Cincinnati Reds-News and Notes What can we expect from Devin Mesoraco this year? Is he fully healthy? Devin Mesoraco played in just 23 games a year ago and saw just 53 plate appearances. He had surgery on his left hip at the end of June, which in of itself is a worrisome injury for any baseball player. So much of the skills and actions required to perform at a high level, require the use of the hips. Add in the squatting from catching and it becomes a very big concern. He is expected to be ready to go by Opening Day, so that is a good sign. He is one player that you will want to watch and keep an eye on during Spring Training. He is going as the 8th catcher drafted, which is higher than anticipated he would go, considering the injury. He does have top 5 catcher upside if healthy and he does play in a great hitters park for power.
Who will be the closer now that Aroldis Chapman is no longer in town? The Reds look to be leaning towards J.J. Hoover as their closer to open spring. Hoover saw a steep drop in his strikeout rate last year. He posted a 10.77 K/9 in 2014 and followed that up with a disappointing 7.27 K/9 last year. If the strikeout rate doesn't return, Hoover could be out of a job real quick, especially in Great American Ballpark. The top candidate to replace Hoover has to be Tony Cingrani. The Reds seem content on keeping him in the bullpen this year, which is good for his development. He strikes guys out (10.4 K/9), which is what you want from a closer. The only downside is his control (3.9 BB/9) and flyball tendency. The Reds are not going to win very many games so I don't know if speculating on Cingrani at this point is a smart move. However, he is someone to keep an eye on if Hoover falters early.
Who will be protecting Joey Votto in the lineup this year? Will he walk 200+ times? The Reds lineup has a ton of question marks this year outside of Joey Votto. Can Zach Cozart leadoff? Was Brandon Phillips bounce back season real? Is Jay Bruce declining at the age of 28? They are all real questions that we will dig into this pre-season in the future, but they all impact Votto. We know that he won't swing at any pitch outside of the zone, so why would pitchers attack him with no one around him? This could mean that Votto legitimately walks 180+ times. Votto walked 143 times last year in 158 games and he no longer has Todd Frazier behind him. Votto's contact skills are good and he flashed his power last year (29 HR). The power increase was not a result of increased fly balls, but a spike in his HR/FB%, which means it could be fluky. He did pull the ball more, but not not enough to justify the spike in HR/FB%. I would expect Votto's power to regress back to low-to-mid 20's. This coupled with the decrease in counting stats, lowers his rotisserie value. He'll still be extremely valuable in OBP leagues, but his overall value is going to be affected by the quality of the Reds lineup around him.
Toronto Blue Jays-News and Notes Will Drew Storen push Robert Osuna for the closer role in Spring Training? Robert Osuna is penciled in as the closer heading into Spring Training for a club that is supposed to contend, so save opportunities should be plentiful in Toronto. That means it is even more important to choose the right guy when it comes to their save opportunities. Osuna is all of 21 yrs. old, but has the arsenal to be a deadly closer. He has a fastball that sits in the mid 90's. He also has a changeup that had a 16% SwStr and his slider at 25%. Both are elite pitches to put hitters away and I wouldn't be surprised if his K/9 rises above 10.00 this year due to his elite arsenal. He also had an excellent 4.69 K/BB ratio, so all the signs point to him keeping the job unless they move him to the rotation for some odd reason. He did come up as a starter and the Jays back end of the rotation is lacking. This leaves Storen as speculative pick, but he has closing experience and has the peripherals to back it up (10.96 K/9, 4.19 K/BB, and 12% SwStr).
Can Kevin Pillar repeat his breakout 2015 season? Kevin Pillar had an excellent 2015 season in the field and at the plate. Pillar hit .278 with 12 HR and 25 SB. What Pillar is good at is making contact (83%). His HR/FB spiked to 17.9%, which was the reason for his career high in HR's. However, he didn't increase his FB%, which makes him a prime candidate for regression in the power department. He is still going to be extremely valuable due to his speed (20+ SB's) and his run scoring ability in this loaded Jays lineup. He is also going to play everyday due to his plus defense in the outfield. If he somehow works his way up the lineup, his value will increase dramatically.
Who has the head start on the left-field job heading into Spring Training? According to most outlets Michael Saunders is going to get the first crack and I think this would be a mistake for the Jays. Over his career, Saunders has had trouble staying healthy and doesn't have much upside if he is on the field. Realistically his upside is a 10 HR/10 SB season with a low average. That has its place in fantasy for sure, but he doesn't make a ton of contact (career 26% K), which will make it hard for him to make enough of a fantasy impact if he can't stay healthy. His main competition is going to come from youngster Dalton Pompey, who got his shot last year, but struggled. Pompey's upside is his speed. If he could get regular playing time and 500+ PA, he could steal 30+ bases. Currently he does not have a path to playing time, but keep an eye on the situation throughout spring and he could be a source of cheap steals.
Around the League
Justin Verlander (SP-DET) Tigers Manager Brad Ausmus announced that Justin Verlander would be their opening day starter. With the departure of David Price at the trade deadline, Verlander is the most senior member of the rotation and the logical choice. Verlander bounced back last year, but can we expect that trend to continue? Verlander on one hand had a 3.38 ERA, but his xFIP of 4.15 suggests that he is due regression. The good news is that his leading indicators K/BB (3.53) and SwStr% (10%) remain very solid. The only problem is that Verlander gives up a ton of fly balls (46%), which is not ideal. Verlander should have a decent year, but a return to his Cy Young days is out of the question.
Adrian Beltre (3B-TEX) Adrian Beltre dealt with a thumb injury during the beginning of 2015 and rebounded with a big second half. He slashed .318/11/6. Beltre continues to have excellent blend of patience and ability to make contact at the plate. He makes 85% contact and strikes out just 10% of the time, which is well below the league average 20%. This skill set has allowed him to perform at the age of 36. The power has declined and that needs to be factored in, but another year of .285-.290/15/85 would not be out of the question for Beltre.
Luis Severino (SP-NYY) Luis Severino showed flashes of brilliance last year by posting a 2.89 ERA over his first 62.1 IP. He struck out 8.09 K/9 with a 2.55 K/BB ratio. Manager Joe Girardi expects Severino to throw 200+ innings this year, which is what you want to hear as an owner of Severino. Severino really needs to improve upon his command to take the next step forward. He walked 3.18 BB/9, which is not atrocious, but his 1.30 HR/9 shows his lack of command in the zone. There will be bumps along the way, but Severino looks like the real deal.
Vincent Velasquez (SP-PHI) Vincent Velasquez is getting forgotten about in Philadelphia and that is good for you the fantasy owner. He was brought over in the Ken Giles deal and not a lot has been made about him. Velasquez got his first big league innings (55) last year. He posted a 4.37 ERA (4.15 xFIP), which isn't horrible, but it isn't great either. The good news is that he is making the move to the National League, which is very beneficial to pitchers. Not to mention the N.L. East doesn't have the strongest lineups either. The other good news is that he posted a 9.38 K/9, which is really good and shows that he has strikeout stuff. Keep an eye on Velasquez in Spring Training. If he wins a spot in the starting rotation, he is someone worth speculating on.
Pablo Sandoval (3B-BOS) Red Sox Manager John Farrell made the comment that Pablo Sandoval is going to go back to switch hitting this season. Well, at least it's not the traditional Sandoval lost X number ofs lbs this off-season and is in the best shape of his career. However, this is not good news by any stretch of the imagination. Sandoval for his career has a .259 Avg with a very pedestrian .673 OPS against LHP, compared to .299 Avg and .837 OPS against RHP. On top of that Sandoval has only topped 80 RBI's once and never scored more than 80 runs in a season. He is very underwhelming to say the least.
Josh Hamilton (OF-TEX) Josh Hamilton is dealing with soreness in his left knee, which he has had two surgeries this offseason. Hamilton was already injury prone and a troublesome knee is not going to make matters worth. Hamilton's days of fantasy stardom are over and they aren't coming back. Hamilton struggles to make contact (65%) and this is mostly due to his tendency to chase pitches out of the zone (O-swing 39%). Pitchers are going to continue to get him to chase, which is going to affect his overall numbers.
Ian Desmond (SS-FA) Ian Desmond has yet to find a home. He is rumored to be talking to the Rays, White Sox, and Rockies. The Rays are not going to give up the draft pick for him, so that leaves the White Sox and the Rockies as the only potential suitors. Desmond would be an intriguing option in either situation. Both are excellent hitters parks and Desmond is a year removed from three straight 20/20 seasons. It was clear that Desmond was affected by his contract year and that affected him in the field, which then led to his struggles at the plate. In the right situation he can return to being a 15 HR/15 SB guy.
Yovani Gallardo (SP-FA) Yovani Gallardo has been rumored to the Orioles for over a week now. Gallardo at this point in his career is nothing more than a back end of the rotation type of starter. He finished last year with a 3.42 ERA, but his xFIP was 4.31. He struck out less than 6.00 K/9, which is awful. The move to a hitter friendly park and division would not be a good one for Gallardo. Avoid in all formats.
Michael Brantley (OF-CLE) Michael Brantley is recovering from shoulder surgery on his non-throwing shoulder. He has yet to get cleared to swing a bat. This clouds the start of his season. A return to start the year is looking less and less likely at this point. The good news about Brantley is that he kept his power from his breakout 2014 season. He posted a .178 ISO in 14' and .170 last year. His FB% slightly increased, which is a good sign. Brantley is a .300 hitter that should approach 15 HR/15 SB, provided that he doesn't miss too much time to start the year.
Koji Uehara (RP-BOS) Koji Uehara is recovered from surgery on his non-throwing wrist, which he fractured at the end of last season. Uehara is no longer the closer in Boston with the addition of Craig Kimbrel. The Red Sox also brought in Carson Smith. Uehara is entering his age 41 season, which is remarkable and something you need to keep in mind. His fastball velocity dropped down to 87 mph last year, but he still maintained an elite 18% SwStr.
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