Notes from the Grapefruit and Cactus leagues...
With the Brewers in full rebuild mode there are several positions up for grabs that need to be followed over the course of Spring Training. The corner outfield slots, though, have firmed up.
Ryan Braun- OF- MIL- Braun had played RF for the Brewers for the previous two seasons but will move back to LF this year. He rebounded from a disappointing 2014 by getting into the 20/20 club with 25 homers and 24 steals. Braun's effectiveness was greater against LH pitching, with a .317/.407/.550 slash line against them and .275/.340/.482 against RH pitching. This is not unusual for him. One unusual facet about Braun's season is that he hit more than twice as many homers on the road (17) than at hitter-friendly Miller Park (8.) The big question for Braun is how he will have recovered from offseason back surgery. For a 32-year-old power hitter who appears to be in decline that could have a negative effect. Take a look at him in the spring to see if he looks like his decline may have accelerated. Fantistics Projection: .287BA/86R/25HR/85RBI/17SB Rank: 9th OF
Domingo Santana- OF- MIL- Santana saw most of his major league action with the Brewers in CF after coming over via trade from the Astros. However, he is more meant to be a RF, with a strong arm and lacking the speed to be an effective CF. At the plate Santana slugged 8 homers in 187 PAs between Houston and Milwaukee. Unfortunately, Santana also struck out 63 times. The Brewers traded Khris Davis to clear a spot in the outfield for Santana and will be looking for him to develop a more controlled swing while still providing power. He is going to get every chance to learn on the job in the majors.
The Orioles had a disappointing 2015 and several of their prominent players were headed for free agency. Surprisingly during the offseason several of these player opted to return to Baltimore.
Matt Wieters- C- BAL- Wieters opted to become one of the players who made the unprecedented move of accepting qualifying offers to stay with their teams. His last two seasons were impacted by Tommy john surgery and recovery but should be fully healthy for the first time since 2013. The odds are good that he will be back to his customary 20+ homers. In his past two shortened seasons Wieters' LD% jumped and his BABIP was higher than his career norms. If this is a result of some refining of his swing that could also increase his average in 2016. Fantistics Projection: .273BA/65R/18HR/67RBI/0SB Rank: 6th C
Chris Davis- 1B- BAL- After some back and forth drama between Davis and the Orioles including an offer made and withdrawn and Baltimore flirting with Yoenis Cespedes, Davis ended up re-signing for 7 years. With Davis entering his age 30 season this could be his final contract of his career. After a 2014 that saw his average dip below the Mendoza line Davis rebounded with a 47-homer campaign in which he posted a slash line of .262/.361/.562. Staying with Baltimore was a good move for his production as his line at Camden Yards was .283/.376/.636. With 30 games in RF Davis will qualify at a second position this year. 2014 looks like an aberration and Davis will show elite power in 2016. Fantistics Projection: .269BA/91R/44HR/101RBI/2SB Rank: 5th 1B
Random Fantistics Draft Advisory Player Notes:
1B Teixeira, Mark 23% HR/FB rate is considerably higher than his norm and not supported by his 102 BBS. On the other hand his contact rate improved last season, and his .255 BA was probably 10 points below where it should have been. Regardless even with better health, it's going to be hard to surpass last year HRs totals.
1B Cabrera, Miguel Still swinging it like a hitter in his prime. HR totals were of course muted because of injuries, but a return to health should put Cabrera in the 30 HR range once again with a strong BA to boot.
1B Mauer, Joe BA was depressed last year as was his RBI totals. Loss of eligibility at C and lack of power makes him marginally rosterable in most formats.
1B Gonzalez, Adrian One of the most consistent run producers over the last decade. Still producing at a high level with a legit 16% HR/FB rate, which is supported by his ability BBS. His RBI totals were discounted last season, and with a little more support around him he should move back into the triple digit range.
1B Encarnacion, Edwin 20% HR/FB rate was a little higher than norm (18%) for him, last season. However his 107 BBS average on HRs is among the league best. On the down side, he was just about as good as he could be last year, based on the peripherals, so there's little in any upside, with a slight regression likely.
1B Howard, Ryan Batting average was depressed for 2nd straight season, but the shift is reeking havoc on him. His ability to get on base also leaves his Runs Scored at a disadvantage, making him non rosterable in most fantasy formats.
1B Santana, Carlos Was one of the best run producing catchers, but no longer qualifies there. Heavy flyball hitter, hurts his BA, but will produce healthy RBI and RS totals. Upside in HRs as his 12% HR/FB rate could easily be in the 13-14% range.
1B Alvarez, Pedro Improved considerably against LHP in 2015, seeing his SLG against rise from .282 to .433. BA is always a risk here however as his subpar 71% contact rate doesn't leave enough opportunities to get on base.
1B Duda, Lucas Really stepped it up against LHP, his SLG against went from .259 to .573...which was over 100 points better than RHP...anomaly? Additionally his BBS on HRs went up 2 full points!
The Rangers put together a strong run in the last half of the season which resulted in them taking the AL West title. They haven't made many major moves but LF is one area that is up in the air.
Josh Hamilton- OF- TEX- Hamilton was seeking a second opinion about the state of his surgically repaired left knee from an associate of Dr. James Andrews. Hamilton has continued to feel bothered by the knee, which is currently diagnosed as having inflammation in a capsule behind it. He has been able to do baseball activity since reporting early for Spring Training, but this is obviously not good news for the injury plagued outfielder. If he can't play the field his playing time will be drastically cut. Mitch Moreland is entrenched at 1B and Prince Fielder has a solid hold on the DH slot. Hamilton slugged 8 homers in 182 PAs last year so when healthy his power can still manifest itself. Whether he gets a chance to show it will be an important story line in Arizona.
Yu Darvish- P- TEX- Darvish missed all of last year due to Tommy John surgery. He is progressing through rehab with no problems so far. Yesterday Darvish threw 17 pitches from a half- mound, the first time he's thrown from some elevation. He is on track to return in mid-May. This will still offer plenty of time for Darvish to contribute to a fantasy team. His 11.22 K/9 in 3 major league seasons is very attractive, even for a partial season.
Jay Bruce- OF- CIN- Bruce is rumored to be the focus of a 3-way deal between the Reds, Blue Jays, and Angels. Bruce is reported to be landing north of the border. His power rebounded somewhat from the 18 homers he hit in his age-27 season of 2014 to 26 last year but a BABIP of .251 had a big part in his .226 average. A change of scenery could be a help.
Michael Saunders- OF- TOR- Saunders has had 500+ major league appearances only once in a career that held a lot of promise. Last year he only got to the plate 36 times. He is the other notable name in the trade rumors involving Toronto, Cincinnati and the Angels. Saunders would be headed to LA if the rumors are true. He is reportedly healthy early in Spring training but that has been the case before.
Jimmy Rollins- SS- CHA- Rollins signed a minor league deal with an invitation to major league camp with the White Sox. He is expected to challenge Tyler Saladino for the starting SS job but could end up as a utility infielder or primarily a mentor to Saladino. In his lone season with the Dodgers Rollins reached double digits in homers and steals but a BABIP 37 points below his career norm tanked his average to .224. If Rollins wins the SS job he could still end up with double digits in homers and steals and a modest increase in average from 2015.
David Ortiz- DH- BOS- Big Papi arrived for his final Spring Training as a player. With 30+ homers and 100+ RBI in each of the last 3 seasons Ortiz is not just hanging on. He will be a major contributor in his final year.
Victor Martinez- 1B- DET- Martinez reported to Spring Training in the unfamiliar position of not coming in with pitchers and catcher. Even though he hasn't played behind the plate with any regularity for years he still would come in early. After a left knee injury that ruined his 2015 season the pretense isn't even there anymore. A year after slugging a career-high 32 homers Martinez only hit 11. The knee made him especially weak against RH pitching with a slash line of .219/.276/.339. Martinez is hoping to rebound but the wonky knee should be watched closely in the Grapefruit League to see how much recovery has been made.
Jeff Francoeur- OF- ATL- Francoeur signed a minor league contract with an invitation to Spring Training with the Braves. This is a Back to the Future move as Francoeur began his major league career with Atlanta in 2005. He will compete for an OF job but has some stiff competition.
Freddie Freeman- 1B- ATL- The first thing Freemen will do when he reports today is get an exam of his wrist. That's the right wrist that bothered him for a good part of the 2015 season. The Braves are going to be conservative about how they will push Freeman in workouts during the early part of camp, at least.
Masahiro Tanaka- P- NYA- Tanaka threw 31 pitches from a mound yesterday and reported no discomfort in his elbow. He is not saying that he is definitely going to be ready by Opening Day but yesterday's session was progress.
Jeremy Guthrie- P- TEX- Guthrie was signed to a minor league contract this weekend and is in big league camp as one of the candidates for the 5th starter for the Rangers. With the 5.95 ERA and 5.62 FIP he posted for the Royals last year Guthrie would have to be considered a long shot for the spot.
Aroldis Chapman- RP- NYA- Chapman had an excused absence from camp yesterday, possibly due to the investigation of domestic violence charges being done by MLB. Commissioner Rob Manfred has indicating that he will be making a ruling soon. Chapman has said that he will appeal any suspension handed down so his Yankee debut may or may not be delayed.
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