A's Outfield Platoon Part II
Last week I wrote about the the top three most likely players to get run in the A's massive outfield platoon: Josh Reddick, Billy Burns, and Kris Davis; but with the way the A's platoon, the other three out there: Mark Canha, Chris Coghlan and Coco Crisp merit fantasy discussion, as well.
Mark Canha
Anyone who read this site last year knows I've been banging the drum for Mark Canha for a while now, so it comes as no surprise that I will continue to bang the drum for him this preseason. Canha may not have a surefire starting spot on the A's right now, but as noted, there will be plenty of platoons and chances for him to play in left field and at first base. Canha managed 16 home runs, 61 runs, 70 RBI and seven steals in 485 plate appearances in 2015, and given it was his first taste of the majors, it's fair to say those numbers may improve a bit in what will probably be a similar number of plate appearances this season. Canha had a respectable 19.0/49.7/.31.3 soft/medium/hard hit ball slash last season, and his HR/FB rate was far from inflated at 11.4 percent. His BABIP is due for an improvement if anything, especially against left-handed batters, as he hit just .254 on balls in play against lefties last season, as noted by David Wiers on Fangraphs. Due to his role on the A's as of right now, Canha is limited to a "keep an eye on" level in ten-team mixed leagues, with a deserved spot any team deeper than that. Ten-team owners should also have him flagged and if he starts working his way into that lineup regularly, pick him up. Canha is also mighty interesting in daily leagues if you create your roster after he has been announced into the starting lineup.
Chris Coghlan
The A's most recent notable addition, Coghlan will be doing a bit of everything for the A's. He's likely to spend time at second base, third base, center field and right field. The 30 year-old is approaching journeyman status, but had a sneaky strong season in 2015. He hit 16 home runs and stole 11 bases, doing so in just over 500 plate appearances. Expect his Pas to drop slightly in 2016, but not egregiously, to the point that he loses all value. Coghlan is one of the classic cases of a hitter due for negative regression in one area and positive regression in another, that basically all cancels out. Coghlan's BABIP last season was .284, a far cry from his career .314 BABIP. This led in part to a career-low .250 batting average which should see some positive regression. On the other hand, his HR/FB rate was 13.7, once again a far cry from his career HR/FB rate of 8.5. Part of this was due to a change in his batted ball profile, as he traded line drives for fly balls in 2015 (LD% 2014: 25.6, 2015: 20.1; FB% 2014: 31.5, 2015: 34.1), but part will likely see regression to the more typical Coghlan season. Expect around 10 home runs and 10 steals with a .270 BA-type season from Coghlan.
Coco Crisp
Last, and probably least, we get to Coco Crisp. At 36 years old, and always one of the more injury-prone players, the formerly awesome Crisp was just a shell of himself in 2015, getting to the plate only 139 times, and posting a slash line of .175/.252/.222 "good" for a wRC+ of 35. While it's hard to image Crisp being that bad again in 2016, it's hard to imagine him having any real value on anything but the deepest, darkest fantasy leagues. Even if healthy, Crisp should be on the crap end of the platoon system in Oakland, and he has lost any power he once had. Maybe he can sneak his way into 8-10 steals, but if you're that desperate for steals, man you got some issues. Sadly, Crisp's fantasy days are behind him.
Brian Dozier's pull rate is a doozy
Dozier is one of the more intriguing fantasy options heading into 2016, in my opinion. The Twins second baseman increased his home run total for the third straight season reaching 28 dingers, amazing longtime fans who saw him never post more than nine home runs in a single season in the minor leagues. However, he also saw his walk rate drop back down, and had an awful second half. One of the more interesting notes on Dozier is the rate at which his pull rate is just skyrocketing in recent seasons. His pull rate has gone from 42.0 in 2013 to 53.8 in 2014 to a league-leading (by a decent margin) 60.2 in 2015. Pitchers, or maybe more appropriately managers and fielders, seem to have caught on to this phenomenon, and Dozier started to get killed by the shift in the second half of last season. His average dropped to .210 in the second half, and although some might explain that by his .245 BABIP, that makes sense. If the fielders know where you're going to hit the ball, it's a lot easier to not let the ball drop into play. Dozier has said he's trying a bit of a new swing path this spring, but hasn't made any notions to looking to go to the opposite field more often. Dozier should still hit around 20-25 home runs in 2016, a huge value for a second baseman, but don't be surprised if his average hovers around the .240 range again, and maybe even a bit lower. Take him in the fourth or fifth round at your own risk.
Lord Byron Buxton
The five-tool 20 year old let some folks down in his 2015 debut, but expect better things from Buxton in 2016. For one, the Twins have said all the right things about giving him a legit chance to prove himself in centerfield this season, and with his defense, even if he takes a few weeks to get going, his bat should be in the lineup pretty much every day. That should take some of the pressure off Buxton, a prospect who has a lot to live up to in Minnesota. There's also the matter that Buxton has taken a little time to adjust at each level along the way in the minors before taking off. In his first 12 games at AA in 2015, he slashed just .180/.241/.300 with 14 strikeouts to just four walks. In his final 46 games at AA, he slashed .310/.379/.540 with 37 strikeouts and 22 walks (and 18 steals in 19 attempts). Adjusting to major league pitching is obviously a much bigger task, and one that may take a month or two in 2016 even, but with the value Buxton should have from steals alone, he'll be worth the roster spot while he figures things out, and once he does, he may end up being a huge late-round steal.
Who's on first? No seriously, who's on first?
The Astros race for first base has only gotten cloudier this spring, as four candidates duke it out for an important position in a strong lineup - something fantasy players will want to watch.
Jon Singleton
The guy the Astros want to take the position by the horns is having the quietest spring of the bunch, hitting just 2-for-16, albeit with a home run. That's about as typical as it gets for the hefty lefty, as his career home run rate is matched only by his career strikeout rate. Singleton struggled mightily at the major league level in 2015, netting just 58 plate appearances for the season as a whole, and slashing just .191/.328/.298 in a far from impressive season. That being said, Singleton did hit 22 home runs in 102 games in Triple A, but he has the stink of a AAAA hitter who just can never put it together at the big leagues when pitchers find the holes in your swing just so much easier. Color me very skeptical as to Singleton's value in 2016.
Players we're more aggressive on vs. ADP in our software:
Matt Duffy/Tyler White
Duffy and White are third baseman by name,but could move across the diamond should the Astros need so in 2016. Duffy is a 27-year-old career minor leaguer, but he did hit .294/.366./.484 in Triple A last season, and in an EXTREMELY small sample 3-for-9 with a double and three RBI at the major league level last season. He's slashing .273/.429/1.091 this spring, with three home runs, a commodity we all know the Astros value highly. That being said, I think it's this next guy who has the better chance to slide across the diamond should the `Stros be put in the position of looking at either of these guys. Tyler White is two years younger than White, and although he doesn't have the power Duffy has, still managed to slug .559 in Triple A last season. He hit just seven home runs, but hit .362 and showed an excellent eye at the plate. White has dominated at every level coming up, and is hitting .353 with a home run in spring training already. White may not get the nod at first to start the season, but don't be surprised if he's on the major league roster sooner than later.
A.J. Reed
Of all the options listed here, it's Reed who should pique the most interest in fantasy players. Reed, just 22 years old, slashed .340/.432./.612 across Single A and Double A last season, with a .638 slug in Single A and a .571 slug in Double A. Reed hit a combined 34 home runs at those two levels, and the only thing holding Reed back at this point appears to be a lack of experience. Reed is hitting .308 this spring, but doesn't have any long balls like the rest of this crew can point to. That being said, he has by far the best long-term (and by long-term I mean May or June of this season) value of any of these four, and should be stashed in deeper leagues. I don't see him breaking spring with the first base job, but if he hits like he did in the minors and Singleton inevitably struggles the first month or so, Reed may be up in the bigs sooner than later, and should be a productive bat in a strong lineup down in Houston.
Player news
Gerrit Cole
The Pirates presumed ace is set to make his spring debut on Sunday, good news for owners (both current and prospective) who may have been concerned about a possible rib injury heading into the season. The 6'4" righty is possibly a bit overhyped by ESPN ranks, but is a solid top 10-15 pitcher across baseball. Cole has been an absolute rock since his debut in 2013, and last season was his best yet. There is a bit of reason to believe he may give up a few more home runs in 2016, but he also should take another small step forward, as he is just 25 years old. Cole is a stud.
Justin Upton
The Tigers left fielder left Wednesday's game with an ankle injury, but it was merely precautionary, and he could return to the lineup as a DH on Thursday. Upton is mighty intriguing in 2016, as he leaves the cavernous Petco Park for the slightly less cavernous Comerica Park this year. Petco was technically better for home runs in 2015 than Comerica, but we all know that was simply because of Ian Kennedy... All kidding aside, park factors can vary year-to-year, and you'd be hard-pressed to find a hitter not a bit excited to be leaving Petco. Upton still managed 26 home runs and 19 steals last season, and is one of the most consistent performers in the outfield. Something like 30 home runs and 15 steals isn't out of the question from the 28-year-old - not far off of what higher-rated outfielders like George Springer or Charlie Blackmon (in reverse).
Sonny Gray
Gray was named the Athletics Opening Day starter on Wednesday, not particularly invigorating or surprising news, but it does give us an opportunity to look closer at the A's ace. Among qualified pitchers in 2015, Gray ranked 8th in FIP-ERA, not a great sign for a pitcher being drafted by many teams as their ace. Of course, FIP is not the be-all and end-all of metrics, and Gray does pitch in a spacious stadium in front of a decent defense, and could easily have a Cueto/Greinke couple years in him. That being said, look at some of the names surrounding him: Dan Haren, Scott Kazmir, Wei-Yin Chen, John Lackey, Yovani Gallardo, Jake Arrieta, and R.A. Dickey. With the exception of Arrieta, those are a lot of veterans getting by on guile, who seem ready to regress. Gray is a 26-year-old seemingly in his prime who shouldn't have to rely on guile and the like. When watching Gray, he has one of the nastiest wipeout curves, and he has very much the look of an ace. Just be careful about that FIP...
Freddie Freeman
Freeman won't be in the Braves lineup on Thursday, but the day off is scheduled, not due to any set backs to his wrist injury, more good news for Freeman. Wrist injuries about as nerve-wracking an injury as a fantasy owner can see their player suffer, as it usually isn't bad enough to knock the player onto the DL for too long, but lingers past the DL stint and just completely saps the player of any power. So far that doesn't seem to be the case with Freeman, though, as he has two home runs and a double in spring training so far. Still, I'd be a bit cautious with Freeman, for a player that relies so heavily on his amazing line drive rate season after season, if he lost a bit of that power and those line drives turned into grounders or pop ups, his value would plummet.
Yu Darvish
Darvish tossed 20 pitches in the Ranger bullpen on Wednesday, just furthering hope that he will return by mid-May for Texas. The 29-year-old seems to be creeping up higher and higher on draft boards, and with good reason. When healthy, Darvish is a stud, flashing a career strikeout rate of 11.22 batters per nine. Again, that's his career rate! His career FIP is 3.17 and xFIP 3.11 - when healthy he's a stud. If you are in a league with a DL spot or two, and especially in head-to-head leagues, don't be afraid to draft Darvish pretty early and reap the benefits down the stretch. I don't think it's crazy to make him a 10th or 11th round pick, ahead of the likes of Michael Pineda or Masahiro Tanaka (both of whom hold plenty of their own injury risk).
Marco Estrada
You know how there are just some names that no many how much time you spend doing preseason research or how many mock drafts you do, you just skim over every time? Estrada is that guy for me, but it's not my job to skim over names, so he's your Marco Estrada news for the day. The Jays righty has been making good progress in his rehab (back), and is on pace to start the season with the club. Estrada threw on Wednesday, after tossing live BP over the weekend, and should appear in-game for the first time this spring on Tuesday. For my money, Estrada is possibly the biggest regression candidate in all of baseball in 2016, with a FIP of 4.40 and an xFIP of 4.93 belying an ERA of 3.13 last season. His tiny strikeout rate (6.51 per nine), and an absurd opponent BABIP of .216 in 2015 should treat owners poorly in 2016.
Aaron Altherr
Altherr underwent surgery on his wrist on Wednesday, putting him out four-to-six months. My colleagues here have written about the Altherr injury, and how it sadly derails what was looking like an intriguing option for a breakout in the desolate wasteland that is Philadelphia fantasy baseball. Altherr does indeed have intrigue, but outside of NL-Only leagues with DL slots, he is now completely off-the-radar for potential drafters. That being said, he is worth monitoring throughout his rehab, as a pick up a couple days before he's set to return could pay off nicely down the stretch. Of course, with wrist injuries one never knows, but with Altherr's relative youth, the injury should be easier to bounce back from than the Mark Teixeira's of the world.
Santiago Casilla
The Giants closer returned to pitching activities Wednesday, throwing a 30-pitch bullpen session, returning from an illness that held him out earlier this week. Casilla is heading into the 2016 season with a somewhat steady hold on the closer's gig in San Francisco, and offers some intrigue for owners looking for some cheap saves. In ESPN's ranks, Casilla is the closer with the lowest ADP who isn't in a battle for saves. The Giants look like a team that should have plenty of save opportunities, and even if Casilla isn't going to win any ERA or strikeout competitions, your starters determine those categories so much more that Casilla offers great late-round value this year. And if he's replaced as the closer at some point during the season, all it cost you was one of your last two or three picks (in mixed-leagues at least). GO back and look at your last couple drafts' last picks - there's a lot of volatility there.
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