Dodgers - Starting Rotation in Flux
As usual, injuries have struck the Dodgers' rotation. Brett Anderson is out until at least July after undergoing back surgery. Hyun-Jin Ryu is targeting mid-May for his return from labrum surgery, but a torn labrum can often be a death sentence for pitchers, so no one really knows how he'll look once he's ready to step into the rotation. Clayton Kershaw and Kenta Maeda have looked impressive this spring while presumed #3 Scott Kazmir has a 17.18 ERA through two starts. Alex Wood should nail down the #4 slot, but he'll have to fare better than his first outing (2 IP, 2 HR). The fifth spot is up for grabs between guys like Mike Bolsinger, Zach Lee, and Brandon Beachy. The organization appears intent to have top prospects Julio Urias and Jose De Leon open in Triple-A, but they could be options later in the season. Bolsinger seems the most likely to win the job given his success last year.
Dodgers - Andre Ethier Named the Starting Left Fielder
It's not a surprise to see Ethier get the nod over Crawford after Ethier hit .294/.366/.486 last year (.306/.383/.517 versus RHP). Manager Dave Roberts has yet to state that Ethier will be in a strict platoon situation, but expect to see Scott Van Slyke and Kike Hernandez in there against southpaws. Roberts has already stated that his lineups will be "fluid", but expect Yasiel Puig to play just about every day, Joc Pederson to be in there most days barring an awful March, and then Ethier in the lineup versus RHP. Trayce Thompson has impressed this spring, but he'll likely open in Triple-A barring a trade or perhaps a release of Carl Crawford.
Giants - Concern regarding Johnny Cueto?
Cueto's first spring start was pretty brutal Wednesday, as the team's $130 million investment allowed five runs on four hits over 1.1 innings against the Rockies. Cueto had been projected to start four days earlier on Saturday, but even with the extra rest, things fell apart. There has been no report of an injury, but Cueto has struggled with a sore elbow in recent seasons, and including the playoffs, he's tallied a whopping 480.2 innings combined the past two seasons. Worth noting is that Cueto had a 6.11 ERA in six September starts last year before putting up mixed results in the playoffs, including one eight-run outing against the Blue Jays and then a two-hitter in the World Series. Look for the Giants to watch his workload this year, perhaps limiting his innings to something in the 200 range, though that's pure speculation. It's interesting to note that prior to 2015, Cueto had significantly outperformed his FIP in each of the previous four seasons (2.25 ERA and 3.37 FIP in 2014 for example), but he came back to Earth a bit in 2015.
Giants - Hunter Strickland, Future Closer?
Santiago Casilla will open the season in the closer role on the heels of last year's 38 saves, but Casilla is also 35 and has never "done it" in back-to-back seasons. He also saw his BB/9 regress from 2.3 to 3.6 last year and his HR rate doubled. Should Casilla ultimately need to be replaced, Sergio Romo would seemingly be next in line, but the 27 year-old Strickland looks to be the future. His fastball averages a blistering 96.9 mph and he also controls it well, posting a BB/9 of just 1.8 last year. Given the fastball, Strickland's 8.8 K/9 is relatively modest, but continued mixing in of his secondary stuff should get that well over 9.0 this year. Generally, 40-50% of Opening Day closers lose their jobs at some point during the year, and it would be little surprise were that to happen here.
Rockies - Who Benefits When/If Carlos Gonzalez is traded?
There really seems to be no point in holding onto a highly-paid and productive outfielder making $37 million over the next two seasons before hitting free agency. Given that Gonzalez hit 40 home runs and was healthy enough to play in a career-high 153 games last year, the time is seemingly right for a deal. Maybe it happens in July, maybe next week, but the Rockies have no pitching at any level, and dealing a guy like CarGo could bring a solid return. I'd be hesitant to draft CarGo in most any format, but particularly in NL-only formats. Brandon Barnes and perhaps Rafael Ynoa would benefit from a CarGo trade, but neither has much fantasy appear. Ynoa can run a bit, but he also had a .277 OBP in 131 PA's for the Rockies last year. Can't steal first base.
Rockies - Could Mark Reynolds be more than a platoon first baseman?
Reynolds looks to be on the wrong side of a first-base platoon with Ben Paulson, but Paulson isn't exactly Todd Helton after hitting .277/.326/.462 in 116 games last year. He's 28 to Reynolds' 32, and neither guy is going to be starting in the coming years once (if?) the Rockies become competitive again. Ryan McMahon is likely the team's first baseman of the future beginning sometime in 2017. Reynolds if off to a nice start this spring (6-for-14, 3 XBH, HR), and while returning to his salad days of 44 HR in 2009, giving him 500 at-bats while playing half his games in Coors Field could yield close to 30 perhaps. The Rockies could also choose to deal Carlos Gonzalez, put Paulson in left field, and give Reynolds the first base job before trading him in July. Either way, Reynolds could be a decent waiver-wire grab in deep leagues at some point this year.
Jonathan Papelbon (RP-WAS) - Papelbon was taken to the woodshed Friday, allowing four runs (three earned) on two hits and three walks while retiring just two hitters against the Mets. The outing takes Papelbon's ERA to a gaudy 16.20. His status as the team's closer is still not an issue of course, likely even if he finishes March with a similarly-ugly ERA. That said, if there turns out to be an injury at some point, we have to consider who's up next. It's not Drew Storen (now in Toronto), but probably either Shawn Kelley or, if he doesn't make the rotation, Tanner Roark. Kelley shined in San Diego last year, posting a 2.45 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in 53 games, numbers supported by excellent ratios - 11.1 K/9, 2.6 BB/9. Papelbon though has done it for so many years and he had a 2.13 ERA last year, so for now, no real worries.
Byung-Ho Park (1B-MIN) - Park homered for the third time in four games Friday, so after fanning in his first three spring at-bats, he's obviously getting more comfortable. Park is a tough guy to project, as though we know he's not going to hit 53 home runs as he did in the Korean League last year, he's also not going to hit .343. Park also struck out in 26% of his at-bats, a number that in theory could approach 30% as he faces better pitching. He does draw a fair share of walks, and perhaps 25 HR is an attainable goal, so we may be looking at something along the lines of .240/.330/.450. Not terrible numbers, but it probably also places him barely among the league's top 20 fantasy first basemen.
Robert Stephenson (SP-CIN) - Stephenson may very well be the team's Opening Day starter circa 2018, but he's probably not quite ready to open this season in the rotation. Friday, Stephenson allowed two runs in three innings against the Cubs, but he didn't walk a batter and he struck out three. Between Double-A and Triple-A last year, Stephenson posted a 3.83 ERA and 9.4 K/9 and while he's not in the upper echelon of pitching prospects, being a notch below the likes of Julio Urias and Lucas Giolito isn't a bad place to be. Stephenson just turned 23. He has some work to do on his control, as in his last three minor league stops comprised of 10 or more starts, Stephenson's BB/9 rates are 4.9, 5.0, and 4.4. You can see the progress in the 4.4 number from prior stops, but he'll still need to improve that part of his game significantly to reach his #2 starter ceiling.
Nick Ahmed (SS-ARI) - Ahmed launched his first spring homer Friday, lifting his spring slash line to a gaudy .444/.421/.944 in 18 at-bats. Five of his eight hits have gone for extra bases and he's struck out just twice while failing to walk yet. Ahmed of course isn't known for his bat, having hit just .226/.275/.359 with nine home runs and four steals in 459 PA's a year ago. Perhaps the power takes a small step forward to 10-12 home runs this year, but after swiping 40 bases four years ago in A-ball, it doesn't seem Ahmed is going to be a prolific base stealer. Of course it would help to get on base a bit more, but Ahmed isn't hitting at the top of the order anytime soon. The middle infield situation is a bit crowded in Arizona, but Ahmed's superior glove should get him 400+ at-bats, giving him at least some NL-only value.
Domingo Santana (OF-MIL) - I'm as big a Santana supporter as you'll see, and I expect he'll wind up on more than one of my fantasy teams this year. Santana went 3-for-3 with a homer Friday, giving him an 8-for-14 start to his spring. Santana struck out in more than a third of his 2015 MLB PA's so expecting a BA much higher than .260 this year could prove folly. Perhaps regular playing time gets him into the low .270s, but this is a guy with the ability to hit 25 home runs while stealing 15 bases. He walked a respectable 10.7% of the time last year, so maybe that goes up a bit and allows his slash to finish somewhere in the range of .270/.350/.470. If he were to outperform the guy he (and others) was traded for last year, Carlos Gomez, it wouldn't be a huge surprise to me.
Cesar Hernandez (2B-PHI) - Hernandez appears poised to open the season as the team's starting second baseman ahead of the likes of Andres Blanco and Darnell Sweeney. Hernandez was 3-for-4 Friday, including two runs, two RBI, and his third stolen base of the spring. It appears Peter Bourjos will leadoff with Hernandez hitting second, so there should be some opportunities for stolen bases, though RBI and runs will be tough to come by in a rebuilding lineup. Hernandez hit a decent .272/.339/.348 last years on, though hitting just one home run limited his fantasy appear. His 19 stolen bases were nice to see, but the 25 year-old seems unlikely to develop much power. He's much better (.314 last year) versus LHP, so unless he can improve his .254 BA versus RHP, Hernandez is likely looking at a future as a utility man. The Phillies will likely give him plenty at-bats, at least until they find a long-term option.
Jose Peraza (2B-CIN) - Batting second and playing shortstop, Peraza went 3-for-4 with a home run off John Lackey on Friday. The Reds are expected to use Brandon Phillips and Zack Cozart up the middle initially, but Peraza is considered a building block, so he should work his way into regular playing time eventually. Peraza is also considered an option in centerfield, where Billy Hamilton is dealing with a sore shoulder and expectations of a potential sub-.300 OBP. Peraza doesn't turn 22 until late-April, so given the guys ahead of him, it seems likely Peraza will open in Triple-A and stay there until an injury or trade opens up an opportunity. Peraza offers true 50 stolen base upside if he can find himself getting regular playing time.
Chad Bettis (SP-COL) - Not that I recommend drafting Colorado pitchers, but if you do need one, I'd take Bettis over any Colorado starter, including Jorge De La Rosa. Bettis tossed three perfect innings with three strikeouts Friday. In 20 starts covering 115 innings for the Rockies last year, Bettis posted a 4.23 ERA while averaging 92 mph with his fastball. His ratios were merely average (7.7 K/9, 3.3 BB/9). He did finish strong with a 1.50 ERA in his final four starts, and what helps him in Coors Field, Bettis averaged two ground balls per fly ball last year. Not surprisingly, Bettis was far better on the road (3.35 ERA) than at home (4.99 ERA), so using him as a streaming option on the road next year isn't a bad play.
Freddie Freeman (1B-ATL) - Freeman was forced to exit Friday's game with a sore wrist and hand. Normally that wouldn't be anything major, but Freeman dealt with soreness in the wrist towards the end of last year as well, so this could be a red flag worth monitoring. Freeman's power output was still solid last year, with his 23.1 AB/HR rate being the best mark of his career. Wrist injuries have been known to sap power, so watch this closely. Freeman is just entering his prime at age 26, and given 155 games, he could reach 30 home runs, even if his other counting stats are depressed by the poor lineup around him. Also worth watching is that he appeared to regress against lefties last year, batting just .219/.250/.316 with one home run in 114 at-bats against them. He's probably just outside my top-10 first basemen, but a step or two forward isn't out of the question as long as the wrist is okay.
Jered Weaver (SP-LAA) - Weaver's velocity has fallen off the table lately, as the trend in his average fastball velocity reads as follows since 2010: 89.9, 89.1, 87.8, 86.5, 86.3, 83.3. His ERA has taken a similar dive from 2011's 2.41, cratering last year to the 4.64 level to go with a 5.1 K/9 and his usual excellent control (1.8 BB/9). This spring, Weaver's "heater" has been getting up to the plate slower than a lot of other pitchers' changeups at closer to 80 mph. Not surprisingly, the Angels sent Weaver for an MRI Thursday which revealed tightening of the nerves in his neck. We should know more on the plan for Weaver soon, but for now, it would seem to put his Opening Day availability into question. As for his fantasy value, I was asked recently whether it was worth keeping Weaver for $3 in an AL-only league. My response: that's at least $2 too much.
