NEW LEAGUE, RETRO PERFORMANCE? - The converse of the "bet on pitchers moving to the NL" theory isn't quite as sure of a bet, but it does tend to help a bit, and in Andrelton Simmons' case in particular there may be cause for optimism. Simmons eschewed his 2013 pull-happy ways in Atlanta the past few years, seemingly content to spray the ball around the yard instead without a lot of productivity. Despite that, he continued to show above-average power in terms of avg HR distance in 2014-15, coming in at 407 and 403 feet respectively, figures that are solidly above average. Simmons has always made contact well regardless of how much power he was attempting to generate, and now he will be in a better offense in a slightly more favorable park. A return to 15 homers seems very possible, and with his contact rate the AVG shouldn't prove to be a hindrance either. At present, I'd value him as a lower-tier MIF in leagues of standard size, but at just 26 and with the scenery change, there's certainly upside here.
MANY ARMS MAKE FOR.....UNCERTAINTY - The Angels have a sizable number of contenders for the rotation this spring, with 8 pitchers by my count that could reasonably break camp with a rotation spot. Clearly, Garrett Richards is a lock, and CJ Wilson would seem to be one as well if his shoulder is OK. The team also seems intent on letting Jered Weaver crash and burn his way through the finish line of his Angel career, although that could change if he starts 2016 the way he finished 2015. Andrew Heaney seems to be a clear 4th starter right now, although Scioscia says that isn't a guarantee just yet. That leaves Hector Santiago (outperformed his peripherals significantly again in 2015 but posted an ERA of nearly 5.50 in the second half with declining velocity), Tyler Skaggs (returning from TJ surgery and still rather raw), Matt Shoemaker (struggled with homers in 2015 after an excellent rookie year), and Nick Tropeano (excellent peripherals in his brief major league stints with mixed minor league performance) for just one slot. This will definitely be a case where we watch and see what progresses during March, but it seems to me at this point that the Angels are leaning on going with Heaney and the 4 veterans over the three young options (Tropeano, Skaggs, and Shoemaker). I think that it's inevitable that Weaver will struggle, and I'm very concerned about Santiago as well, so there is likely "opportunity for advancement" here. Skaggs and Tropeano both have significant potential, and are worthwhile stash picks in leagues with deeper reserve rosters even if they don't break camp with the club. Tropeano in particular is intriguing, as he posted an FIP of 2.60 and a 11.5% swinging strike rate in 7 starts last year with the Angels. If he broke camp in the rotation, I would even take a look at him for standard-sized leagues, and the same goes for Skaggs.
SOPHOMORE SWOON FOR SEVERINO? - Luis Severino had a terrific 11-start debut in 2015, posting a 2.89 ERA and winning 5 of those outings despite a quick hook from Joe Girardi. That said, he vastly outperformed his peripherals during that stretch, and when you add in the typical Yankee-related bias, odds are Severino is overvalued in your league right now. Severino should probably be valued as a borderline SP4/SP5 right now. There are plenty of reasons for optimism between the raw stuff and the solid GB rate, but for every expectation of HR/FB regression there is equal reason to believe that the BABIP will worsen, and his control isn't stellar either. I do think that ultimately Severino could be a #2 starter, but for this season an ERA in the high-3.00's with a solid WHIP and K numbers is probably what should be expected.
WHY SHOULD WE CARE ABOUT A BACKUP CATCHER? - The combination of normal LOS prospect fatigue and Yankee prospect fatigue is especially strong with Sanchez, but the 23 year old managed 25 HRs and 11 SBs in 453 ABs last year between AA, AAA, and the AFL. Those are solid numbers from a kid that was 22 for the whole year at any position, but from a catcher? Pretty unusual to be sure. Sanchez is still blocked by Brian McCann in the Bronx, a situation that may persist for another couple of years due to contract issues, but the injury possibility certainly looms large with 32 year old catchers. Sanchez does have the typical young power hitter contact-related issues, but he would instantly be a potential #1 C in just about all formats if he were to stumble into more playing time. As it stands, even as the backup C he merits a look in deeper 2-catcher formats.
NO LUCKKKKKK FOR TAYLOR YET - In retrospect, a player like Taylor who had his contact issues all the way up the ladder was perhaps not the best choice to replace Jayson Werth full-time early last year, but his defense is so good that the Nationals figured they would deal with the development on the fly. After a year of watching Taylor swing and miss 16% of the time, they decided against giving him the CF job this spring, opting to deal for Ben Revere instead. Taylor is now without a consistent route to playing time......except for the fact that he can platoon with Revere and that Jayson Werth is 37 years old. Werth has missed fairly significant chunks of 3 of the last 4 seasons, and players generally don't get healthier as time goes by. With that in mind, Taylor is a good name to keep in the back of your head, as he clearly has 20/20 potential (he hit 24/39 in 2014 at 3 levels) and will play this year at age 25. The AVG will likely always be an issue, but with potential contributions everywhere else he could still be a solid choice with the requisite playing time. For the time being, however, he's a farm option only for deep leaguers.
THE NEXT LONG-TERM NATIONALS SS - I believe that there is at least a 50/50 chance that Trea Turner breaks camp as the starting SS for Washington. With Espinosa and Drew as his main competition, he shouldn't have to do too much to prove that he's the best option for a team that still believes itself to be a World Series contender. I've seen lots of different reports on Turner's hit tool, but after watching it first-hand numerous times last year I don't see how you could grade it less than average-plus. Since he reached A-ball, last year's .314 at AAA was his lowest AVG at any stop, and even in his MLB cameo he posted a LD rate of 21.4%. He'll hit for a decent average, and he definitely has plus speed. He isn't ever likely to hit for much power, but he could be a prototypical #2 hitter without stretching belief very much at all. If he does make the team right off the bat, 15 steals and a solid average would be a reasonable starting point for expectations.
AROUND THE LEAGUE:
Wei-Yin Chen - Chen's move to the Marlins is yet another case of "it looks really good on paper". Chen has outperformed his peripherals in Baltimore tha past few seasons, leading me (and others) to believe that he's a bit overrated, but one of his biggest weaknesses regardless has been the home run ball. Moving from a top-5 park to a bottom-5 park in HRs can't help but give him a boost, and facing the pitcher a couple times a game is always a plus as well. The Marlins won't be great offensively but I don't think they'll be abysmal either, so a slight improvement on last year's peripherals seems likely, making him a lower-end SP3 in my book. If he continues to outperform his peripherals, there's even a bit of upside from there.
Ian Desmond - Desmond has apparently signed with the Rangers on a 1-year deal today, and obviously the first question is: where will he play? The initial answer appears to be LF, short-circuiting the hopes of Joey Gallo to take the spot this spring with the ongoing injury woes of Josh Hamilton. Hamilton hopes to be back in May, and the plan at that point may be to use Desmond as a super-utility player, although that's a lot of speculation at this point. All told, this may be a positive move for Desmond's value. He's moving from a neutral park to a hitters park in Arlington, good for about a 5% boost to his stat-line in a vacuum. He also figures to pick up, one way or another, some positional flexibility. This is big news for a player that has been on a decidedly negative trend the past few seasons, as a potential return to 20/15 status will allow him to remain a viable commodity in the middle infield. Furthermore, his second half in Washington projected to 28/18 on a full-season basis, giving further fuel for optimism. He needed the right situation for me to be bullish here again, and I think he found it.
Kirk Nieuwenheis - After all these years as a 4A player, Kirk Nieuwenheis is finally going into camp with the inside track on the starting CF job. It's definitely a bit of cherry-picking data here, but in the last 3 seasons combined, Nieuwenheis has hit 34 doubles, 8 triples, and 33 homers over 598 ABs at AAA Las Vegas. Sure, big-time hitters park, and yes, he fanned 155 times. The point is, he has power, something that is further evidenced by a hard contact rate of over 40% in his 271 MLB plate appearances over the last two years. The K rate could be a killer and he's borderline-useless against LHP, but there's certainly enough here to warrant a late look in deeper leagues, especially with his new residence in one of MLB's best-HR parks.
Raisel Iglesias - In case you didn't realize just how good Iglesias was down the stretch last year, he had an xFIP of 2.92 with a WHIP of 0.98 and 10.45 K/9 in the 2nd half. Just 26 years old and supposedly with a greater focus on conditioning this season (something that reduced his effectiveness later in games), Iglesias has clear top-25 SP upside. The homers are a potential pitfall, but his GB% surged to 53% in the second half as well...I have lots of optimism here.
Gerardo Parra - With Parra heading to Colorado, I think it is very likely that he will provide enough value to be a justifiable selection in standard-sized leagues and larger this spring. Judging from his current draft position, I'm probably 10-20% higher on him than than average as far as I can tell. That stands to reason, as he's an OF in his prime with above-average contact rates and speed with average to average-minus power, heading to the best ballpark on the planet for half of his games. Playing every day in that bandbox, I could easily see him putting up 65 XBH, 15 SB, and close to 100 R if he hits toward the top of the lineup, and as such I'd be looking at him as a solid OF5 in 12-team leagues.
Bud Norris - One of the cardinal rules of starting pitchers: moving from the AL to the NL is a major boost to production far more often than it is not, and vice versa. Bud Norris has always been one of those guys that eats innings and gets some K's while generally underwhelming, but he's also always been in the AL until 20 relief appearances with the Padres last year. Throw in the fact that HRs have been an issue and he's finally going to a park that limits them, and you have a slight sleeper situation. The Braves aren't going to be all that good, but I could see Norris winning 10 with a 3.50-3.75 ERA and 7.5-8.5 K/9, something that would be useful in deeper leagues at the back end of a rotation.
Brandon Maurer - If I'm looking for a last arm to fit on my squad this spring, going on nothing but upside, Brandon Maurer is definitely going to make the short list. Armed with a fastball, change, and curve that at various points over the last three years have all been described as filthy, Maurer appears to have a very solid chance to start the year in the Padre rotation. Health and consistency have been perpetual issues for him, but with a swinging strike% of 12.3 out of the bullpen last year, there's plenty of K potential here, and Petco remains one of the better run-suppressing parks in the majors. I wouldn't count on him as one of my 5 to begin the year in any format, but he is a very reasonable bench option in most formats with significant upside.
Aaron Altherr - With the Phillies committing to go younger, Aaron Altherr looks poised to get the lion's share of the time in RF, paired with Odubel Herrera and likely Cody Asche. I'm a bit bearish on Altherr despite some solid strides in contact rate last year. He does have great speed, but he showed quite a bit more power than expected last year. Furthermore, he teed off on hard stuff last year and struggled mightily against offspeed pitches, yet he was thrown fastballs and slider 3/4 of the time. As that balance changes, I would expect the contact rate to slip a bit again. The AVG will likely not be a strength, although with 20/20 potential it's hard to be exceedingly pessimistic. At his current ADP, I think there are many better values out there (Piscotty, Conforto, Buxton, Parra), but there's upside potential here to be sure.
Brett Lawrie - I'm a bit stubborn where Lawrie is concerned, as he really seems to have regressed from age 21-25. Still, with an avg "true" HR distance of almost 406 feet last year combined with a move from a park that suppresses HRs by 20% to one that augments them (White Sox) by 10%, 20 homers certainly seems within reach if he can remain healthy. Lawrie still has a bit of speed as well, and with eligibility at both 2B and 3B, he can be a useful player in most formats this season without much improvement. Throw in the possibility of a return to his older contact rates as well (he is just 26, mind you), and there is a bit to dream on here.
Jake Lamb - Jake Lamb had a disappointing power output in 2015, but there is still reason for optimism for the 25 year old heading into 2016. His batted ball data only showed average distance numbers on his HRs, but the 36% hard contact rate and increased LD% and contact rates are all positive signs. From his minor league track record there appears to be above average power here, and with his biggest weakness (contact rate) showing significant improvement last year there's reason to believe that Lamb could provide above-average production at 3B in 2016, particularly with very little competition in the upper levels of the organization right now.
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