So much of fantasy baseball success involves limiting risk. All of us will take chances on players from time to time, but you want to make sure that your roster enters a season with a manageable amount of risk. Drafting a half-dozen hitters who struggle to reach 125 games is too risky. Selecting three starting pitchers who are under the age of 24 is too risky. And, grabbing a player with legal, availability, performance, attitude, and age concerns? ... that's downright foolish!
Which leads us to Colorado Rockies' shortstop, Jose Reyes.
The vet is currently staring at an early-April court date (Opening Day, in fact) in Hawaii, stemming from a Halloween incident with his wife. Since that point, we've been left to guess how Major League Baseball's new domestic violence policy would affect his status for 2016. Earlier in the week, MLB Commissioner, Rob Manfred, cleared away a small portion of the fog. Reyes was given an indefinite (paid) suspension and, for now, will not be a part of Colorado's spring camp at Salt River Fields.
As understood by many (and, do understand ... we're covering new ground here since MLB has not provided any rigid standards, nor defined layouts, for their new policy), the Commissioners' Office has invoked an 'exceptional circumstances' clause in the agreement and it appears that they will let the court proceedings play out before leveling a final decision on Reyes' status.
All of this and more, makes Reyes a guy that I will not even consider heading into upcoming drafts. Let's review all the many problems ...
Legal
Things sound fairly ugly on this front. Maui police charged Reyes with domestic violence abuse after a nearly two week investigation that left him accused of beating and shoving his wife in a Hawaii hotel room. The police report details that Reyes pulled his wife off the bed, pushed her, grabbed her throat, and shoved her into a sliding door that led to the balcony. Like I said, it doesn't look good here.
Future Availability
Even if Reyes finds a non-jail solution (admittedly, and perhaps sadly, that's likely), what will MLB do? As we've seen with pro football, fans and non-fans have screamed and complained about the seemingly light punishments handed out by NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell. With MLB just beginning to delve into the domestic violence suspension game, they're likely to come out heavy-handed to avoid any further embarrassment or unwanted attention.
Therefore, a fairly lengthy suspension (even without a conviction) could greet Reyes when he leaves the courtroom. Even a month-long sit-down doesn't sound out of the question. Beyond that, will Colorado even want the high-priced veteran back? The franchise has been both celebrated and chastised in recent years for their ownership-backed search for 'good guy's off-the-field.' Somehow, Reyes' current predicament doesn't square with such goals.
Now, let's move onto the things that should concern you even without the looming legal clouds ...
Performance
Reyes has seen a steady deterioration in his marks for the past few years. His .274 average (between Toronto and Colorado) was the lowest full-season mark for him since his first full year, way back in 2002. His power is receding. His .378 slugging mark of '15 was the lowest of his 13 year career. And, need I remind you, he played nearly 120 games in the hitters' havens of Toronto and Denver?? He's steadily lost 115 points of slugging percentage since posting a .493 mark in 2011. There's still more. He doesn't hit home runs anymore (1 for every 60+ ABs over the past 5 years!), he will never drive in runs (topping 60 once since '08), and he was last among all qualifying hitters in average fly ball distance. So, now you're saying, 'But, his speed, Kyle!' Well, it's still good and if he plays 140 games (see below), he could grab 30+ thefts ... but, how many guys nearing 33 actually do that? Very, very few.
Attitude
From the moment Reyes left the contending Blue Jays and landed with the forever-struggling, Rockies, he wasn't a pleasant man to be around. Reports of his locker room sulking came early and often. I don't necessarily blame the guy. It's tough to go to a franchise that has been 'rebuilding' for a half-decade. Especially, when you have a half-decade, at most, left in your tank.
The simple solution for all parties would be a trade, but that's going to be difficult. Even if you overlook the off-the-field situation ... even if you overlook the shrinking offensive numbers ... Even if you overlook his sloppy glove work (a Field Runs Above Average that has been a collective -11 in the past four years) ... even if you overlook his pouting ... you're still left with $44-million owed (plus, a $4-million buyout for '18) left on the final two guaranteed years of his massive contract. Good luck getting a worthwhile deal done with all of that hanging in the balance.
Age
I brought this up earlier, but Reyes is at a point where 'speed' guys just stop doing what they've done. In years' past, the raw speed he was born with carried the day. Lately, his overall instincts and experience have propelled him. Now, you have to wonder how much longer he can keep up his part of the bargain. Overall, stolen bases are down across the entire baseball landscape and Reyes won't be turning that trend around this year.
Also, we all know that as the body ages, it also struggles to stay as healthy or to recover as well. Reyes was often a member of the walking wounded even in his 20s and that should only get worse into his mid-30s. After all, he has missed at least 35 games in three of the past five years. That's bad news when you're 28, let alone, 32.
Conclusion
Just don't do it. I know that there's always going to be that spot where you claim, 'The upside is just too good to pass on.' But, I would argue that at that point - with ALL of the issues facing Reyes - there's going to often be a better 'upside' pick no matter where you're at in your draft. Heck, take a shot on Jon Singleton hitting 30 ... or, maybe Yoan Moncada will get called up by June 1 ... or, perhaps Jedd Gyorko (shortstop eligibility) falls into 20 homers. There's a 15% chance that Reyes pays off with a very good season. There's also a 15% chance that he's 'Just OK,' for those occasions when he gets on the field. Then, there's a 70% chance that he comes up short and fails. Let Reyes be someone else's problem.
(Note: A 'No' vote on Reyes is not a 'Yes' vote for any of the Colorado fill-in's, either. Seriously, Daniel Descalso, is the leader to fill-in if Reyes is unavailable. Others like Trevor Story, Christhian Adames, and Rafael Ynoa, are fully unknown, unproven, and mostly unready.)
You can hear Kyle each weeknight on 'The SiriusXM Fantasy Drive' from 7-10 ET, Sirius 210, XM 87.
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