Preseason Prep - Mar 11, 2016

FORGET THE BIG THREE, HOW ABOUT THE BIG FOUR? - With the Big Three at the front of the rotation and Lucas Giolito waiting in the wings, Joe Ross has understandably flown under the radar a bit in Washington, but he has the potential to slot in right behind the top group. Ross is a fastball/slider pitcher much like his brother Tyson, albeit with a bit better control but a much lower GB rate. The development of a splitter this spring might help the latter issue, and for those wondering the K differential between the brothers, Joe's swinging strike% was fairly close to Tyson's even though the K/9 data was pretty disparate. I think there's some upside potential in K's for Joe Ross this year and the 2015 FIP ERA of 3.42 is a decent target for 2016....I would definitely value him as an SP5 at least heading into this season, if not an SP4. He looks like a very underrated arm to me.

REBOUND FOR RAMOS? - Wilson Ramos had a very disappointing season in 2015 due to contact issues on pitches outside the zone and a surprisingly poor performance against LHP, whom he usually performed very well against. There are a couple of factors that lead me to believe that a rebound is in store for 2016. The first is a BABIP that was 25 points under his career average. Even with a LD rate that was off a bit, he still should be expected to gain back around 10 points of AVG this year at least. Also, his avg HR distance and exit speed were pretty consistent from his breakout 2013 campaign. I still believe that he could produce 20 HRs this year, and with a bit of positive regression in AVG he should still prove to be a low-end C even in standard-sized leagues, and he should certainly be a worthwhile bargain in leagues that require 2 catchers.

JERED WEAVER, THE BELL TOLLS FOR THEE - Jered Weaver's first spring start looked about like you'd have feared going in, with further deterioration of his velocity (79 mph average, 81 mph max) and a precautionary neck MRI after the outing. I would be very surprised if this year doesn't represent the end of the line for Weaver, who is in the final year of his contract anyway, and it very well could open up an opportunity for Tyler Skaggs, Matt Shoemaker, or Nick Tropeano to slot into the rotation and provide some value. All three make solid reserve choices in deeper leagues to start the year, despite pitching behind what will likely be one of the bottom-5 offenses in the league this year.

CROOOOOOOOOOON - CJ Cron didn't show quite as much power as expected in his first full season in the majors, and as a one-trick pony in a declining offense his value is a bit limited. Still, he should be expected to pick up a full season's worth of playing time this year, and with an avg HR distance of over 405 feet he will likely post his first 20+ HR campaign. The contact issues will prevent him from assisting much elsewhere, but the power alone is worth a CI spot in leagues of 16 teams or greater.

HE'LL BE THROWING AT THE SPEED OF SOUND BY AGE 35 - Eovaldi looked great in his spring debut, touching 99 mph during his two perfect innings. If he's throwing 99 in March, I have no idea what he could top out at this year.....he's done nothing but increase his velocity steadily since he came into the league, moving up 2.6 mph over the last 4 years. A bit of poor fortune (aside from the W/L record) masked a very solid season from Eovaldi last year, as the development of a splitter helped him increase both his GB rate and K rate. An FIP ERA of 3.42 may be an optimistic target, but with an offense still firmly in the top-10 in MLB supporting him, a healthy Eovaldi should certainly be able to post 15 wins and an ERA well under 4.00. If the K numbers continue to increase, you're looking at a top-50 SP easily, and right now his ADP among SPs is 80. I think he's a huge bargain at his current value.

UTILITY IF'S ARE PEOPLE TOO - Robert Refsnyder has the inside track to be the utility IF for the Yanks this year, which is significant enough with the injury history of Mark Teixeira and the performance issues of Chase Headley and, to a lesser extent, Didi Gregorious. Refsnyder has done nothing but hit at every stop of his career, posting 290/381/432 career minor league slash line. He makes excellent contact and has enough power and speed to be a potential 10/10 guy. Hitting toward the bottom of a solid lineup, he could certainly be a valuable piece in deeper leagues if the playing time comes his way.

AROUND THE LEAGUE:

Scott Schebler - Schebler has started the spring off hot, going 7-19 with 2 2Bs, 2 HRs, and 2 SBs to take the early lead in the battle for the LF spot. Schebler is a 25 year old that was part of the 3-way Frazier deal this winter, and with 71 homers and 43 steals over the past three years in the Dodger organization, it's easy to see some potential here. Schebler will strike out some due to his free swinging ways, but his 3 MLB homers in September all traveled over 400 feet, and his batted ball distance has routinely been one of the highest in the minors over the past few seasons. If he can even wrest the good side of the platoon as far as playing time, a 15/10 season with some AVG vulnerability is easily within reach, making him a solid option in deep leagues and NL-only leagues. There is a bit of upside from there as well.

Ian Desmond - The more I think about it, the more excited I am about Desmond's prospects in Texas. It's definitely a favorable ballpark move, and there are a lot of reasons why you should expect a bounceback in performance for Desmond this year even if he were in the same environment. The second half surge is one positive, but the biggest thing is that he was 5th in MLB last year in avg HR distance. Only Eric Hosmer had fewer HR/AB among the top 50 players (minimum 15 HR) in HR distance last year, and the change in venue just adds to the likelihood that he will improve upon that once again in 2016. He's going in round 11 on average in standard leagues this year after going in round 2 last year....I would definitely make sure I grab him a round or two prior to that.

Socrates Brito - It's been announced that there is "definitely" a battle for the LF spot between Brito and Yasmany Tomas, and with Tomas already suffering from a sore left knee, it's worth taking a closer look at Brito, who is already 7-12 with 2 doubles and a SB this spring. Brito is 23 years old with good speed and a bit of power, projecting as a player that could hit 10-15 homers and steal 20-25 bases at his peak. He's a free swinger that does strike out a bit, but he's increased his average each of the past two years while moving from Low-A to high-A to AA. I think that he might be a bit unseasoned to open as a starting OF in the majors just yet, but the power/speed potential is there and he's bit for solid averages in the minors, so he merits watching as a potential late-game high-upside selection if it appears that the playing time will be there.

Tyler Naquin - There have been some positive rumblings about Naquin this spring, and with the OF situation a complete mess in Cleveland it's actually pretty likely that Naquin breaks camp with the club, as he can play all three positions credibly. Naquin doesn't have a lot of power, but he does spray some line drives around and has good speed. He profiles better as a 4th OF, meaning that he normally shouldn't be expected to have a lot of fantasy value, but for the early part of 2016 I could see him providing enough to warrant an OF5 spot in deeper leagues, assuming that he does come away from camp with the CF spot. I don't think there is a ton of potential here, but the Indian offense should at least be decent, and he may find himself at the top of the order by default.

Justin Turner - Turner has gone from an afterthought to one of the better 3B in the game since coming to the Dodgers two years ago, hitting 314/381/492 over 673 ABs. It's easy to see the evolution in his approach, as his outside-zone swing% has decreased, his in-zone swing% has increased, and his power and strikeout numbers have both gone up dramatically. To me, that paints a picture of a player that has come to understand the strike zone better, and he's exhibiting confidence by attacking pitches in the zone more aggressively. His AVG HR distance is only about 400 feet, so I would expect that 15 HRs is about where he tops out, but the LD percentages keep climbing every year...he was actually rather unlucky with his BABIP last season, and he probably should have been expected to hit over .300. Turner is a very solid choice at 3B once the top 4-6 guys are off the board, and in that offense he should be expected to provide positive value in all categories.

Danny Valencia - Valencia has blossomed a bit later than most hitters, having the two best years of his 6-year pro career at ages 28 and 30. Last year he popped 18 homers in just 345 ABs, hitting RHP better than LHP for the first time in his career. It's a small sample size to be sure, but he really enjoyed his short time in Oakland, hitting 11 homers (6 over 400 feet) in just 183 ABs and showing much more patience at the plate than he had ever before. He's posted hard contact rates well above average for four years running (albeit in part-time situations most years), and has ISO's over .200 twice in the past three seasons. Sometimes a situation just fits a player, and it is possible that this is the case in Oakland for Valencia. Still just 31, Valencia is currently the 26th 3B being drafted, and I think it's very possible that he will perform at least 10 spots better than that, making him a viable choice at CI in most formats.

Tyler Goeddel - OF injuries, a major one to Aaron Altherr and a minor one to Cody Asche, are opening up a playing time opportunity for Rule V pick Tyler Goeddel in Philly. Goeddel did something that is relatively rare last year, taking an offensive step forward in nearly every facet of his game while moving from A to AA, a move that is likely the second hardest step in baseball. He hit 279/350/433 with 12 HRs and 28 SBs as a 22 year old at AA while learning a new position in 2015, and with a situation in Philly so desperate that Peter Bourjos is slated to start in one corner, there is playing time to be had for a guy that has to stay on the roster if Philly wants to keep him. He could provide 10 HR and 20 SB if he can win the LF job, although Asche will likely push him once his oblique is healed. Goeddel makes a reasonable end-game flyer in leagues deeper than standard-size.

Kenta Maeda - It's always a bit of a crapshoot trying to forecast the international players that come to the US from leagues that offer a much lower level of competition, but it looks to me that Kenta Maeda is definitely being drafted too low thus far. It's a somewhat lazy comparison, but Maeda projects to perform a bit like his countrymen Hiroki Kuroda and Hisashi Iwakuma: excellent control of solid stuff that's a bit below ace level. Throw in the fact that Dodger Stadium is a good place to pitch and the Dodgers project to have the 2nd best offense in the NL, and you've got a guy that should post very solid numbers across the board. He's the 57th SP off the board right now, which I believe underrates his potential by a good 15-20 spots....I think he is a solid SP3 right out of the gate.

Aledmys Diaz - I know the Cards are bandying about moving Jedd Gyorko over to SS to fill in for Jhonny Peralta for the first few months of the season, or using replacement-level bat Greg Garcia there if Gyorko can't handle it defensively, but this is a terrific opportunity for Aledmys Diaz to justify the investment made in him a few years back. Diaz was terrific in the second half of last season, hitting 337/402/584, and he also posted the 3rd-highest OPS in the AFL last fall at .986. He has good power and average speed at a premium position, so watch these next few weeks carefully: Diaz has much more potential than the other two players vying for this spot. If he can win the job, he should very easily provide enough value to justify a starting MIF spot in standard leagues to open the year.

Jorge Soler - The Cubs are loaded on offense, which appears to be bad news for two younger players that need some playing time to maximize their potential. Both Javier Baez and Jorge Soler are free-swingers with excellent power, but both are on the outside looking in as far as playing time on the North Side right now. Soler's hard contact rate and LD rate were both top-20 level if he had played enough to qualify last year (he had 404 PA) and his avg HR distance was over 408 feet, illustrating just how much potential the 24 year old offers, but for the time being he appears to be behind Fowler, Schwarber, and Heyward in the OF pecking order. It always bothers me to see players in their early 20's that clearly need playing time to refine their approach blocked during their peak growth years, so hopefully something will happen that opens up some playing time for him. In the current situation, Soler isn't worth much more than a reserve slot in deeper formats, but the potential is clearly there for an impact bat if the playing time does open up in some fashion.

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