Preseason Prep - March 24, 2016

Pittsburgh Pirates

What a Juan-derful Spring for Nicasio

Juan Nicasio is competing for one of the final two rotation spots with Jeff Locke and Ryan Vogelsong and is making the decision for the Pirates brass quite difficult. After dominating the Twins earlier in the week, Nicasio has struck out 18 in his last 9 innings while allowing 2 free passes. Could the Ray Searage Effect, well, be in effect?
He is throwing quality 94+ MPH fastballs and biting sliders, but he doesn't throw a changeup on a regular basis or with confidence, and this could relegate him to a middle relief role with lefties continuing to give him fits. Searage does seem to be improving his control (he posted a 12% BB-rate in 2015), and he has the swing-and-miss stuff to intrigue (11% swinging-strike rate). As a flier in the last round in a draft go for Nicasio, but anything more seems too pricey too offset the extreme risk.

Could Cutch Be A 1st Round Catch?

Andrew McCutchen hit his 5th homer of the Spring to continue a scorching week as he looks locked in and ready to deliver. The fantasy universe has slotted Cutch to the back of the 1st round and we see him more as a mid-1st round pick that could deliver top-5 value in 2016. How soon we forget that Cutch battled core injuries for the first half of the season. And through it all, he nearly maintained his batted ball speed and distance from past season, as well as his hard hit rate. Now healthy, I envision him delivering 15-20 stolen bases as well. No age decline to see here just yet.

Can David Freese His Decline?

After the Pirates demoted Alan Hanson, David Freese looks to have emerged as the frontrunner to fill in at third until Jung-ho Kang returns in late-April/early-May. Freese did post a 33% hard-hit rate in 2015 while maintaining solid batted ball speed and distance marks. While health has always been a concern, the veteran makes for a great play late in NL-only drafts and even in deeper mixed leagues as a utility man on rosters with early injury concerns (e.g., Kang).

Philadelphia Phillies

Should You Go To Jerad Eickhoff?

Healed from a fractured right thumb, Eickhoff made a triumphant return to the mound on Tuesday, striking out 7 and allowing 3 earned runs in 4 innings. His upside is unquestioned after he posted a solid 24% K-rate and 10% swinging-strike rate via a quality 4-pitch arsenal in 2015. He also displayed impressive control by walking only 6% of the batters he faced while posting an incredible 65% first-pitch strike rate. However, his .95 GB/FB rate coupled with his well-above average 34% hard-hit rate could spell trouble in Philadelphia. Add him late, but as a #6 SP with upside.

Maikel Wish for Franco

Maikel Franco sits atop our Fantistics wishlist with names such as Bryant, Marte, Hosmer, and Bogaerts, and the fantasy universe is catching on thanks to his monster spring. He posted a respectable 8% BB-rate and surprisingly low 15.5% K-rate in his rookie season, although he maintained an average hard-hit rate. We like him for 25+ homers and a respectable .270 average, but advise patience throughout the season as he may endure growing pains and adjustment periods. In the end, however, the numbers should be there to justify his current ADP of 94, and he'll slip into the top 80 should the Phillies begin their youth movement in the second half, which should boost his counting stats.

Maybe a Shot of Bailey?

With David Hernandez battling a triceps injury for most of the Spring, Andrew Bailey has seized the opportunity to throw his name in the closer hat and has pitched quite well, allowing 1 hit and 0 earned runs in 4 outings. After battling through TJ, shoulder, and thumb surgeries, Bailey is attempting to resurrect a once promising career as a closer. His ADP, which once sat over 500, is rising, and while the temptation to draft him follows, be careful about counting on him as a source for saves. I recommend drafting as a low-end number 3 closer as "bonus saves" and handcuffing with Hernandez, as Bailey's velocity has me concerned that this great story may not thrive deep into the season.

Miami Marlins

Oh No, Ozuna!

The Marlins scratched Marcell Ozuna from Wednesday's tilt due to a sore right ankle, and while he appears day-to-day, monitor this closely. Ozuna is also on our wishlist at Fantistics, as we have him ranked 4-5 rounds higher than his current ADP of 220. His bat speed is elite as evidence by his batted ball speed data and hart hit rates, and he has done nothing to quell our excitement with his torrid start to the Spring (1.130 OPS). Draft him as your #4/5 OF and watch him produce like a #2/3.

Adam on the Eve of an Important Start

Adam Conley struck out the first 6 batters against the Tigers on Saturday before the rains came to wash the game out. While a solid showing on Thursday could solidify his hold on one of the final two rotation spots that are up for grabs, Conley has already seemed to impress Don Mattingly, who told MLB.com that he likes the kid's demeanor and confidence. Many may point to Conley's mediocre AAA numbers, especially in the K-rate department, but his stuff and his pitchability have improved since then. He limited hitters to a 21% hard-hit rate in 2015 while maintaining a 21% K-rate. If he can gain more than a delta of 8 MPH with his change, then we could see a significant breakout in 2016. With an ADP of 401, he makes for a great late-round pick, one worth reaching for in the reserve rounds of standard mixed leagues.

Is Jarred Cosart a Worthy Starter?

After back-to-back scoreless outings, Jarred Cosart looks poised to break camp with a spot in the Marlins rotation secured. While many of the surface stats looks ugly, Cossart has posted a career 54% GB rate with a 4.32 xFIP. The major issue is the K-rate, as it hovers at 15%, while the BB-rate isn't too far behind at 11%. He looks healthy after battling a bout of vertigo late last season, and had prospect pedigree in a different life, so there could be something here. But outside of NL-only, I'd rather put him on a watch list than invest a pick.

Around the League

Drew Pomeranz (SP-SD): With Brandon Maurer set to move back to the bullpen, the stage has been set for Drew Pomeranz to seize a rotation spot. His performance on Wednesday only furthered the lefty's cause, as he allowed 1 earned run on 1 hit and 1 walk in 4 solid innings, striking out 4 White Sox. He makes for a great late-round flier as a #6 starter with upside and can now be drafted with confidence ahead of his 410 average NFBC ADP. The issue has always been the lack of a third pitch, as 90% of his deployed pitches were fastballs or curvballs last year, so keep an eye on this in the early going to see if he can maintain his spot.

Derek Holland (SP-TEX): Derek Holland tossed 5 scoreless and struck out 7 against the Cubs. The lefty is coming off the board at #329 overall in drafts after the likes of Daniel Norris, Trevor Bauer, and Rick Porcello, making him a potential late round steal. Holland posted a bloated 17% HR/FB rate upon his return, but he didn't miss enough bats (7% swinging strike rate) to warrant much optimism heading into Spring. He has only pitched 95 innings combined the past two seasons after posting 213 in 2013, so he's going to have to show owners before they can trust him. The price is right.

Michael Conforto (OF-NYM): Conforto left Wednesday's game due to back tightness he experienced after a swing, although reports suggest he's day-to-day and should be back into games by the end of the week. A .40 EYE, a 44% hard-hit rate, and a 79% contact rate in your first taste of the Majors? Sign us up, as we have him 3-4 rounds ahead of his current ADP. He could be this year's breakout OF if he can hold his own against lefties.

Tyler Naquin (OF-CLE): Speaking of breakout OF--although of the deep sleeper variety--Tyler Naquin looks poised to break camp with the Indians after belting 2 more homers on Wednesday. Naquin, a 1st Round Pick of the Tribe in 2012, has endured an uneven development path. He seemed to put things together in 2015, when across 2 levels he posted an .828 OPS with 7 homers, 13 steals, and a 40:73 BB:K ratio in 84 games. Instead of reaching for vanilla with your #5 OF in standard leagues where replacement level guys should remain on the wire, give Naquin a look and go for the glory.

Troy Tulowitzki (SS-TOR): This may come as a shock, but Troy Tulowitzki exited a game with an injury, this time to his right hand, suffered at the hands of a Bartolo Colon pitch. X-rays came back negative and Tulo and his fantasy owners appear to have averted major disaster, but the situation is worth monitoring. Before the injury we at Fantistics were quite bearish on him compared to the rest of the industry, ranking him 90th overall compared to an overall ADP of 51. His EYE dropped last year from .88 to .33 and his swinging strike rate rose to 9.4, a mark he hadn't posted since his rookie year in 2006. Combine the uneven performance with the fact that he hasn't played more than 128 games since 2011, and there is reason to stay away unless he falls past the first 6 rounds in standard leagues.

Avisail Garcia (OF-CHW): Garcia went 2 for 3, hitting his 3rd homer of what has been a resurgent Spring for the forgotten slugger. With Adam LaRoche's departure, Garcia has a window into earning significant AB's. The power is real as evidenced by his solid speed of bat / average homer distance numbers. His .26 EYE, 71% contact rate, and 47% chase rate should temper expectations, and while he should improve upon them with regular AB's in his age-24 season, be careful not to pay for more than 16-18 homers. His average NFBC ADP of 290 looks fair.

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