out in the fantasy landscape, and with good reason. In an 80 game debut for the Twins last season, he slashed .269/.385/.530 and with 162-pace R/HR/RBI of: 93/36/105. Oh and he's not even 23 years old yet. All of that has led to Sano coming in around the 50th ranked player across all formats. There are a few red flags, however. For one, he struck out in 119 of his 335 plate appearances, a lofty 35.5 strikeout rate. Sano also rode a certainly not maintainable BABIP of .396 to support his rather pedestrian .269 batting average. Finally, his HR/FB rate was also a bit high at 26.5 percent.
Let's debunk these one at a time. First, the strikeout rate is certainly high, it would have ranked highest among all qualified hitters in 2015 - but it's not due to poor judgement of the strike zone. On the other hand, it is Sano's impressive patience at the plate that puts him in many two-strike counts. Sano's O-Swing%, would rank in the top 25 if he had enough plate appearances, making him one of the ebst in the game at laying off pitches outside the strike zone in just his rookie season. Also as a counter to his high strikeout rate is his high walk rate. Sano walked 54 times in those 335 plate appearances, good for a 15.8 walk rate that would have ranked sixth in baseball last season.
Second, Sano's BABIP. Yes, it is due for a steep decline, but it could easily settle into the .330 range, given his 24.7 percent line drive rate and 43.2 percent hard hit ball rate. The line drive rate would have ranked tied for 16th in all of baseball, and the hard hit rate would have ranked first. In all of baseball! So yes, the average may drop a bit, but suggesting that he's going to plummet into the low .200s range is silly. A BA around .250 seems reasonable.
Finally, While Sano's HR/FB rate was a bit high - only three hitters were able to turn fly balls into home runs at a higher pace - you did just see the hard hit ball rate, right? If Chris Davis can post four straight seasons with a HR/FB rate over 22% why can't a younger player like Sano?
Overall, Sano seems right in line around that late fifth, early sixth spot with an upside that goes even higher.
The perks of Glen Perkins
Right now, Perkins typically being drafted among the fourth or fifth tier of closers, right around the 15th-20th ranked closer. For a pitcher who has made three consecutive All-Star Games (for whatever that is worth) that seems crazy. Sure, Perkins has ended the season on the DL each of the last two years, but given the volatile nature of the closer position, isn't four months of elite closing worth an 18th round draft pick? In ESPN, he started the mock draft season ranked below Kevin Jepsen! Perkins is healthy coming into the 2016 season, and is coming off of three straight seasons with at least 30 saves and a combined ERA of 3.08 and K/9 of 9.8 - that's borderline elite right there. Perkins is "just" 33 years old. We saw the fossil of Latroy Hawkins getting saves last year, so age is obviously less of a worry at the closing position. Plus, it's not like Perkins is a ticking timebomb, his FIP over the past three seasons (3.11) is nearly identical to that 3.08 ERA. Grab Perkins in any league you can.
Marcus Semien (Pun redacted)
Can you name the only two short stops in 2015 to hit at least .250 with 15 home runs and 10 steals? Carlos Correa is the obvious answer, and since this is Marcus Semien's write up, you can probably guess he was the other, good job reader! Now those are obviously some beautifully cherry-picked cut off points, and Semien was hardly the second-best short stop in fantasy last year, but he was, rather quietly in the top ten, and projects to be again this season (even though he isn't being drafted there). You could also do a lot worse in terms of getting a consistent bat. While never one to go on a massive tear, Semien nearly identical first half/second half splits in 2015, with a .256 average before the break and .259 after. He hit eight home runs before the break and seven after. Only his steals were slightly skewed with seven coming before the break and four after, but remember there are a lot more games before the break than after, as well. For whatever reason, Semien is one of the more boring options out there, but there's not really a good reason for that. He's still only 25 years old, and should contribute in nearly every category this season. Semien is not flashy, but he'll get the job done. Similar to other players like this, he's a good pairing for one of those high-risk/high-reward types at his position like Ian Desmond.
Sonny skies, or Gray ones?
Sonny Gray is one of the harder pitchers in baseball to get a read on these days. If he pitched 10-15 years ago, we would all be calling him an absolute stud: A 26-year-old with two standout seasons including a third-place finish in last year's Cy Young race. However, with all the stats we have these days, he profiles a bit more like a Matt Cain circa 2012 or Johnny Cueto circa 2014. All those pitchers put up great numbers, but turned the hands on the more analytically-inclined fantasy players, as they continued to sport FIPs that didn't match their ERA and rather pedestrian strikeout rates. For Fray, that has come in the form of a career 2.88 ERA compared to a 3.36 FIP, a split that has only gotten more and more noticeable each of his three seasons in the big leagues. Gray's strikeout rate has also dropped with each passing season, coming in at 7.31 last season, ranking just below Anthony DeSciafani... Here's the thing, though. Matt Cain went 16-5 with a 2.79 ERA in 2012 and Johnny Cueto finished second in the Cy Young in 2014, going 20-9 and sporting a career-high strikeout rate. Sometimes assuming that pitchers are going to fall apart based strictly on FIP and strikeout rate is a dangerous game, especially when the pitcher has as nasty "stuff" as Gray has. That being said, I'm totally OK getting burned by some other guy getting a great season out of Gray in 2016. I'll stick to Cole Hamels/Tyson Ross if I'm taking a pitcher in that range at all.
Carlos Go-go-gomez
In 41 games in Houston after being traded from Milwaukee, Gomez slashed .242/.288/.383 a far cry from the .277/.336/.483 stud that owners had come to expect in the previous three seasons. Of course, that 41 games stretch wasn't far off his 74-game production in the first portion of the 2015 season, which was already an off year for the 30-year old outfielder. The question of whether 2015 was a one-year blip in the radar or a sign of an impending decline from Gomez will be at the forefront of all owners debating whether to draft Gomez or not in 2016. The main hindrance for Gomez in 2015 was health, as he was bothered by enough ailments throughout the year that I'd be shocked if his homepage wasn't WebMD by the end of the season. The injuries Gomez suffered were also among the highest on the list of injuries no fantasy owner wants to see: Wrist (saps power better than any other injury); hamstring (saps speed better than any other injury). There's a decent chance that if Gomez had simply suffered a broken leg and missed the entire 2015 season, his stick would actually be higher coming into 2016 than it is right now - and that's kind of bizarre. Heading into 2015 Gomez was a borderline top ten player overall, whereas now he is borderline top 20... just among outfielders. Looking at the advanced stats for a guy like Gomez who played through injuries so often last year is a bit tricky, as of course his line drive rate and hard hit ball rate are going to be down with a dinged up wrist. It is interesting to note that he stole 10 bases in just 41 games for the far more steal-friendly Astros last season, and 25 steals would go a long way in making Gomez worth a sixth-round slot. There's obviously a lot of risk tied to Gomez, as many have noted, hitters of his profile (big swinging, high strikeout rate) can really fall off a cliff when they start to lose it. That being said, his ceiling is higher than anyone other than Nelson Cruz outside the top ten outfielders, so if you're the type of girl/guy who roles that way, Gomez might be your dude in 2016.
Battle Royale: Collin McHugh vs. Lance McCullers
It is somewhat crazy that a pitcher who went 19-7 last season is in a rank battle with one who went 6-7, but that is the case among two Houston starters, as the McDouble (rim shot) of McHugh and McCullers are both going in the 14th-16th round of ten-team mixed leagues. So if it's coming up to your turn on the draft board and the McDouble is sitting there, who should you take?
McHugh has the longer track record of the two, although that's not saying much. After finally breaking out as a 27-year old in 2014, McHugh backed it up in 2015 with a solid season, mostly on the strength of his win total. McHugh's ERA jumped from 2.73 to 3.89 from 2014 to 2015, due in large part to a 51-point jump in BABIP. McHugh's FIP did rise slightly - 3.11 to 3.58 - but far less than the gap in ERA. The more disturbing trend was a significant drop in strikeout rate, as McHugh went from striking out an impressive 9.14 batters per nine in 2014 to a far more pedestrian 7.56 batters per nine in 2015. This despite getting hitters to swing at a much higher percentage of pitches outside the zone in 2015 (34.5% up from 28.9%). This makes for an interesting dilemma for potential owners. Should they believe the drop in strikeout rate and rise in FIP (which usually go together, of course), or should the read into the fact that McHugh actually got more batters to go out of the zone, and was also messing around with pitches throughout the year, throwing his cutter more than ever, and has the feel of a pitcher who is always honing his craft and will continue to do so in 2016? Put that thought on hold.
McCullers made his debut in 2015 as a 21-year-old, going just 6-7, but with a sexy 3.22/3.26 ERA/FIP. The young righty also struck out 9.24 batters per nine after flying up through the minor leagues, throwing only 32 innings above High A before making his debut at the big league level. He had a strikeout to walk ratio of 3:1, and no scary peripherals to suggest any sort of decline in 2016. Of course with McCullers, the red flags are two-fold. For one, he was planning on entering the season with an innings limit around 170 IP, which would bite into his value as a mid-round pitcher. Then, it was announced that he was going to start the season on the DL, which may sounds worse, but given he already was going to be on an innings limit, only really hurts in the sense that he may not be quite the same McCullers right off the bat to start the season. McCullers did throw a bullpen session Wednesday and felt good, and basically will simply have his version of spring training in April in the minor leagues. The injury, as long as it doesn't linger at all, may even be a blessing in disguise.
When comparing these two, many would probably say that McHugh is the safe play, while McCullers is the high-risk/high-reward play. I actually think it's the opposite. I think McCullers will debut in May, go 170 innings of 3.30ish ERA, striking out about a batter per inning, and giving a very good return for where he is being drafted. McHugh on the other hand, is a late-bloomer who is still in the tinkering phase of his career despite being 28 years old. I think there is a fair amount of risk involved, and the ceiling isn't high enough to cancel out that risk. In the McDouble Battle Royale (with cheese), I'll go with McCullers. (And end this paragraph before any more bad puns find their way in here.)
Around the league
Ryan Braun
Braun was scratched from Thursday's lineup, but should return by Sunday. The news is a bit worrisome for Braun owners, as the soreness was in Braun's surgically-repaired lower back, but the fact that he is 4-for-7 so far this spring should quell those fears a little bit. Braun had an excellent 2015 season, going for 25 home runs and 24 steals, to go with a .285 average. There were no peripherals that suggested any decline to be expected this season, as his line drive rate and hard hit ball rate were right in line with career norms. Braun's HR/FB rate was a tad higher than his career rate, but remember he was also slowed late season with the aforementioned back injury. And really that's the biggest worry, Braun isn't getting younger and he's coming off back surgery. It's hard to imagine Braun stealing another 24 bases as a 32-year-old in 2016, but 25-30 home runs with a .275 average and solid RuBIn production should be expected, solid value for where he is being drafted right now.
Jacoby Ellsbury
Ellsbury's 2015 season was directly split before and after his injury. Before his knee injury in late May, Ellsbury was producing at an elite rate, slashing .324/.412/.372 with 29 runs and 14 steals in 37 games. After his injury, Ellsbury slashed .224/.269/.332 with only 37 runs and seven steals in 74 games. Despite that terrible post-injury line, in the past couple weeks I had started to talk myself into Ellsbury a bit. Injuries aren't always the worst thing in fantasy, especially if it comes at a position where there is some depth. Getting top-level production from a guy then throwing him on the DL a couple weeks and replacing him is a serviceable method and part of the reasoning guys like George Springer go so high. But the fact that the injuries are already starting up with Ellsbury is the perfect "Oh yeah, it's Ellsbury" splash of cold water to scare me off again in 2016. It's like when you start thinking about calling up your ex and him./her you see them post one of the dramatic, self-centered Facebook rants that drove you so crazy when you were together, and you know better than to slide back. Or in the words of How I Met Your Mother, "The Re-return."
Derek Norris
Norris owners got good news on Thursday, as Austin Hedges, Norris' biggest competition for the backstop spot for the Padres was sent to the minor leagues. Hedges may well be the future behind the plate for the Padres, but Norris will get the gig to start the season, and thus will get enough games to hold eligibility later in the season if Norris is moved to a different spot so Hedges can catch. Despite the hold on the starting spot, Norris doesn't offer much of the upside that some of the other catchers being drafted in the same tier as him. Norris is in a crummy lineup, in a crummy hitting environment (even though he hit better at home than on the road last season), and with the crummier split: Feasting on the far less frequent lefties. Norris should reach double-digit home runs, but his lofty 2014 batting average looks a bit like an anomaly, and his plate discipline trended in the wrong direction in his first season with a full catching gig in 2015.
Michael Conforto
Conforto missed Thursday's game and will be out 2-3 days with back spasms. While Spring Training is often useless, this is a perfect example of when it isn't. Conforto is getting a lot of buzz this pre-draft season, as the rookie slashed .270/.335/.506 in 56 games with the Mets. Conforto raced through the minor leagues and didn't have any peripherals that screamed for regression off those slashes. Conforto's hard hit rate (40.9%) is borderline elite, and when paired with a solid line drive rate (22.7%), could actually mean a rise in batting average, if anything. His walk rate is solid, he strikes out a bit much but not much more than the rest of the league these days, and all signs pointed to a breakout. HOWEVER, the tricky back injury. Luckily this is not a strain or pull, and spasms tend to linger less than other injuries, but this definitely needs to be monitored. I'm not ready to back off Conforto as a breakout candidate, but pay attention to how he says he's feeling leading into your draft date.
Devin Mesoraco
Mesoraco has been getting extra at bats in minor league games this spring to make up for his late start to the action. The Reds have said the 27-year-old backstop will be with the major league team for Opening Day, but might be eased into the full-time catcher role. This is probably a wise decision for the Reds, who don't have much to play for, and don't want to ruin one of their most prized assets. Mesoraco may or may not be that prized asset, as he has one outstanding season, but that's about it. After his 2014 campaign in which he hit 25 home runs and hit .273, Mesoraco was devastated by injuries in 2015, making his status in 2016 very much up in the air. Prognosticating off injuries can be tricky, and although Mesoraco struggled last season, that doesn't mean much. What is more interesting/limiting is that his HR/FB rate and BABIP both seem due for a bit of a drop from his breakout 2014. Even if Mesoraco comes back fully healthy, when accounting for time missed early in the year, and shaking off some rust, 20 home runs seem like a reach, and the average likely won't top .250. He's being drafted with those ceilings being more the expectations, so I'd temper expectations for the Reds catcher this season.
Asdrubal Cabrera
Cabrera will return to the Mets lineup Sunday, coming off a coupe weeks out of the lineup with a strained patellar tendon (knee, for those non-doctors among us). Cabrera has been a pretty steady contributor over the past five years, hitting at least 14 home runs each and every season - something not many short stops can say. Cabrera's batting average has fluctuated a bit over those five seasons: .273, .270, .242, .241, .265; with each dip matching a dip in BABIP (go figure). Cabrera's career BABIP lines up much closer with those .270ish seasons, and drafting Cabrera is about as safe a way to get 12-15 home runs with a .260-.275 batting average that you can find. Although it feels like Cabrera has been around since the Neolithic Age, he's only 30, and should have a few more good seasons in him. His ceiling is certainly lower than some below him, and you might be scared off by a crowded Mets infield, but Cabrera owners will likely not regret taking him if he inevitably slides due to the complete lack of sexy appeal of Cabrera.
Yasmani Grandal
Grandal was supposed to return to the lineup Thursday, but wasn't even allowed to swing a bit or hold a ball instead, with the timeline pushed back in what is not great news for the Dodgers backstop. The good news, or at least less bad news, is that the injury is a forearm injury, much better than a wrist-type injury. Wrist injuries sap power with the best of them, and power is Grandal's best asset. He now has back-to-back 15 home run seasons, and that's with injuries slowing Grandal significantly in the second half of last year. If he can shake this forearm injury, and play the whole season, 20 home runs is almost a guarantee, a rarity behind the dish. That being said, home runs are about all you get from Grandal, and I kind of like a multi-category guy like Realmuto who is being drafted behind Grandal right now a bit more in head-to-head leagues. In roto, Grandal should remain a top-12 catcher.
Daniel Norris
Norris has non-displaced back fractures, and won't pitch for five days it was reported Thursday. Norris was already on the very edge of fantasy relevance, and this obviously does him no favors. Norris got a lot of hype throughout last season as his name was in the headlines quite often. However, his performance has been far from worth the attention so far, as he posted a mediocre 4.63 FIP and 6.75 K/9 rate in 60.0 2015 innings. Given his high walk rate, that strikeout rate is just not worth the hassle. And now that he's bumping into injuries again, I'm staying away even in the deepest and darkest of fantasy leagues. Even if Norris does have his spot saved for him int the Tigers rotation, I'm not planning on streaming him until he really proves himself.
Draft Advisor: bring our winning strategy (Serpentine / Auction) to your draft. Our player rankings adjust as players are selected, adhering to the changing dynamics of your draft. After a player is selected/drafted, the software will display/suggest the best players remaining. Purchase Today!
