Pittsburgh Pirates Spring Storylines:
GP Are You With Me?
Gregory Polanco is poised for a breakout season, and as the 96th player off the board on AVG in the NFBC so far, we see significant value here. His 2015 .256/.320/.381 line with only 9 homers was disappointing, but a look beneath the surface suggests we have movement in the right direction. His hard hit rate spiked to a solid 30% and his contact rate jumped to 81%. And even though he posted a meager 6% HR/FB rate, his BBS supports a rate over the 10% league average mark. A youngster who is learning to make more contact and hit the ball with more authority is what we have here. As with most young lefties, the next frontier is hitting same-siders, as Polanco posted a .528 OPS against them in 2015. Keep an eye on his progression with that, and with his health (knee) this spring. Few outfielders have his 20/30 potential.
MmmmmBOP! Hanson Looks Poised to Arrive in Pittburgh
Since his breakout 2012 season at High-A when he posted a .909 OPS, stole 35 bases, and hit 16 homers, Alen Hanson has struggled with his development. The contact and the power have been inconsistent, and his defense has prompted a shift to second base. However, the tools are undeniable, and his best is his speed (he stole 35 bases yet again last year, this time at AAA), which will play in the fantasy game. With Jung Ho Kang likely out until late-April/early-May, look for the Pirates to give Hanson every chance to win the 2B job. While Hanson may lose AB's upon Kang's return, I could see him earning significant AB's if he shows the glove is ready.
For Whom Josh Bell Tolls?
It may toll for thee, John Jaso and Mike Morse. With the Pirates slated to begin the year with the Jaso/Morse platoon at 1B, Josh Bell has a chance to earn a promotion in mid-May/early June with a hot start in the minors. GM Neil Huntington told the Pittsburgh Tribune Review he won't put a time table on Bell's promotion, "but there's a lot of good things happening with Josh." Bell, whom the Pirates drafted in the second round in 2011, walked 65 times and struck out 65 times in 131 games across AA and AAA and hit 40 extra base hits along the way. While only 7 of those were homers, scouts see 15-20 home run power in that switch-hitting bat with lots of hard contact and an easy .300 AVG. The Pirates have been methodical with his development--as they are with most prospects--but, look for the training wheels to come off and lead him to ride into PNC in the first half.
Will Pittsburgh Be Nice to Niese?
Ray Searage has yet another reclamation project in his hands with Jonathan Niese, who is slotted in the middle of the Pirates rotation after coming over in the Neil Walker trade. This is just the kind of pitcher who could thrive in Pittsburgh, as his 55% groundball rate and pitch to contact approach will work well in PNC. He'll especially benefit from the park's suppression of right-handed power, and with positive regression due with the 14% HR/FB rate last season, things are looking up for Niese. However, his 15% K-rate--backed by an ugly 6% swinging strike rate--leaves something to be desired to fantasy purposes. Even if Searage works his magic yet again, he's likely to only be an asset at a 6th starter in 15+ team mixed leagues/NL-only formats.
Miami Marlins Spring Storylines:
Edwin Jackson? Really?
While the Miami Marlins signed Edwin Jackson as a potential #5 starter, they have a hidden gem in Adam Conley, who may start the season at AAA. Conley was sneaky good last season, posting a 21% K-rate, 7% BB-rate, and a measly 21% hard contact rate. He brings a quality three-pitch mix from the left side that produced a 10% swinging strike rate. Conley, a 2nd round pick by the Marlins in 2011, should see the rotation early in the season, and makes for a great high-upside pick in the later rounds in mixed leagues.
Marcell Ozuna Will Be a Wonderful Wizard of the Long Ball
Marcell Ozuna crushes baseballs. He averaged 411 feet on his homers with a batted ball speed of 105 MPH, both elite numbers that support a HR/FB rate well above the 9% mark he posted in 2015. His hard contact rate of 34%, to go along with his above average groundball rate and opposite field rate, support a BABIP in the .330 range. With the fences (and a new regime) coming in, look for Ozuna, who is going as the 59th OF in NFBC drafts, to be one of THE draftday steals of 2016.
Not a Boar
Speaking of filthy power, Justin Boar posted a 105 MPH SBS mark with an AVG distance of 407 feet on his homers, both marks that put him near the elite. While he is an extreme pull-hitter with an above-average groundball rate--numbers that suggest lower than average BABIPS are likely--20+ homers with a .250 AVG at the corner infield position is mixed-league viable. The fact that he hit 0 homers with a .573 OPS against lefties limits his upside (and will cut into playing time), but if you're in a league with daily transactions, handcuffing with Chris Johnson could pay dividends.
Get Carter (Capps)
While his delivery may be a crime, as long as MLB continues to allow it, sign me up for Carter Capps as another one of THE draftday steals of 2016. As Michael Waldo highlighted yesterday, Capps was absolutely filthy in 2015, posting historic numbers across the board (49% K-rate with a 5% BB-rate, a 25% swinging-strike rate, and a 42% chase-rate!). While his 98 MPH is nasty on its own, according to Brooks Baseball, hitters managed to hit .083 and slug .167 off of his curve. While Ramos was effective last season, he did blow 6 saves and can experience bouts of wildness. The competition is wide open for now, but provided Capps can stay healthy, look for him to win the job out of Spring Training.
Philadelphia Phillies Spring Storylines:
Peter Bourjos? Really?
While Peter Bourjos has the inside track to start in the mess of an OF in Philly, don't forget about Darnell Sweeney. Acquired from the Dodgers late last season, his first audition didn't go very well, as he posted a .176/.286/.353 line in 37 games. However, much of that is attributable to a .218 BABIP despite a 29% hard hit rate. Sweeney will need to make more consistent contact and hit the ball more on the ground to take advantage of his speed, but he has shown plenty of upside in the minors. He can take a walk and steal plenty of bases--watch him this Spring as a potential steal in the final few rounds in drafts. And with the other OF spots open, keep an eye on Nick Williams and Roman Quinn, guys we will profile more as Spring progresses.
Freddy Galvis? Really?
JP Crawford struck out only 45 times in 86 AA games last season, one in which he played as a 20-year old. Impressive as that is, he actually walked 49 times. Add in his above-average speed, developing power, and plus contact skills, and we have a potential top-3 shortstop in his prime. The issue, of course, is that the Phillies are in a rebuilding phase and have little incentive to call him up anytime before mid-June. While Corey Seager and Carlos Correa are stealing the headlines--and for good reasons--Crawford has the upside to join them in 2017. As for 2016, he makes for a high-upside pick late in drafts in shallow leagues; but since Freddy Galvis will keep the seat warm for a few months, be careful of reaching in deeper leagues.
Frank About Franco
With a 104 MPH on his batted ball speed, Maikel Franco and his 16% HR/FB rate are legit. He showed significant progress in his development by cutting down his K's (15% mark) and increasing his walks (8%). The only question for me with Franco will be the batting average, as his hard-hit rate was average and he showed extreme pull tendencies in 2015. We envision 24 homers this season with the potential for more hitting in the middle of the lineup. He makes for a solid value play as the 10th 3B off the board in NFBC drafts, but just be careful not to extrapolate his numbers to a full season just yet...still lots of development to go.
Bullpen Is A Mess I Must Confess
Who will close for the Phillies in 2016? David Hernandez looks to be the slight favorite heading into Spring Training, but the Phillies are bringing in Andrew Bailey and Ernesto Frieri on minor league deals. Then there are the youngsters. One to watch for this spring is Luis Garcia, who came within 1 percent of reaching the "Kevin Brown" line of 75% of outs recorded with K's and GB's. He posted a 12% swinging strike rate and induced plenty of weak contact. The only knock against Garcia is the control (12% BB-rate), which is especially pronounced against lefties. Watch his confidence against them this Spring--if he's attacking them with more changeups, he could be the guy to eventually emerge. Of course, he'll likely be keeping the seat warm for prospect Jimmy Cordero, a guy we'll dig into later this Spring.
Around the League
Mike Moustakas (3B-KC): The Royals signed Mike Moustakas to a 2-year deal, buying out his arbitration years after his breakout season in 2015. Where is the love in the fantasy world? The Moose deserves it and is poised to continue to turn himself into the player we all thought he would be back in 2007. He posted a 31% hard hit rate again last season, and finally saw his HR/FB rate spike over 10% thanks to an increase of 13 feet on his average distance number. And what was undergirding it all? His MASSIVE improvement against lefties. Moose went from almost falling into a platoon in 2014 to posting a HIGHER OPS against them (.823) than against righties (.814). As the number 13 3rd baseman off the board so far in NFBC drafts, I see the Moose as one of those guys who can carry your team to a title.
Rymer Liriano (OF-MIL): According to an article in the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel, the Brewers are looking to shift Ryan Braun to left and Domingo Santana to right, leaving CF wide open with the recent trade of Khris Davis to the Athletics. While youngsters Michael Reed and Keon Broxton are names to watch this Spring, look for the recently acquired Rymer Liriano to grab the inside track. Liriano has battled injuries and inconsistencies throughout his MiLB career, but the Padres gave up on a lot of talent. He posted a .843 OPS with 14 homers and 18 steals in AAA last season, numbers not too dissimilar from those at other levels/environments. With OF a mess in the fantasy game (especially in 5 OF leagues), Rymer could be your guy in the later rounds.
Jumbo Diaz (RP-CIN): Keeping track of open competitions for closer is a huge part of the fantasy game. One such opening has appeared in Cincinnati, where recent chatter has J.J. Hoover, Tony Cingrani, and Jumbo Diaz as the leading candidates for the coveted gig. While Hoover, who struggled down the stretch in 2015, is going off the board earlier in drafts, look for Diaz as a huge sleeper (literally). Diaz posted a 27% K-rate, a 14% swinging strike rate, and showed improved control after losing significant weight last season.
Melvin Upton (OF-SD): The man formerly known as B.J. seems to be the forgotten man in leagues with 5 OF slots and I'm not sure why. Upton, who admitted the pressure of validating the big contract got to him in Atlanta, went back to being himself late last season, especially his pull-happy approach. The result? His linedrive rate skyrocketed to 24%. He hit 5 homers and stole 9 bases in half a season of work--with a starting job all but his this Spring, I have no issue extrapolating those to a full season. As the 115th OF off the board in the NFBC, he could make for a game saver at the end of drafts.
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