Cincinnati Reds-News and Notes
J.J. Hoover as closer
Reds manager Bryan Price has stated, if the season started today that J.J. Hoover would be the closer. J.J. Hoover has saved five games over his career, so this is going to be new territory for the 28 yr. old reliever. He has shown the skills in the past to succeed in a closer role, but struggled last year. He posted a 2.99 ERA (4.62 xFIP), 7.27 K/9, and 4.34 BB/9. The concern with Hoover is the drop in strikeouts. He had been near 9.0 K/9 the past two seasons. He really needs to be near a strikeout per inning to combat his control problems (career 4.06 BB/9). He did up his GB% significantly last season after being primarily a flyball pitcher. Hoover is going to be fantasy relevant because he will get the first look at the Reds saves, but there are real questions about his ability to hold onto the job over the course of the season. Jumbo Diaz looks to be next in line and he has more of the closer profile (10.44 K/9 and 2.49 BB/9).
Late round SS with upside: Eugenio Suarez
Eugenio Suarez is a guy that isn't getting a ton of love from the fantasy community as a "sleeper" late in drafts. There has been so much buzz about the young shortstops (Correa, Lindor, and Seager) that people are overlooking how shallow the SS position truly is. There is a huge dropoff after the top five shortstops. This is when guys like Ian Desmond and Marcus Semien become interesting options late because of their potential to go 20 HR/15 SB. A guy that could potentially come close to those numbers at a much cheaper price is Eugenio Suarez. He is only 24 yrs. old and slashed .280/13/48 with 4 SB in 97 games for the Reds last year. He is an aggressive hitter that doesn't walk much, but he has the skills to hit for power (20 HR). He also has the speed to reach 10+ stolen bases and the Reds have shown that they allow their guys to run. The concern is that his average was driven by a .341 BABIP and his lack of plate discipline will lead to serious regression. However, he swung at a lower percentage of pitches out of the zone than the league, which means that he has a good idea of the strike zone, but is super aggressive. Suarez is someone that isn't going to cost much on draft day, but could bring back tremendous value in terms of HR/SB. He is going as the 16th SS on average in NFBC leagues and could easily finish top 10 if given a full time role, which is looking likely. He will also gain dual position eligibility (SS/3B) with Cozart playing SS this year.
Reds Rotation: Full of Questions
Reds manager Bryan Price is still deciding on what his rotation is going to look like on Opening Day. The definites are Anthony DeScalafani and Rasiel Iglesias. The other three rotation spots are still up in the air due to injuries and ineffectiveness. Homer Bailey will have a spot in the rotation, but he is recovering from TJS. John Lamb (back), Michael Lorenzen (elbow), and Jon Moscot (intercostal strain) are unlikely to be ready for the start of the season. This leaves the three rotation spots to Brandon Finnegan, Alfredo Simon, and Tim Melville.
Brandon Finnegan came over in the Johnny Cueto deal from Kansas City and is a left-hander with good stuff, but struggles with control (3.94 BB/9). He has an 8.18 ERA this spring, which is not a good sign. He has shown the ability to miss bats (9.00 K/9, 10% SwStr) over his career, which offers upside, but his lack of control leads to a lot of baserunners and home runs (1.5 HR/9)
Alfredo Simon is back with the Reds after a disappointing 2015 season in Detroit. Simon posted a 3.44 ERA over 196 IP in 2014. That was more smoke and mirrors than anything though. He has posted strikeout rates below 6.00 K/9 the past two years. He also does not have an elite groundball percentage, which makes it less likely that he will ever repeat a sub 4.00 ERA again. Some owners will point to his success in Cincinnati and use that as an excuse to draft SImon, but don't be that owner. A pitcher that doesn't miss bats and doesn't get a ton of ground balls is going to have a hard time succeeding in Great American Ballpark.
The advice here is to avoid both Brandon Finnegan and Alfredo Simon. The guy to keep your eye on is Cody Reed whenever the Reds decide to give him his first shot at the major leagues.
Toronto Blue Jays-News and Notes
Can J.A. Happ transition to the A.L.?
J.A. Happ revived his career last year in Pittsburgh and transitioned that into a 3 year/$36M deal with the Blue Jays. Happ had a 4.73 ERA prior to Pittsburgh and a 1.87 ERA after. There were multiple factors that led to Happ's success. For starters the move to the National League typically drops pitchers ERA's on average .41 ERA points. Another factor is that PNC Park is a great pitcher's park, especially for left-handed starters. The third factor was the Pirates ability to use defensive positioning to turn more balls in play into outs. The Jays obviously believe that it was more than those three contextual factors that led to Happ's success. They believe in the increased strikeout numbers in the second half. Happ didn't change his batted ball profile (GB/FB) while in Pittsburgh, which is concerning with the move back to the A.L. and a hitter friendly home park. He started using his slider more and curve less, which is both good and bad. It will lead to more strikeouts, but leaves him primarily a two pitch pitcher and susceptible to right-handed batters. Expect regression for Happ in his return to Toronto.
The final rotation spot is still up for grabs
The Jays started with four candidates for the final rotation spot and have narrowed it down to Aaron Sanchez and Gavin Floyd. Drew Hutchison is likely ticketed for Triple-A and Jesse Chavez to the bullpen to serve as the long man/spot starter. Aaron Sanchez is the younger of the two and has a plus fastball (95mph). However, his problem is that his only other offering is a curveball. He has no weapon against left-handed hitters and struggles with control (4.29 BB/9). Sanchez's game would be best suited for a bullpen role where he excelled last year. On the other side of the competition is veteran Gavin Floyd. From 2008-12 Floyd averaged 30+ starts a year for the White Sox. He put up very solid numbers in a hitter friendly park and league (A.L.). However, he has made just 14 starts over the past three seasons. Floyd in the past has offered league average strikeout, GB%, and ERA's.
Neither guys are of interest in mixed leagues, but the winner becomes instantly viable in A.L.-Only leagues as they will pitch on a team that is expected to contend. Sanchez is the younger of the two and represents upside. While Floyd is the solid, yet unspectacular veteran. With the season less ten days away, the Jays are going to have to make a decision quickly.
Who will be the closer?
The battle between Robert Osuna and Drew Storen for the closer's role is a very important competition for fantasy purposes. The winner is going to be vaulted into being a top tier closer due to the team they are playing on. Both have the skills and experience closing. Storen is thought to have the edge due more experience, but Osuna was able to hold his own last year and has more upside long term than Storen. Currently, the fantasy community is leaning towards Storen being the closer as he is going on average as the 23rd closer and Osuna as the 28th. Drafting both would be the ideal strategy, but it is going to come down to manager John Gibbons decision. The one factor that sometimes comes into play is that Storen is already expensive (1 yr/$8.4 M) and the Jays might want to keep Osuna cheap for the future by limiting his saves, because saves become very expensive during arbitration years.
Around the League
J.J. Hardy (SS-BAL)
J.J. Hardy hit his third home run on Saturday, which is a good sign after his power disappeared over the past two seasons. He is 33 yrs. old and it seems like he has lost his bat speed. His pull% has declined for four straight years, which is a sign of losing bat speed. It is also alarming that along with a decrease in his pull%, is the total disappearance of his power. It used to be his only usable contribution in fantasy as he doesn't steal bases and his counting stats will be limited due to his spot in the order. At this point there are plenty of other intriguing options at shortstop that at least will excel in at least one category.
Jackie Bradley (OF-BOS)
Jackie Bradley is hitting .378 with 2 HR this spring and has moved ahead of Rusney Castillo as the Red Sox third OF. Bradley hit .280 with 9 HR and 3 SB in the second half for the Red Sox. Bradley has been full of potential, but has never had sustained success at the plate. He plays excellent defense, which will keep in the lineup. It is an excellent sign that he has carried his second half success into the spring. Bradley is someone who offers a lot of upside with a potential for 15 HR/10 SB with a 10% BB rate. He is going on average as the 94th OF in drafts, which bakes in a ton of value if he can go 15/10.
Andrew Bailey (RP-PHI)
Andrew Bailey is in a competition with David Hernandez for the Phillies closer role. Hernandez is thought to of had the leg up heading into camp. However, an injury to his triceps has introduced Andrew Bailey into the fold. Bailey has experience as a closer with Oakland, but has given up runs in back to back outings. Bailey has got his fastball back (94mph), which is good news for his strikeout potential, which is going to be key to getting the closer job. At this point it is a coin flip for who gets the role, but Hernandez is going a full 40 picks earlier in drafts. If you want safety go with Hernandez, but Bailey is the darkhorse candidate, who offers nice upside.
Odubel Herrera (OF-PHI)
Odubel Herrera is hitting .367 this spring in 30 AB's. This is coming off a season in which he hit .297 with 8 HR and 16 SB. Herrera is going to see regression in his batting average due to his .387 BABIP coming back to reality, which would put him in the .270-.280 range. He does offer the possibility of a 10 HR/20 SB season, which paired with his decent average makes him an attractive late game pick.The playing time is going to be there for Herrera, which can't be said for other late game options.
Jacob deGrom (SP-NYM)
Jacob deGrom frightened people by sitting 90-92 in his last outing. He was asked about it and he said that he was not worried. Reports from Saturday's start had him sitting 93-94, which is encouraging. DeGrom also said that he took more time off this offseason to recover from the post season and expects his velocity to continue to climb as we get closer to the season. DeGrom is still in line to be a top 15 pitcher in baseball, with top 10 upside due his climbing strikeout and low walk rates.
Gregory Polanco (OF-PIT)
Gregory Polanco was scratched from Saturday's game with right shoulder soreness. This was a result of diving for a ball Friday night. The Pirates are being cautious with Polanco and he should be fine after a couple of days of rest. Polanco is looking to take the next step forward in 2016. He offers a very exciting blend of power, speed, and average. He hasn't quite put it together yet, but the skills are there. He walks 8% of the time, strikes out less than the league average, and had a career high 30% hard hit rate. He also had an excellent second half that saw him slash .276 with 6 HR and 10 SB. Polanco offers legitimate 15 HR/30 SB upside, which would make him a top 20 OF and he is being drafted as the 29th OF on average in drafts.
Scott Kazmir (SP-LAD)
Scott Kazmir left Saturday's start with an abdominal injury, but is expected to make his next start. The Dodgers cannot afford another injury to their rotation at this point. The injury is of concern even though he does not think it is a big deal. Kazmir had a bad second half in which his ERA rose to 3.86 and his strikeouts dropped to 6.50 K/9. Kazmir also experienced a decline in velocity, which hasn't come back this spring. The warning signs are there for Kazmir and an injury on top of that is not a good thing. Kazmir is a big time risk to bounce back at this stage in his career.
Manny Machado (3B-BAL)
Manny Machado is hitting .306/.358/.612 with 4 HR's this spring. Machado has cemented himself in the first round of drafts with his monster 2015 season (.286/35/86 with 20 SB). Machado made all of the necessary adjustments to transition into being an elite hitter. He walked more, struck out less, made more hard contact, and hit more fly balls. Machado's peripherals and batted ball profile back up his 2015 season. The only outlier is the 20 SB, which he hadn't shown before. He has the speed and athleticism to do it again, health is the only limiting factor. The only other factor to keep an eye on is his spot in the order. He primarily hit leadoff for the Orioles last year, but would be better suited as a two or three hitter. Either way he is going to score or drive more runs in depending in where he is in the lineup.
Tyler White (1B-HOU)
Tyler White hit his second home run of the spring on Saturday off Robbie Erlin. A.J. Reed is the guy everyone is talking about for the Astros 1B job, but he likely to begin the year in the minors and won't be up until June or July. White has the inside track to the first base job. This will make him instantly relevant in AL Only leagues and deep mixed leagues. White was relatively unknown coming out of Western Carolina, but has an interesting blend of skills that could translate to fantasy success. He has shown the ability to get on base with nothing lower than a .362 OBP at any level. He has the ability to hit 10-15 HR with a .350+ OBP in a very good Astros lineup. He will obviously be more valuable in AL Only and OBP leagues, but he is someone to keep an eye on.
Michael Conforto (OF-NYM)
Michael Conforto returned to the lineup Sunday after missing a couple of days with back tightness. Conforto is slotted to be the everyday left-fielder for the Mets. He should also hit near the middle of an underrated Mets offense. He slashed .270/.335/.506 with 9 HR and 26 RBI in 56 games. The 23 yr. old has immense upside this season. He has 30 HR upside as soon as this year. He had the fifth highest exit velocity last season at 93.96mph. He also pulls the ball (45%) and hits enough fly balls (39%) to come close to the 30 HR plateau. He needs to improve against LHP, but the sky's the limit for Conforto.
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