Preseason Prep - March 8th, 2016

Philadelphia Phillies

My Cousin Vinny

Vincent Velasquez, the centerpiece in the trade that sent Ken Giles to Houston, tossed 3 scoreless innings on Monday, getting off to a solid start in his bid to make the opening day rotation. He allowed 3 hits, 1 walk, and struck out 3 Pirates while inducing several double plays, a direct result of Velasquez's Spring focus on incorporating more 2-seamers into his repertoire. This is a welcomed sign for prospective fantasy owners, as VV posted a 31% GB rate last season. He demonstrated he has the goods to succeed in 2015, posting a 27% hard hit rate, 25% K-rate, a 10.5% swinging-strike rate, and a nasty fastball-curve combo. There is risk here, but provided you already laid a foundation for your rotation, there aren't many better late-round fliers that could pay huge dividends than VV.

Does Aaron Altherr Hold The Key To The Fantasy Fates of Deep Leaguers?

Oddly enough, the progression of Altherr's left wrist, which he injured diving on a play in Friday's game against the Braves, may have huge fantasy implications for 2016. Altherr has displayed a solid speed/power combo in the upper minors, and demonstrated improvement in his plate coverage in the Bigs last season. With Peter Bourjos and Odubel Herrera likely locks to start in the OF to begin 2016, should Altherr miss extended time, we could see Darnell Sweeney or Tyler Goeddel see some looks. More importantly, this could expedite the clocks of Nick Williams, the prized piece in the Cole Hamels deal, and Roman Quinn, a potential fantasy goldmine for steals. Deep leaguers with bench room are advised to lock Williams' way, as the slugger posted an .845 OPS in 119 AA games in 2015 with 17 homers and 13 steals. He should see the call in late-May/early-June, but that could change depending on Altherr's health and Bourjos' production.

A Real Relief Prospect?

Yes, I think that Jimmy Cordero is one of those rare young relievers who are worthy of our attention. After tossing a successful bullpen session on Friday, Cordero appears to be moving forward from a biceps issued and is set to appear in games within the next week. And while one of the veterans--Frieri, Hernandez, Bailey, or Mujica--is likely to open the season as the closer, don't sleep on Jimmy Cordero in deeper leagues (and especially keeper leagues). He struck out 64 in 67 innings last year and showed progress in the control department. His fastball, which reportedly has touched 104 on the gun, includes downward movement, which explains his 1.76 GB/FB ratio in his MiLB career. We should see him in the second half, and if the Phillies rebuild is progressing as quickly as I suspect, they'll want to give him a serious look to see what they have for 2017.

Pittsburgh Pirates

A Shot of Jameson (Taillon)!

Jameson Taillon has endured his share of setbacks, sitting out most of the 2014 and 2015 seasons due to Tommy John and hernia surgeries. But, he showed flashes over the weekend that reminded the world why the Pirates took him with their first overall pick way back in 2010. Taillon has a plus fastball and curve, while the changeup is still developing. Of course, what sets him apart is his control (356:112 K:BB ratio in 382 MiLB innings), which should empower him to transition seamlessly to the big league rotation. With his NFBC ADP at 508, he makes for a sneaky pick for those not wanting to spend on the younger arms going 10-15 rounds earlier.

Tyler Glasnow or Later?

One of the arms that fantasy owners are drafting rather early this season--in addition to Blake Snell, Jose Berrios, and Lucas Giolito--is Tyler Glasnow, who is going off the board at 283 in NFBC drafts. But is now the time to invest in Glasnow? I see too much risk in TG, and even though his ceiling is higher than anyone not named Giolito, he presents a higher risk with his control issues. These were on full display on Saturday, as Glasnow allowed 3 walks and threw a wild pitch in 1 and 2/3 innings. He alluded to thinking too much about mechanics, which, with that 6'8" frame, will present him with challenges as he develops at the MLB level. He has the goods to be a fantasy ace someday, but be careful about lumping him in with the others mentioned above, who are more advanced with mechanics and control.

Parsing Out The Aces

Gerrit Cole (right rib inflammation) threw two innings in the pen/simulated environment on Monday and is slated to throw a bullpen on Wednesday. While we are fans of Cole's at Fantistics, we see him more as a top-15 option rather than a top-9, which is where he is going off the board in NFBC drafts. His 6.5% HR/FB rate and his 75% strand rate suggest some regression is in order, so banking on another 2.60 ERA is risky. He increased his slider usage considerably last season, and is still feeling his way around his secondary offerings and pitch sequencing, so there is hope that development could mitigate the pending statistical regression. However, while the rib injury doesn't seem serious, these have a tendency to linger, and I advise pushing Cole behind Price, DeGrom, and Kluber, pitchers going after him in NFBC drafts.

Miami Marlins

Barraclough to the Rescue?

Carter Capps met with Dr. James Andrews on Monday to seek a second opinion on his elbow after results of an MRI appears to show damage. While the Marlins have yet to release official word about Dr. Andrew's diagnosis, there is a high probably that he'll at least miss significant time; and that gives A.J. Ramos a firmer grip on the closer's job. However, the Marlins are already raving about in-house option Kyle Barraclough as a potential late-inning option. Barraclough has already has the stuff and he showed glimpses during his call-up in 2015, striking out 30 in 24 innings with a 96 MPH fastball that made hitters rack up a 15% swinging-strike rate. The issue has always been the control, as he also walked 18! News should arrive soon about the fate of Carter Capps, but in the meantime, savvy Ramos owners will want to handcuff with Barraclough.

Is J.T. for Real?

J.T. Realmuto posted a fine rookie season in 2015, hitting 10 homers, stealing 8 bases, and posting an 86% contact rate in 126 games. With above average hard-hit and groundball rates to go along with his above average speed, his .285 BABIP stands out as an outlier. We have him pegged for a .270+ average, and if you add in the potential for double digit homers and steals out of the catcher position, Realmuto makes for a high-upside play as your #1 catcher. Just be careful to expect more than a dozen homers, as his batted ball data shows a below average speed off bat and homer run distance numbers.

The #6 Starting Pitcher Off the Board in Re-Draft Leagues?

Jose Fernandez tossed 2-strong shutout innings on Monday, striking out 1 and walking 1 while working on his fastball command. According to MLB.com, his fastball ranged from 94-99 MPH, a welcomed sign from owners drafting Fernandez as their #1 SP. JF, fresh off dominating in his return for 65 innings, is going 6th off the board among starting pitchers. He showed that his stuff is in tact, posting a 13% swinging-strike rate and a 30% K-rate to go with a 5% BB-rate. The only question surrounding him heading into 2016 is the innings, with whispers of an innings limit and desires to manage him throughout the season. We have him pegged at 190 innings, which in my eyes, makes him a risky play as your #1 SP given the number of 200+ inning options with similar skill sets still on the board.

Around the League

Sean Manaea (SP-OAK): Manaea dominated in his Spring debut on Saturday, striking out 4 in 2 innings and showing a blazing fastball that left his manager and teammates in awe. Manaea is going 557th off the board in the NFBC (behind Cliff Lee!) and I'm not exactly sure why. The lefty struck out 90 in 74 and 1/3 last season, mostly in AA and walked 26. He battled injuries after the Royals took him in the 1st Supplemental Round in 2013 before putting things together last season. The A's could easily surprise, and if they jump off to a solid start, look for them to summon Manaea in the 1st half.

Jesse Winker (OF-CIN): The Reds, much like the Phillies, are rebuilding and look to open camp with veterans in the OF despite having a ton of talent waiting in the minor leagues. While Scott Schebler may keep the seat warm, if Jesse Winker continues to do what he has been doing to baseballs, the Reds will have no choice but to call him up by mid-season. Winker posted a .823 OPS with 13 homers, 8 steals, and a 74:83 BB:K ratio in 123 AA games. The Reds may not have a neuroscouting program, but if they did, I bet Winker would test in an area close to Mookie Betts. The man knows how to recognize pitches and he knows how to pick his spots. While news of Billy Hamilton's lingering shoulder injury has sent Jose Peraza's value soaring, don't forget about Winker at the back end of drafts.

Ryan Zimmerman (1B-WAS): Ryan Zimmerman is battling plantar fasciitis, a dreaded nuisance in the feet that has plagued many sluggers for entire seasons. Ugh. Zimmerman showed elite speed off bat numbers last season (105 MPH/411 FT), and was quite unfortunate with his BABIP (.268). He's played 156 games total the past two seasons, and given what we know about how this tends to linger, I advise restrain when drafting Zimm to fill out your CI. Clint Robinson, who put together a solid season in limited action in 2015, should see a bump in deeper leagues and NL-only formats.

Alan Hanson (2B-PIT): Hanson collected 2 more hits on Monday to up his Spring average to .545 as he continues to solidify his hold on the 2B position for April until Kang returns. Don't sleep on Hanson, who is going 548th overall in drafts. He has 20/20 potential and could easily force a tough decision on Jordy Mercer should he tear it up in April. Even if he is sent back down, a month with a handful of steals and homers is valuable in deeper leagues. Don't let his MiLB numbers deceive: he can hit.

Evan Gattis (DH-HOU): Gattis' recovery from sports hernia surgery is reportedly progressing ahead of schedule and he now aims to return in mid-April. He is currently going 230th off the board in the NFBC, and given the dearth of power remaining at that point in most drafts, he could be a sneaky add as a utility option. He's an extreme pull hitter (40%+) who hits the ball hard (31%+) and takes advantage of his home park. The Astros may give him a few games at catcher, which, depending on league rules, could really boost his value.

Jedd Gyorko (Everywhere-STL): With news of Jhonny Peralta's thumb injury still reverberating across the fantasy landscape, Jedd Gyorko's value continues to rise. Contact issues aside, Gyorko has proven he can hit the ball hard, posting a 35% hard hit rate in 2015 with a 401 average distance mark on his 16 homers. With 2B and SS eligibility and the prospect of 350-400 Abs, look for Gyorko at the MI position in deeper leagues.

Pedro Alvarez (1B/DH-BAL): The Orioles reportedly have agreed to a deal with Alvarez, which should be made official today provided he passes the dreaded Baltimore physical. He'll slot into the primary DH role and should see the bulk of the AB's against RHP, and given where he going in drafts--317th overall in NFBC--he makes for a solid CI play. Pedro averaged 416.5 feet on his 27 homers with an average speed off bat of 106.5, absolutely elite numbers, which, when coupled with his 37% hard-hit rate, suggests that he could maintain an elite HR/FB ratio moving into Camden Yards. The contact issues and struggles against lefties limit his value to deeper ROTO leagues, but if you need HR, vote for Pedro!

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