Tampa Bay Rays Storylines:
There's A Snell In The Air - Lefty Blake Snell is going to be the biggest storyline in Rays camp this year as after his dominant 2015 over three minor league levels. Across High-A, AA, and AAA he went 15-4 with a 1.41 ERA and 163 strikeouts in 134 innings. He had an 11.57 K/9 and a 2.64 BB/9 in AAA which was tied for his best K/9 last year and his walk rate was the best of his career (44.1 IP). With just those 44 innings above AA it's very fair to suggest that he needs a little more AAA seasoning, but the Rays historically have been "cautious" with the promotion of their prospects (especially the top ones). Our Fantistics projections tab Snell as the #58 SP this year, with 134 innings pitched (Gives him a May/June-ish callup) and notching 11 wins and maintaining a great K rate with 140 punchouts.
Golden Arch - Chris Archer had a great 2016, even with his second half struggles. We continued to see him increase totals across the board wins, K/9, BB/9, IP, and well.... Losses. After posting a 2.22 BB/9 in the first half of the season it jumped to over 3.5 in the second half and as you may have deduced, more runners on base led to more runs allowed allowing one more run than the first half in over 30 less innings. Archer limited hard contact in the second half though dropping his LD% by 5% and with an increase in FB% his HR/9 was nearly identical. Fangraphs pitch values had Archer's slider as the best slider in the game being 25.4 runs above average among qualified arms. Fantistics slots Archer in at #14 among starters and he's definitely a #1 pitcher even with a very deep crop of arms this year.
SS Battle In The Bay - Former #1 pick Tim Beckham and the "newly" acquired Brad Miller are the two most likely candidates to start the season as the Rays' starting shortstop. However these two choices are well.... Underwhelming. Miller provides a decent amount of pop at shortstop with 21 homers over the last two seasons which is the 13th best among shortstops but did steal 13 bases last season, making him one of 7 shortstops to reach double digits in both categories. Beckham on the other hand hit 9 homers in 83 games which is about 20 over a full season, but there was no way he would hypothetically get these with his 30% K-rate and he was blessed with a 21% HR/FB rate. I think while we know what we get with Miller (16/10 Fantistics projection), he's actually being undervalued right now based on ADP. Right now he's a 30th round pick, with the five players under him in the projections going at least three rounds ahead of him besides Alexi Ramirez.
Atlanta Braves Storylines:
I Don't Know's On Third - If you are looking for a Braves third baseman, you better have some Gatorade on hand because you're going to get a workout scrolling through the Fantistics projections. Our first Braves' 3B option comes in at 32 with Hector Olivera with Adonis Garcia immediately behind him. Olivera was a high profile singing from Cuba by the Dodgers, but was dealt to the Braves last season and hits two homers in his 24 games in the big leagues. While he doesn't walk often, his 13.8% K% is solid enough at the position. Garcia on the other hand came out of nowhere to hit 10 homers in 58 games with a .277/.293/.497 triple slash before tearing the cover off the ball in winter ball. The two are so closely viewed in Fantistics' eyes the two are projected for the same number of homers (12), nearly the same RBI with 55 for Olivera and 53 for Garcia, and three points difference on their averages. If you're forced to draft one I'd chose Olivera because of his potential multiple positional eligibility, but if you are just looking for pure upside I'd rather go with a joey Gallo type who's going three rounds later in Fantistics ADP.
Ender's Game - While Dansby Swanson (rightful so) got most of the publicity from the Braves-D'Backs trade, Ender Enciarte could be a nice value as the Braves' starting centerfielder. In 132 games last season Inciarte stole 21 bags with six homers while hitting .303. His rookie season in 2014 he stoles 19 bases with four homers in 118 games, while hitting .278. The batting average jump is fairly steep and it can be thanked partially to a .019 jump in his BABIP despite his batting average nearly falling, a somewhat remarkable, .050 points against left handed pitching thanks to a 13% increase in soft contact (or 13% decrease in hard contact, whatever suits your fancy). Inciarte was actually a very productive hitter away from Chase field last season with a .282/.317/.399 triple slash and five of his six homes also came on the road. #58 OF by Fantistics' projections.
Grilli or Vizzy? Who Gets the 9th? - Before Coors Field ruined another pitcher, Jason Grilli was actually one of the better relievers in fantasy baseball last season. He was striking out over 12 batters per nine and had notched 24 saves already. Arodys Vizciano, whom the Braves acquired from the Cubs for Tommy La Stella, was also excellent for the Braves and has closer of the future written all over him striking out 9.89 per nine but did walk 3 per nine. Grilli is scheduled to be finished with his rehab and should be able to break camp with the team and if so, he's (with 90%) certainty going to be the closer for Atlanta. However, if Grilli hadn't gotten hurt last year he was going to be dealt at the deadline and the same can almost be assured this season making Vizciano a stash option in deep leagues. Another intriguing arm in the Braves' pen is RHP Shae Simmons, but he'll need a few breaks to get any sort of fantasy relevant innings.
Around the Majors:
Ian Desmond, FA - The latest team rumored to be interested in the free agent is the Rockies, who may need a replacement for Jose Reyes as his domestic abuse case gets sorted out with a possible suspension looming. The move actually makes a bit of sense for both teams as the Rockies first round pick is protected (#4) overall so the qualifying offer doesn't scare them off like it could others and Desmond needs to rebuild some value after a bad 2015. He had double digit homers and steals for the fourth straight year, but both totals were the lowest of that four year stretch and we've also seen his average drop for four straight seasons bottoming out at .233 last year. While not fantasy relevant, his defensive metrics also have dropped for four straight seasons which limits his number of suitors even further. Colorado obviously would provide for the most intrigue at the moment for Desmond offensively as he could likely eclipse the 20 homer plateau again.
Jose Fernandez, Miami Marlins - And the giant wet blanket that is an innings limit was cast over Jose Fernandez today. Based on Matt Harvey's situation last season, we could probably bet on a limit in the 180 innings neighborhood. This impacts Fernandez's value more in points league as compared to ROTO or Head-to-Head categories based on losing that 3.0 points per inning in most leagues. Fernandez is a personal favorite of mine, and Fantistics projects him at 192 innings this season so if you want to look at solely the projections they'll give you a fairly good look at what he could look like this year. Based on his ADP in the middle of the third round, we may see a slight dip in that ADP with this news but I still wouldn't let him slip past the beginning of the fourth. He has as much upside as anyone in baseball and on a per inning basis he could be the best pitcher in fantasy this year.
Justin Verlander, Detroit Tigers - Verlander has already been tabbed as the Tigers Opening Day starter, and without his strong finish to the end of the 2015 season. Over his last four starts he allowed eight runs across 27.2 innings with 29 strikeouts in that span. In his firsts 30 innings of the season he had a horrific 5.34 ERA with a .258/.331/.453 triple slash against him but over his final 103 innings he had just a 2.80 ERA with a .216/.259/.327 average against him. So which Verlander should we expect and draft for in 2016? Fantistics is cautious in his projections keeping in mind his fastball has lost velocity and he was able to limit hard contact last year. His ADP right now is the 13th round and a lot of what you are paying for is the name value at this point.
Yovani Gallardo, FA - Baltimore insists that they are going to sign Gallardo in due time, but there isn't much upside here for a near 30 year old with a declining striking rate and in increasing walk rate. In points leagues you can count on him to be out there every 5th day, but it's the lack of swing and miss stuff that's concerning. His contact rate has been on the rise ever since 2009 and last year he saw a 6% uptick in his contact on pitches out of the zone. Better said: Batters are hitting pitches off him that they aren't even supposed to be able to hit. He has to go to a team with a great defense behind him in order to be on anyone's besides a spot start here and there.
Dexter Fowler, FA - In addition to Gallardo, the Orioles are heavily linked to Fowler as a free agent possibility to reportedly play right field for the team. Fowler mixes a nice blend of power and speed that thus far is being somewhat undervalued early on in the drafting process. He has double digit homers and steals in three of the past four seasons and had the second most steals of his career last year to go along with a career high in homers. Going to Camden Yards to play half his games definitely won't hurt his numbers, so he could very well end up as a solid outfield pick come draft day.
Ken Giles, Houston Astros - A guy I'm higher on than the Fantistics projections is the Astros new closer Ken Giles. Right now Fantistics has him projected as the #18 reliever but I could easily see him as a top 10 option this season. He has a great K/9, even with the decline down to 11.19. The one area of concern though is his walk rate which has always been a problem through the minors. In his rookie year he looked like the net Craig Kimbrel with a 2.17 BB/9, but that jump a full walk up to 3.21 last season. A promising swing rate on him is that batters swung at 7% more pitches in the zone while making less contact on those same pitches. Granted it was only a .4% drop, but hey a drop is a drop. Going from the Phillies to the Astros also might triple his save opportunities.
Matt Harrison, Philadelphia Phillies - Harrison came over to the Phillies in the Cole Hamels trade and in a bad Philly rotation he should have a chance at a spot if he's healthy. However, pitchers and catchers reported to camp today (2/17) and Harrison was not in attendance as he is still recovering from his back injury. The Phillies GM said that they aren't expecting him anytime soon, and are in a "wait-and-see" mode with him. You can table any thoughts about targeting him if for some reason you were.
Hanley Ramirez, Boston Red Sox - Hanley has reported to training camp early and after Dave Dombrowski told him to shed 15-20 pounds this offseason. Ramirez is moving to first base this season so he's going to have OF/1B eligibility very early on which could make him intriguing. He got off to a torrid start with the Red Sox hitting 10 homers before early May, but a shoulder injury completely zapped that ability for what ended up being the remainder of the season. Fantistics has him as the 25th best outfielder this year and he's a player that will either end up a great fantasy play or attempt to singlehandedly ruin your team.
Aaron Judge, New York Yankees - Aaron Judge is an intriguing name to watch this spring for the long term view fantasy owners. However, that long term view could be closer than we think with Greg Bird being lost for the season with his shoulder injury. Judge finished last season in AAA and had eight homers and six steals in 61 games and hitting 12 homers and one steal in 63 AA games. He has some of the best raw power in baseball and he's made his way up the prospect lists, but he's going to start the year in the minors as we only have him projected as a September call-up playing just 20 games. If he tears it up this spring, we'll hear the Yankees fans clamoring for him to come up to the bigs.
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axisroto
Feb 17, 16 at 08:40 PM
Pretty good content-wise, but one good run-through by a competent proof-reader may have prevented my "grammar-nazi hackles" from rising 3 or 4 times while perusing this...