Let's get things rolling with a simple comparison ...
Player A - 331 games, 1,222 ABs, .294 AVG, 46 HR, 149 RBI, 188 R, 25 SB, .371 OBP, .487 SLG
Player B - 357 games, 1,309 ABs, .272 AVG, 55 HR, 149 RBI, 210 R, 31 SB, .351 OBP, .465 SLG
Both 'Player A' and 'Player B' totaled those numbers over the course of their first three major league seasons. Both 'Player A' and 'Player B' are corner outfielders. Both 'Player A' and 'Player B' arrived on the big league stage with light bulbs flashing and autograph hounds circling. Both 'Player A' and 'Player B' finished their first three years with attitude, injury, and adaptability concerns.
So, if you were forecasting the 4th season for the pair, whose profile would you prefer?
In the world of the internet I'm guessing that your eyes have already scrolled to the big reveal (no pages to turn in the 21st century!). 'Player A' is the now-maligned and disappointing, Yasiel Puig. 'Player B' is the now-celebrated and worshipped, Bryce Harper.
As we enter the final fortnight before the start of the 2016 season, it's worth recalling that just 12 months ago, Harper was not at all different from where Puig is now when it came to ... stats. It's actually amazing to see how similar these two freaks have been through their first 330+ games. Of course, Harper went on to a season for the ages in his fourth go-around with 42 yard jobs, 99 RBI, 118 runs, and an OPS that was over 1.100! Just insane.
No one can possibly be predicting that for Puig. And I won't. But, I've been blown away by the amount of negativity that his name engenders whenever it comes up in conversation this spring. This happens so often that he's become the poster child for the usual fantasy cycle that most young guys go through. It was back in the summer of 2013, hosting a show on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio, where we would spend entire segments discussing Puig. Callers were already knighting him as the next Mantle or Joltin' Joe. At the time, pitchers had no answers for his on-going assault from the batters' box. All in all, the sky was not even the limit in most peoples' minds.
Fast forward a few years and you'll find a Puig who has regressed in every facet of his game. His attitude is a major hindrance. His free-swinging ways have not tamed in the least. He seems to have a muscle pull every single month. And, most importantly ... his numbers have tanked. This is now a young player who appears to be on a 'last chance' in the fantasy community this year.
The perception is that Puig is yesterday's story and has been fully surpassed by names such as Charlie Blackmon, Lorenzo Cain, and George Springer. But, the reality is that he could out-do all three of those more highly-sought OFs without using much imagination. There is still an immense amount of talent and skill in Puig's Dodger-blanketed body. Puig is a true make-or-break player for fantasy leaguers because there is such a wide spectrum of where his numbers could land. But, he's always worth drafting because of the 'what could happen.'
If you took away all the drama and off-the-field nonsense, you'd be left with this profile ... a very talented outfielder who is still just 25; a strong batting average despite a propensity to chase; good speed, good power; prevalent injury issues; and, a starting job that has him hitting in anywhere from 2-to-5 in the batting order.
If I could lasso that as my 2nd fantasy outfielder, I would do it without hesitation. There's no way he busts out like Harper did in Year-4 (Harper may never have a season like that again), but Puig can still be uber-productive in the fantasy world. If he finds his way to 140 games, I'd slot him for .285/.360/.480 with 20 homers, 75+ RBI, 80+ runs, and double-digit steals. That's a five-cat asset that exists with less than 10 other players in the majors.
Here are a handful of other players who have lost a good deal of luster in recent years, but who sport the ability to shine in 2016 ...
Starlin Castro
Remember when Castro was supposed to be a 'decade-long keeper' in our often overzealous fantasy world? You know, kind of what Corey Seager is considered to be, right now?! Castro stalled out in the midst of the Wrigley Field Rebuild, but he was never truly awful. In effect, four of his six seasons on the North Side were quite good with an OPS over-.750. Even his career .725 OPS is nothing to sneeze at when you consider his peers up the middle. My most bullish thought on Castro is that he should set a career-best home run mark this year (he's hit 14 twice) and if there are injuries to the old guys in the Yankees' offense, you'll see Castro boost his way to the top of the order and the solid numbers will follow.
Drew Hutchison
Hutchison is an utter enigma. The tools appear to be there (good fastball, solid slider), but consistency has been in short supply. Just look at last season when Hutchison went 11-2 with a stellar 2.91 ERA at home. On the road ... away from the scoring shuttle that is the Rogers Centre? How about 2-3 with an ERA of 9.83 ... in 13 starts! Toronto is a tad frustrated, too. They're going to plant his arm in Triple-A to start the upcoming year. But, I actually sense it could be good for him. I think he can still get 20+ starts, whiff a batter per inning, and show massive improvement in his ERA. A final round pick is a good spot for him. If nothing is shaking by late-April, you can move along.
Ian Kennedy
Do you have any recollection of Kennedy's 2nd full season in the majors? That was 2011. And, that was the season where the righty nearly won a Cy Young award with 21 wins and a sub-3.00 ERA for Arizona. At that point, folks were pretty hyped about the former-Yankees farmhand. However, since that gilded season Kennedy has averaged 11 victories per year. Even a year in San Diego couldn't save him. He was bruised (9-15 record) and battered (4.28 ERA) all season. He's now in KC and will get to take advantage of another good hurlers' ballpark, but with a spectacular set of defensive players behind him. I also ask you to consider his sky-high 1.7 HR/9 of '15. A look at his career shows that to be a true outlier. He should get that number near 1 this season. Twenty-one wins isn't going to happen again, but I could see 15 with an ERA around 3.50.
Gregory Polanco
Polanco arrived in Pittsburgh with more admirers than a bottle of wine at a table full of drunks. And he was fairly good to start. But, as so often occurs, he eventually looked like a rookie and went through some rough spells. In the world of 'I Will Wait for Nothing!' he was discarded and all the first-year fantasy fanatics turned their attention to other supposed gems. His first full season in '15 was rough, but showed enough runs of excellence to give me hope for the future. The Pirates appear totally sold on him. He should play every day and no one in the front office seems overly concerned with his chances. The key will be developing his power. He supposedly had that tool coming up, but we've seen none of it at this level. But, hey, it's a 24 year old we're discussing. Power should develop. Speed is there. He even scored 83 runs last year while 'struggling.' A sniff at a 20/20 season is very possible.
Mark Trumbo
In Anaheim, he pounded the ball, but fought for playing time. He was traded to Arizona and 40 homers appeared automatic. It never happened and that means he's a bum in today's fantasy world. A flip to Seattle turned things around slightly. I expect his 4th team (!) to be the one that clicks. I'm not breaking any news here, but Trumbo should be a serious contender for mid-30s homers in Baltimore. The team will embrace his style and Camden Yards is a hitters' dream with a 3-year park factor of 130 HR/RH. He's not an MVP candidate, but he's a great power-RBI man.
Jordan Zimmermann
Is anyone talking about this guy? One dud of a season and everyone seems finished with Zimmermann. What's telling about his last season in Washington is that he was just about the same guy as always, but fell into some unlucky canyons. Check it out ... his K-rate (7.3) and BB-rate (1.7) were almost the same as he averaged in his 'good years.' The unlucky (BABIP, HR/FB rate, and an elevated strand rate) is what got him. Great number ... since 2012, only four guys have started more games than Zimmermann and the only one of them with a better ERA is Max Scherzer. And, that difference? 3.13 to 3.12. Zimmermann is really good and has been for multiple years. Don't let the negative vibes cause you to forget about him on draft day.
You can hear Kyle each weeknight on 'The SiriusXM Fantasy Drive' from 7-10 ET, Sirius 210, XM 87.
Draft Advisor:
bring our winning strategy (Serpentine /
Auction) to your draft. Our player
rankings adjust as players are selected, adhering to the changing
dynamics of your draft. After a player is selected/drafted, the
software will display/suggest the best players remaining.
Purchase Today!
href="https://www.insiderbaseball.com/baseballsample.htm"> height=17 src="https://www.insiderbaseball.com/images/MoreInfoWhite.gif" width=93 border=0>
Dennis Dee
Mar 19, 16 at 12:00 AM
Zimmerman? Every time I take a pitcher going from the NL to the AL I get burned. Don't do it