Indians Notes:
Francisco Lindor, CLE
Lindor enters the 2016 season as one of Cleveland's bright spots, not only because of his superior defense but also because of his incredible .313/.353/.482 slash and 12 HR's in 99 games in his rookie campaign last year. You can call me a pessimist if you like, but I do not expect Lindor to hit .300 this season nor do I expect to approach 20 homers (his full season pace from 2015). Lindor is a very good contact hitter (15.8% K%) which should allow him to hit for a plus-average, but his average LD% and mediocre Hard% do not support his .348 BABIP from last season, nor does the fact that his BABIP was never so high in the minors. The power also seemed to come out of nowhere, as Lindor has 24 career minor league homeruns in about 3 ½ seasons. Is it possible for him to be a better major league hitter than he ever was in the minors? I guess it's possible, but it would take more than 4 months of MLB playing time to convince me. I would still consider Lindor a top-ten SS, but I don't think I would take him as a top-100 overall player, which is where he's going in drafts right now.
Jose Ramirez, CLE
While I do expect Lindor to regress, I don't expect him to lose the starting SS job in Cleveland anytime soon. With him and Jason Kipnis filling up the Indians' middle infield, there isn't much room for Jose Ramirez to get regular playing time. At first glance, this doesn't seem to be much of a shame as Ramirez only hit .219 with minimal power last year anyway. But the peripherals indicate that Ramirez has the potential to be a solid offensive player. His career K% of 12% is excellent, as is his miniscule 5.1% SwStr%. Those numbers should allow him to hit for a decent average even if his Hard% is very low. Equally as impressive was his 9.0% BB% in 2015, which certainly helped contribute to his 50 runs scored in only 355 PA's last year. A shortstop with a decent BA who can score runs and steal bases (20 SB's in 635 career PA's) has value even in standard mixed-leagues, if playing every day. The problem is that unless there's an injury, or the Indians get sick of Juan Uribe at 3rd base, playing every day doesn't seem to be imminent for Ramirez.
Rajai Davis, CLE
The outfield situation in Cleveland has become a bit clearer thanks to the 80-game suspension recently placed on Abraham Almonte. This means that Davis, who was anyways expected to play regularly against lefties, has a very good chance of playing every day in centerfield, at least until Michael Brantley comes back, but possibly even beyond that point. While hitting against righties won't likely help his batting average, it should give a significant boost to his counting stats, namely SB's and runs scored. If you're looking for steals late in the draft and want someone who shouldn't hurt your average and will contribute modestly in other areas, Davis is increasingly looking like an enticing option.
Tigers Notes:
Bryan Holaday, DET
Holaday entered spring training seemingly behind James McCann and Jared Saltalamacchia in the Tigers' catching depth chart, which could potentially lead to him looking for another organization, seeing as he is out of options. Now Holaday has gone 6 for 8 with 3 homeruns and 2 doubles to start the spring, and if this keeps up, the Tigers may try to find a way for him to stick around. The power is surprising to say the least, as Holaday has only 3 homeruns total in 108 big league games and has never topped 7 dingers in a minor league season. Nonetheless, if he could somehow manage to get regular playing time - in Detroit or elsewhere - the threshold for being a fantasy relevant catcher is not set very high.
James McCann, DET
For now, the catching job in Detroit is McCann's to lose, and he hasn't hurt himself so far this spring as he's 3-9 with a 2B through his first four games. Although he also has four strikeouts. While McCann hit a decent .264 last season and his 21.2% K% wasn't that bad, there's reason to believe that the K's are going up and the BA going down. His 12.2 SwStr% is high, and he swings at over 40% of pitches outside the zone, one of the worst marks in the league. There's also not much supporting his .325 BABIP. However, he did post an excellent .320/.359/.557 line against southpaws last year with strong LD and Hard-Hit rates, so he does make for a good daily play when the Tigers face a lefty.
Victor Martinez, DET
Is Victor Martinez washed up? At age 37, he's coming off a season in which he hit .245 with a .667 OPS, both career lows. As a result, his ADP is outside the top 200, and he is going undrafted in many leagues. Yet I still feel he may have something left in the tank. True, his 10.7% K% last year was his highest since 2009, but it is still elite by any standards other than his own. His BABIP fell to .253 after 9 consecutive seasons of being over .300, yet his Hard% was above league average and only slightly below his career mark. If he can stay healthy, I don't see why he can't go back to being a .300 hitter, or at least something close. As far as his power, the 32 HR's from 2014 seem to be an anomaly, but he still managed to compile 11 homeruns and 64 RBI in 120 games last year. If he can manage to play in 140-150 this season, then 15 HR's-80 RBI would seem reasonable. So far this spring, V-Mart is 5 for 12 with 2 homeruns, so I don't think I'm crazy for speculating a rebound. How many guys are there available at the end of drafts who can boost your BA and give you valuable counting stats?
Anibal Sanchez, DET
Sanchez hopes to be ready for the start of the season for the Tigers as he recovers from a triceps injury. I say hopes, as Sanchez has been marred by injuries the past couple years, averaging 23 starts a piece in the past two seasons. His performance last year was underwhelming, as he posted a 4.99 ERA, thanks in a large part to the 29 HR's allowed. The 16.0% HR/FB should regress but the high FB-rates do make HR's a risk. His above average BB and strikeout rates make him a viable late-round draft pick, but he doesn't seem like the same pitcher who posted a 2.57 ERA and struck out nearly 10 batters per 9 innings just two 3 years ago.
White Sox Notes:
White Sox sign outfielder Austin Jackson
Jackson has signed a 1 year, $5 million deal with the White Sox and joins Adam Eaton, Melky Cabrera, and Avisail Garcia in Chicago's outfield. As of now, it looks like those four and Adam LaRoche will be battling for playing time between the three outfield positions and the DH spot. If Eaton is limited to DH duties to start the season because of his shoulder injury, then Jackson should be playing every day. Even if Eaton is in the outfield, it's more likely that Garcia and LaRoche will spend more time on the bench than Jackson. In terms of fantasy, the issue is more whether Jackson still has enough numbers to bring to the table. While he has contributed a .273 career average, good stolen base totals, and sometimes some power, he really made his mark in the runs scored category, with 4 straight 90+ run seasons from 2010-2013. But that number has lagged the last couple years, partially because of a declining BB-rate, partially because he hasn't been batting leading off as often, and partially because he has left what was a very strong Tigers offense. As far as his power is concerned, his GB% over the past year and a half has climbed to over 50% so it's hard to expect more than 10 homeruns. Even with an everyday role, it's hard to view Jackson as much more than a minimum wage option.
Adam LaRoche, CWS
For the record, I do expect LaRoche to bouneback somewhat from last year's awful campaign. Even though his 27.5% K% was the 2nd highest mark of his career and his LD% in 2015 was a career low, he still had a Hard% well above league average, and it's hard not improve on a .207 BA. That being said, the Austin Jackson signing just cut into LaRoche's playing time more than it was already going to be cut into due to lack of performance. And if Adam Eaton can't play the outfield to start the season, he will be starting at DH instead in which case LaRoche would be on the bench anyways. Not to mention that LaRoche had an embarrassing .383 OPS against LHP this year and it's hard to imagine him getting many AB's against them in 2016. All things considered, even if LaRoche isn't as bad as last year, it's hard to consider him relevant in fantasy right now.
Avisail Garcia, CWS
Garcia is another player who will likely be affected by the Austin Jackson signing, especially since his stronger side against lefties is also the side Jackson has been better against the past couple years, although Garcia should still see time at DH against southpaws. Still, Garcia's underwhelming numbers thus far into his career make him no more than a late-round flier with hope for major upside. If I was thinking about drafting Garcia with that in mind, I probably will be looking elsewhere now as I'd rather hope for upside from someone who will be playing every day.
Jimmy Rollins, CWS
Rollins is likely to make the White Sox Opening Day roster, and very possibly be their starting SS. The BA will not be there for Rollins, as despite still making excellent contact, he hasn't topped the .252 mark in average any of the past four years. Double-digit homeruns and steals however remain a possibility. Although the 12 steals in 2015 were a 15-year low which may not just be a fluke, Rollins had stolen 110 bases in the previous 4 seasons, so it's not out of the question that he still has jump in his steps as he moves across his late 30s. A shortstop who can hit 10+ HR's with 20 SB's and 70 runs has a place in fantasy, but can Rollins still match those numbers?
Around the League:
Albert Pujols, LAA
Pujols began his spring training on Sunday, which is a good sign as far as him being ready for Opening Day from his foot injury. I can't say I wasn't surprised that Pujols hit 40 HR's last season, but that doesn't mean I won't be surprised if he does it again in 2016. The power is almost sure to decline (although a 25-30 HR season wouldn't be too shabby either), but the BA should rise as Pujols still makes excellent contact and a .217 BABIP is just too hard to repeat. Still, the injury risk makes it hard to draft Pujols with confidence.
Byung-Ho Park, MIN
Park hit a grand slam for the Twins on Sunday and is primed to be a power source for the Twins alongside Miguel Sano. Fantasy players tend to be cautious drafting rookies from across seas, even those with major upside, making Park a good player to target in drafts. As a lower round pick who could potentially approach 30-homers, he doesn't carry more risk than most of the players being drafted around him.
Masahiro Tanaka, NYY
Tanaka threw two scoreless innings in his spring debut on Sunday and looks to be ready to start Opening Day. His excellent BB% and very good K% mean the ratios should be there for Tanaka, but the injury risk is for some reason just too hard for me to ignore. Tanaka has a chance to be great, but I just couldn't rely on him to be one of my aces and for me that usually means not taking him until the middle rounds. Of course by then he probably won't be available.
Chase Utley, LAD
Utley will not have to serve the two-game suspension which he received for a slide during last year's NLDS. However, Utley looks to spend this year in a reserve role, so the suspension wouldn't have made much difference anyways. Like his former teammate Jimmy Rollins, Utley still makes great at age 37, but his BA has deteriorated nonetheless. The strange thing with Utley is that his LD% and Hard% are still very respectable, so you would have to think his .230 BABIP from 2015 will be on the rise. Over the course of a full season, Utley would project to hit double-digit homers with decent runs/RBI but even that would barely make him ownable. Right now he is a backup, so he's not on the fantasy radar.
