Giants rotation
We've already seen Matt Cain miss time with a cyst on his pitching arm, and now Johnny Cueto is having his Saturday start pushed back for unspecified reasons. In all likelihood, Cueto will be fine for Opening Day, but in reflecting on his second half struggles (4.76 ERA) last year and his elbow issues, I'd probably drop Cueto a couple notches on my draft board. Clubs typically exercise a great deal of caution this early in camp, but keep an eye on Cueto's progress next week. As of now, impressive 2015 rookie Chris Heston doesn't have a spot in the rotation, but it would be far from a surprise to see him make 25 starts for the Giants this year given we haven't even yet had a Jake Peavy injury report.
Rockies Closer Situation
The Rockies have a pair of former closers in Jason Motte and Chad Qualls as insurance, but this job is all Jacob McGee's once the season starts. McGee is a southpaw, but he's actually fared slightly better versus RH hitters in the last few years, so no worries were about some sort of jobshare scenario. McGee has posted at least a 10.8 K/9 in each of his last four years and his 1.9 BB/9 last season is just as elite. McGee has the ability to rack up 40 saves and 90 strikeouts if he can stay healthy and consistent, so he may be one of the better value plays once guys like Kimbrel and Jansen are off the board. Motte and Qualls are both worth speculative NL-only pickups as well.
Rockies first base scenarios
As of today, Ben Paulson tops the first base depth chart, with guys like Mark Reynolds and David Descalso right behind. The most likely scenario would be a Paulson/Reynolds platoon, with Paulson getting the lion's share of the at-bats and Reynolds facing southpaws. Not exactly a Todd Helton situation. The organization's top two prospects are both listed primarily at other positions - Ryan McMahon (3B) and David Dahl (OF), but with the Rockies having a pretty good 3B already, McMahon is seeing time at 1B this spring. That said, he's yet to even reach Double-A, so neither appears to be an option at any point this year. Paulson batted .282/.330/.485 versus RHP last year, so he's certainly worth owning in deeper leagues and in DFS leagues when facing mediocre RHP.
Dodgers rotation
Brett Anderson will miss 3-to-5 months with a back injury, and with Hyun-Jim Ryu (shoulder) sporting a mid-May ETA, that's two spots up for grabs this spring. Barring a March collapse, Alex Wood should get one of those slots, with Mike Bolsinger and Brandon Beachy competing for the other. Bolsinger's two scoreless innings Thursday against the Rangers gives him the early leg up, but after a hot start last year (3.08 ERA in the first half with a 69:25 K:BBG in 73 IP), Bolsinger faded down the stretch with a 4.71 ER in his final eight starts. Either way, Beachy first needs to prove he can stay healthy before he's an option. Julio Urias, arguably the #1 pitching prospect in the game, has never pitched more than 87 innings in a season, so he's probably not in the mix. I did see Urias throw a bullpen session under the watchful eye of manager Dave Roberts Thursday, and Roberts didn't seem to care to watch Beachy or anyone else that was pitching at the same time a Urias. Take that with a grain of salt, but ALL eyes are on Urias.
Dodgers infield
When everyone is healthy, the regulars here should be Adrian Gonzalez, Howie Kendrick, Corey Seager, and Justin Turner. Again, barring injury, I'd say each tallies the following number of starts: Gonzalez: 145, Kendrick: 130, Seager, 147, and Turner 125. That leaves Chase Utley looking at 250 PA's with Kike Hernandez, Scott Van Slyke, and Alex Guerrero having very little value unless someone gets hurt. Van Slyke hit a long home run Thursday as the first baseman and he's a solid DFS play against lefties, but there is a clear starting four here. Kendrick notably led off on Wednesday, but it's not yet clear who Dave Roberts will slot atop the lineup come Opening Day, as there is no Dave Roberts type on this team.
Giants - Jarrett Parker looking for at-bats
The Giants have a clear top three in their outfield in Angel Pagan, Denard Span, and Hunter Pence with Gregor Blanco as the #4 OF. After batting a healthy .347/.407/.755 with six home runs in 49 at-bats last year, that leaves Jarrett Parker looking at a Triple-A assignment, a spot at the end of the big league bench, or on the floor praying for a trade. All told between that stint and Triple-A last year, Parker hit 29 homers and stole 21 bases, but he's also already 27 and is apparently viewed as a bench bat type of guy. Striking out in 32.5% of his Triple-A PA's and 38.9% in the big leagues doesn't help his case, but perhaps a trade or injury will open up a chance. He's a worthy stash in deeper leagues.
Tyler Skaggs (SP-LAA) - The pitching-starved Angels are likely counting on Skaggs for 25+ starts this year coming off Tommy John surgery. Thursday however, Skaggs finally threw in the bullpen and is a bit behind schedule after feeling what was hopefully normal soreness in the elbow. Remember, Skaggs once posted a 2.84 ERA in 69.2 Double-A innings at the tender age of 20, so he was certainly a top prospect at his peak. That was back in 2012 however, but again, Skaggs is still just 24, so if he can come through the injury okay, he could be a nice steal late in fantasy drafts. Either way, even if Skaggs is 100%, he will likely be on an innings restriction, making him a dubious play in 12-team mixed redraft leagues.
Bryce Harper (OF-WAS) - There isn't much to say or analyze here, as there may be nobody on the planet better between the lines than this guy. Harper though is missing one thing from his game that doesn't make him a lock-solid #1 overall pick - stolen bases. That is why it was notable to see him swipe a bag Thursday and see that the team overall stole five bases. Could that mean with ex-Dodgers Dusty Baker and Davey Lopes in the fold that the Nats may be more aggressive on the basepaths? Could be. Even thinking Harper could swipe 15 (he has 37 in four years) would easily vault him to #1 status in fantasy.
Jean Segura (INF-ARI) - Segura is still learning second base, but if he can show he can handle the position, he should play just about every day according to manager Chip Hale. Segura is competing for time with Nick Ahmed and Chris Owings, and after posting back-to-back subpar seasons (.615 OPS and .617 OPS), Segura is still viewed as having upside with the bat given his solid 2013 rookie season - .294/.329/.423 with 12 HR and 44 SB. Even if that ends up being his best season, Segura should still he good for 20-25 steals despite a walk rate that cratered to 2.2% last year. Perhaps the change of scenery to a hitter's park will help. If he also somehow ends up hitting between A.J. Pollock and Paul Goldschmidt, that would be a godsend, but that seems unlikely barring a huge spring. Segura had two hits Friday, including a home run, so he's off to a nice start.
Maikel Franco (3B-PHI) - Franco hit his second homer of the spring Friday and also added an RBI single against the Braves. Franco hit an impressive .280/343/.497 in 80 games last year, including 14 home runs. Double that to 160 games and add a little assuming he'll develop, and Franco should make a run at 30 home runs. He did hit just .232 versus LHP last year in 69 at-bats, but he also slugged five home runs, leaving it unlikely he'll find himself in a platoon situation, at least initially. He struck out in a very solid 15.5% of his PA's last year, which is even more impressive considering his age and power potential. He's an easy top-10 fantasy third baseman.
Ryan Raburn (OF-COL) - This isn't exactly a signing that makes a dent in the NL West picture, but DFS players take note. Raburn signed a minor league deal with the Rockies on Friday coming off a year in which he batted a strong .301/.393/.543 in 82 games with the Indians. Most of that damage came against LHP, as Raburn took southpaws to the woodshed to the tune of .325/.415/.589 in 151 at-bats. It appears to be a perfect match, as all three of the Rockies' starting outfielders are left-handed hitters and Raburn's main competition appears to be Brandon Barnes who batted all of .224/.306/.239 versus LHP despite Barnes being a RH hitter. Raburn probably doesn't make sense out of DFS or SIM formats at this point however.
Marcell Ozuna (OF-MIA) - People keep asking me for sleepers, and inevitably, Ozuna's name is one I keep throwing out. Ozuna went 3-for-3 Friday and is now a decent 5-for-5 with a pair of doubles and a home run this spring. Time to give Barry Bonds the hitting coach of the year award? Time will tell, but Ozuna looks to be a guy I'll own all over the place this year. He's tentatively slated to hit second between Dee Gordon and Christian Yelich, and despite the down year in 2015, Ozuna had a solid finish, batting .296/.355/.459 in hi final 98 at-bats. A breakout is very possible.
Addison Russell (SS-CHC) - Some guys take longer to develop than others, and while that may be the case with Russell, 2016 could also be a breakout campaign for the 22 year-old shortstop. Russell batted just .242/.307/.389 in 523 PA's last year, but showed good power with 37% of his hits going for extra bases, including 13 HR. We expect some improvement in his 28.5% K%, as Russell's history suggests he'll be more in the 17-20% range as he peaks. Look for some improvement this year, perhaps into the .260-18-70 range, though the RBI's could be limited by his hitting near the bottom of the order. Incidentally, Russell hit a home run on Friday.
Anthony Gose (OF-DET) - If you wind up hurting for steals later in your draft, Gose isn't a bad guy to take a flier on. He's competing with Cameron Maybin for the CF job this spring, and with the news this week that Maybin will miss 4-to-6 weeks with a wrist injury, Gose sees a slight bump in value. This could ultimately end up a platoon situation favoring Gose, but either way, Gose's floor appears to be 20 steals with an upside of 30 or more. He was caught in nearly a third of his 34 attempts last year, and guys with his speed should not be striking out 27% of the time. Some improvement in those numbers, and the 25 year-old could take a nice step forward in 2016
Carlos Gonzalez (OF-COL) - With the amount of trade interest Gonzalez is receiving this spring, I can't recommend drafting him in NL-only leagues unless your league rules allow you to keep his stats if he's traded to the AL. In addition, the Rockies are increasing the height of the fences in LF and RF, so it's probably save to say that another 40 homers this year isn't happening. It was good to see the power return, but if he ever again hits close to 2013's .302/.367/.591 while playing in 150+ games, I think we'd all be shocked.
Daniel Hudson (RP-ARI) - Hudson has Brad Ziegler and probably Tyler Clippard ahead of him on the closer depth chart, but if you're looking for a deep sleeper for saves, I like Hudson. In 67.2 innings last year, Hudson's ERA was just 3.86, but he averaged 96.1 mph with his fastball en route to a 9.4 K/9. The 3.3 BB/9 was a little high, but in his last 8.1 innings of 2015, Hudson's K:BB was 11.1 and he allowed just one run in that time. Hudson has undergone two Tommy John surgeries in his career, but it's looking like he's carving out a nice second career as a late-inning reliever. I would expect him to push for closer duties sometime in 2016.
