NAVA-MORE? - It's looking more and more like a Nava/Gentry platoon is what the Angels will roll into 2016 with in LF, and while Nava really struggled last season, there is a bit of cause for slight optimism. Nava has hit very well this spring, batting 462/588/769 in 39 ABs, and he's pretty much always hit RHP adequately until last season. Particularly in OBP-based formats, Nava should be expected to at least provide little downside, which does have its value. If this sounds like damning with faint praise, it is. Nava has little in the way of power or speed, and at age 33 one doesn't figure there to be much upside in either area. He can be safely left on the wire this spring despite the hot Cactus League performance.
ROTATIONAL DISASTER - The once-vaunted rotation is a minefield right now, as after Garrett Richards and Andrew Heaney you've got Hector Santiago with deteriorating peripherals (but a solid spring performance) and then a bunch of injuries and disappointments. Tyler Skaggs is the brightest spot in that bunch, as he is likely to return to the rotation in late April and has certainly shown promise during his oft-injured career. After that you've got the last vestiges of Jered Weaver's career and two right-handers that have been knocked around a ton this spring in Nick Tropeano and Matt Shoemaker. At least one of the last two will open the season in the rotation, but neither of them appears to be ready for prime-time this spring....certainly neither should open the year in a fantasy rotation. Tropeano is intriguing to me after posting some very solid K rates last season, but we've all seen the horror stories from changeup-first arms once they've gone around the league a few times, so enthusiasm should be tempered there. Shoemaker had a very rough 2015 after a promising debut in 2014, but he still offers very solid control to go along with a flyball-oriented approach that will have its share of ERA bumps. Finally, you've got CJ Wilson, whose timetable is TBD. I would guess he will come back to the rotation in May sometime, but the 35 year old has declining velocity and an increasing penchant to nibble...I think it's pretty clear that his best days are behind him. In short, Skaggs is a solid reserve option for early in the season and has the most promise of the guys outside the top 3, Shoemaker and Tropeano are both "wait and see" types, and the two veterans are best left on the scrap heap.
TEX MARKS THE SPOT - Health will obviously be the key for Teixeira, who turns 36 the second week of the season. Teixeira is mostly a one-trick pony at this point in his career, but he did have a nice resurgence last year, posting the best ISO (.293) of his career and his top hard contact rate since 2010 (35%). The park is lauded as a big part of that, but Tex did hit 17 of his 31 homers away from home last year, so it isn't just that. His avg HR distance was only 389 feet, however, so a bit of a decline should be expected, and there isn't a ton of margin for error here if you're looking at him as a standard-league CI. He's at the very fringe of that level right now, and there's more downside risk than upside unfortunately.
A STAR(LIN) IN THE MAKING - Castro is only the 17th 2B coming off the board this spring, and at age 26 with a perhaps-needed change of scenery, I believe that to be several spots too low. Castro hit 295/319/464 in the second half last season, and he's moving to a slightly more favorable park in Yankee Stadium this year. Also, not that I'm a big believer in spring stats, but Castro has been the Yanks' top hitter this spring, batting 378/385/622. I fully expect a big year out of Castro, and would expect him to outperform his ADP in a fairly sizable fashion....I would place him at least 4 spots higher in the 2B ranking, and I would make it even money that he cracks the top-10 at year's end.
SHORT AT SHORT - Espinosa will open the season as the starting SS in Washington, as Trea Turner was sent back to Syracuse for some more seasoning. The Nationals are voting for defense over offense primarily with this decision, although Espinosa does have some power and speed. With an avg HR distance of only 391 feet, I think it's unlikely that Espinosa could hit more than 15 homers or so despite playing every day, but 15/10 out of a guy that is 2B/SS eligible is reasonably solid. The problem is that it comes with a pretty significant AVG risk, as Espinosa is only a year removed from failing to reach .220 over 333 ABs, plus Turner is going to be lurking at AAA pretty much from minute one. Espinosa might be a late-game flyer in deeper leagues just on the off chance he can hit .250 to go along with the modest power and speed contributions, but the downside is significant enough that I'd likely look elsewhere.
MURPHY'S LUCK? - Masked by Murphy's disturbingly consistent statistical performance last year was a fairly substantial BABIP underperformance. Murphy was the hardest hitter to fan in baseball last year and managed a LD rate of above 21%, yet his BABIP of just .278 kept his AVG at .281, very similar to (even a bit lower than) his career norm. A similar performance this season in a better home park could easily push his average up near .300, and batting behind Bryce Harper won't hurt much either. I think there's a bit of upside potential to Murphy's 2016 based on his 2015 performance.
AROUND THE LEAGUE -
Brandon Belt, SF, 1B - Belt is currently the 17th 1B off the board on average, and with a lot of great sluggers in front of him on that list, it's admittedly hard to make the case to move him up a ton. I will say, however, that I expect Belt to have his best year ever in 2016. With a 29% LD rate, the average has some definite upside, and his hard contact rate of just under 40% was good for 9th in the league. His home park is really what's keeping the power down more than anything (well, that and the amount of balls he hits the other way in the air), as he hit 13 of his 18 homers on the road. I think 25 homers and a .290 AVG are very reasonable targets for Belt, and with an extra 10-15 games (hopefully) the counting stats should nudge their way over 80 as well. I think he is an excellent CI choice this spring in standard-sized leagues, and it wouldn't surprise me a bit to see him crack the top-12 1B by the end of the season.
Starling Marte, PIT, OF - I've seen some calls for power regression on Starling Marte, which would probably drop him out of the top-30 players production-wise, but I'm of the opposite opinion: I think he could hit 25. Marte was 17th among qualified players (top-85 or over 18 homers) in avg HR distance last season, averaging 407.7 feet per blast. He even exceeded that figure on 7 of his last 8 homers of the season, leading you to believe that there may very well be some more power in there if he follows the normal pattern of hitting more flyballs as he ages. Throw in the 23% LD rate which led to a BABIP that was under expectations, and you've got a player that I think could blossom into a late 1st-round type of a selection this year. It's tough to find 3rd-rounders that could jump into the top tier, and I think Marte looks like the most likely under the current 2016 ADP list.
Aaron Sanchez, TOR, SP - Sanchez is going to be opening the season in the Toronto rotation, and the big right-hander still oozes potential, as evidenced by the increased K rate in 20 innings this spring. Sanchez still has the three plus pitches, but the command has appeared much improved this spring, helping the K rate gravitate toward the area that the stuff leads to believe it should be. Combined with a monster GB rate, Sanchez has significant upside potential pitching in front of the high-octane Blue Jay offense. I think he's worth at least a reserve slot in all formats with SP3 upside to go along with reasonably significant downside risk.
Jeremy Jeffress, MIL, RP - Will Smith's freak LCL tear (he pulled off his show without untying it) Thursday appears to have opened the door for Jeremy Jeffress to be the full-time closer for Milwaukee to open the season. Jeffress has been very solid in set-up work the past season-plus for the Brewers, exhibiting improved control and excellent K numbers along with a GB rate approaching 60%. There's always some question about a player moving to the ninth inning, but Jeffress should have a skill set that will translate nicely to the closer's role, and I expect him to be firmly above the bottom tier of late-inning options when all is said and done this year.
Alex Colome, TB, RP - Colome appears to be the head of the committee that will replace Brad Boxberger while he is rehabbing until June-ish, but I can't say as I'm all that enthused about his prospects. The stuff is solid enough, but with a rather low GB rate and sketchy control, the flammability is significant. I would likely put this situation in the bottom-5 league-wide while looking for saves this spring.
Cory Spangenberg, SD, 2B - Spangenberg basically went straight from AA to the majors last year at age 24, and ended up posting a decent average and a handful of steals over 303 ABs. I think he's a bit overlooked this spring as the firmly entrenched starter at a fairly weak position. Sure, he isn't likely to hit even 10 homers, but he has good speed and makes solid contact....a .280 AVG and 15 steals are very real targets for him, making him a very solid end-game option in the middle infield in just about all formats. The 25% LD rate helps finish the look of a high floor, low ceiling player. Not the most exciting thing to be sure, but useful as a supporting cast member to the higher-upside players.
Jabari Blash, SD, OF - One name to keep in the very back of your mind this spring is Jabari Blash. He's a rule V pick for the Padres that is competing with the artist formerly known as BJ Upton for the LF job, and as we all know, BJ Upton hasn't hit since well before he went back to using Melvin. Blash has enormous power, hitting 32 homers in just 116 games last season between AA and AAA in the Mariners' organization, and he has enough speed to threaten double-digits in steals as well. The catch, of course, is the contact rate...Blash struck out at a nearly 30% clip in the minors last year, so I can only imagine what it would be at the big league level for a full year. Still, as a Rule V pick he has to stay on the roster, and it isn't like the Pads are really going anywhere just yet, so they may decide to see what they have here. Blash would likely be a cheap source of power in deeper leagues should he get the PT needed.
Maikel Franco, PHI, 3B/1B - We've talked at length this spring about how high we are on Franco, but I think it's important to put this in some context: there are two other pre-prime (Franco is 23) hitters that posted an ISO of over .200 with a K-rate under 16% last season: Anthony Rizzo and Manny Machado, and Rizzo is 26. Machado's ADP is 9, Rizzo's is 13, and Franco's is 92. Something to keep in mind.
Jordan Zimmermann, DET, SP - Zimmermann is definitely a guy for which I'd be letting someone else own the risk this season. He's declined a bit in GB rate, velocity, and swinging strike% over the past couple of years, and heading from the NL to the AL is never a picnic for any SP. He's still being valued as an SP3 this spring, and I think that (#31 SP) is probably 5-10 spots too high.
Erasmo Ramirez, TB, SP - Ramirez posted a swinging strike% last year of 11.3, better than arms such as King Felix, Dallas Keuchel, Jon Lester, and Collin McHugh. The K/9 remains in the 7 range, however, which may be to your advantage. Sure, the massive velocity is no longer there, as Ramirez now throws in the 90-92 range most of the time, but the 10% pop in GB rate last year combined with the potential illustrated by the swinging strike% makes me think that there might be another step forward for the 25 year old. He's a solid high-upside option for the back of your rotation this spring.
Havey, Matt, NYN, SP - Like everyone else, we are awaiting word on Matt Harvey's mystery health issue. Anytime there is a specialist involved it's cause for concern, baseball related or not. We're shaving 3 starts from Harvey in our player projections immediately, which will drop him out of the top 15, as we await the prognosis. UPDATE: Harvey told reporters on Tuesday morning, that the issue was blood clots in his bladder caused by an infection, which is apparently treatable with anti-biotics, and he's back on track to make his opening day debut. We're going to reverse our short term downgrade as all systems appear to be go for Mr. Harvey.
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