A Look at ADP by Kyle Elfrink

Average Draft Position (ADP) should never be the end-all, be-all when it comes to mapping out your draft. Still, it serves as a top signifier of 'the way the wind is blowing,' as we get closer to Opening Day. Let's be honest, that magazine you bought on the way to the draft room was put together back in late-December. It's missing free agents who signed late. It's missing rookies who've emerged in camp. It's missing all the injuries that have piled up over three months. In other words, it's missing a load of the most important things!

My goal over the next six weeks is to follow the trends and movements, to tell you why a certain player is going up or down, and to give you my take on whether or not it's warranted. Our numbers will come from the National Fantasy Baseball Championship, courtesy of their director, Greg Ambrosious.

If there are specific players or positions you would like me to discuss over the coming weeks, just let me know in the 'Comments' section below. At the end of this week's column, I'll respond to a couple of questions that were posed from readers of last week's column.

• Bruce NEARLY Goes North ... Twice

As of this writing, the steamy rumors of Jay Bruce-to-Toronto have cooled. A possible three-way deal involving Cincinnati, Toronto, and the LA Angels, ran into some medical issues (not involving Bruce). For now, the slugger remains a Red, but you can bet the rebuilding franchise is still on the hunt for a way to make a move. What caught my eye most about this now-dead flip is how the move could have sent his ADP northward, as well.

Currently, Bruce is sitting with an ADP of #181 overall and #48 among OF's. That is the lowest he's been in about five years and it's warranted because of his slide over the past two seasons. Sure, the homers and RBIs are still there (44 shots, plus 153 driven in for '14-'15), but his slash marks have crashed (.222/.288/.406 from '14-'15 vs. .257/.330/.482 from '08-'13).

If Bruce had (or, eventually does) landed north of the border, I would nearly guarantee that he would become a top-36 OF ... he'd get an ADP lift of about 4-5 rounds. So, much of this would have little to do with the actual player. After all, the talent would be the same in Toronto as it would in Cincinnati. And, even the ballpark argument wouldn't carry much weight. Over the past three seasons, the Rogers Centre in Toronto has a Runs/LH park factor of 110. Bruce's Great American Ballpark has a mark of 108 in that category. When it comes to HR/LH, Toronto's is at 114 and Cincinnati is at ... 114. In effect, both yards equally help lefties like Bruce.

Yet, I know that the vibe on Bruce would have totally changed if this trade had happened. Drafters fall in love with story lines. Trades, free agency, out-of-nowhere no-hitters, hitting for cycles, etc. ... all of these items have an immense effect on perceptions surrounding players. For fantasy players, the Blue Jays are a high-flying offense with power-galore and a lineup stacked with excitement. Cincy is the polar opposite. They're in sell-off mode, they're likely due 90 losses, and even a great fantasy asset like, Joey Votto, struggles to overcome the perceptions.

There's another argument the Bruce-in-Toronto lovers would propose ... the (false) idea of 'lineup protection.' Many, who feature brain-power beyond my reach, have crunched all the numbers and found that there's little proof that such a much-referenced refrain even exists. And, even if you do refuse those studies, do you really think Bruce would be better served batting 6th or 7th in Toronto's lineup than batting 4th in Cincinnati's?

There is still a shot of Bruce ending up with a new uniform for the start of 2016. Even if that new spot is not Toronto, Bruce's ADP is likely to get a boost within his position. Don't get carried away with the narrative. Bruce is the same player no matter where he ends up ... good power, a threat for 90 RBIs, and a flat-lined batting average.

• If You Can Squat, We Can Make You Rise

Let's stay in the Queen City ...

Don't worry. Those are two words that we here time and time again throughout the months of February and March. Tweaked back? Don't worry. Missed a throwing session? Don't worry. Taking a little time off because of a minor issue? You guessed it. Don't worry. At some point, I would almost guarantee that you will hear those two words associated with Devin Mesoraco.

The Reds' catcher is truly one of the best power-hitters at his position. Yet, that power is very difficult to count on leading in to 2016. After all, this is a catcher that is coming off of hip surgery. There are few injuries out there that you should fear more for a guy who squats for a living.

2015 was an eternal waste for the Reds 27-year old. Frankly, he never even got a chance to follow-up on his break-out 2014 (25 HRs and 80 RBIs), as he came up lame in the first week of April. Cincinnati and Mesoraco gave us a good three months of the 'Don't Worry'-attitude, but that was nothing more than wasted hope.

Mesoraco's (ADP #155, #7 among C's) status heading into camp is said to be on good footing, but can we really tell? We would all love to see him play four games a week down in Arizona, handling seven innings per start ... but, that just isn't going to happen. Instead, you'll see him for three or four innings, starting on a Tuesday, taking off on a Wednesday, and then coming back for a light cameo on a Thursday. In other words, evidence that he's feeling 100% and is ready for the season-long grind is not going to come out of Arizona.

That uncertainty makes Mesoraco a giant risk as your top catcher heading into the new season. Personally, if Mesoraco sits out for a few days (with the expected 'Don't Worry,' from the Reds' brass, of course!), he's outside my top-15 at the position. The burn factor is much too high. His ceiling is top-5, but his floor is outside the top-30. He's the prototypical 'Massive Risk/Massive Reward' selection. I'm totally fine with him as my #2 at the catcher spot, but I'd only go with him as my top guy if we see him playing consistently, if we see him handling a few games with five innings behind the dish, and if we're seeing him drive the baseball. Remember, Brandon Moss? He's a bigger power hitter than Mesoraco, but he never looked right or felt right for all of 2015 after offseason hip surgery. It's a dangerous issue for a player ... especially when the player in question must handle a position that could aggravate the issue.

• The Eternal Negotiation

Maybe the printer is broken. Maybe the ink pens have all run dry. Oh, wait, now the always-circumspect Orioles have a hold-up with the medical files! For whatever reason, it has taken Baltimore and pitcher Yovani Gallardo (ADP #391, #110 among SP's), about three weeks to get a deal together.

When/if, he officially signs ... Gallardo used to be a force on the hill with solid marks across the table. But, nowadays, you're looking an exceedingly average fantasy option. Just take a look at that awful K/9 last year of 5.9! During his heydays in Milwaukee, Gallardo would regularly post a number well-above 9.0.

He's a necessary option for the O's (Gallardo's career ERA of 3.66 is a vast upgrade on the collective 4.53 ERA posted by Baltimore starters last year), but he's just another guy in fantasy circles. Now, that he finally has a home for '16, you'll see a slight uptick in his ADP, maybe into the top 100 among SPs, but he's little more than an in-season streaming option and a late-round flier for pitching depth at the draft table.

• Positional Breakdown

For those who are just jumping into the fray, here's a look at a positional break-down of the current ADP marks. It's one thing to know when the big names are going off the board, but you should also pay special attention to when the 'starters' are gone at each position. For purposes of simplicity, we'll keep this to what many would term as 'starters' for a typical 12-team league (i.e., two catchers, five outfielders, six starting pitchers, etc.). Note, that for positions such as 1B or 2B, you should understand that many players from those positions will be selected as a CI or a MI, thus, chipping away even more at a positions' depth. Here's a general look of things ...

o Catcher - First off the board - Buster Posey (ADP #21); Last starter off the board - Jason Castro (ADP #321)

o 1st Base - First off the board - Paul Goldschmidt (ADP #2); Last starter off the board - Albert Pujols (ADP #93)

o 2nd Base - First off the board - Jose Altuve (ADP #11); Last starter off the board - Daniel Murphy (ADP #166)

o 3rd Base - First off the board - Josh Donaldson (ADP #5); Last starter off the board - Matt Duffy (ADP #143)

o Shortstop - First off the board - Carlos Correa (ADP #7); Last starter off the board - Jhonny Peralta (ADP #240)

o Outfield - First off the board - Mike Trout (ADP #1); Last starter off the board - Steven Souza (ADP #242)

o Starting Pitcher - First off the board - Clayton Kershaw (ADP #4); Last starter off the board - Matt Moore (ADP #272)

o Relief Pitcher - First off the board - Wade Davis (ADP #65); Last starter off the board - Jeremy Jeffress (ADP #314)

• You Asked, I Respond

A pair of readers followed-up with some queries at the end of last week's column. I always welcome the interaction and will do my best to respond in the following week's write-up.

Josh wanted to know if last season offered any warning signs about Chris Sale (ADP #26, #4 among SP's). Sure, he had some rough outings, but that's the case with 99% of the league. Sale is absolutely a top-10 pitching option. He will always register fears with his motion, but at this point, he's no bigger a risk than any other so-called, fantasy ace. In some aspects, the lefty was more dominant than ever before. His K/9 led baseball at 11.8, his BB/9 got back under 2 (these are the two most critical numbers for an SP), and even his FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) led the AL at 2.73. He may not near 18 wins, but Sale is still a ratio king heading into the year.

The same outlook doesn't work for Ryan Braun (ADP #44, #14 among OF's), who Steve was wondering about. As he returns to play following concerning back issues (offseason surgery), I think he's getting over-drafted. Can he continue to tough it out every year? His thumb has been barking for multiple years and back injuries are a killer once you reach your 30s (Braun just turned 32). Braun will be a solid option when he's on the field this year, but I really do believe he may struggle to play 130 games for a team that is going nowhere. Need I remind you that the Brewers are on the hook for nearly $100-million over the next five campaigns? For a team that is rebuilding, it's more important to take care of Braun now, so that he's able to help three years down the road when the team should be more competitive. I think they will handle him with kids' gloves in the latter-half of this year.

You can hear Kyle each weeknight on 'The SiriusXM Fantasy Drive' from 7-10 ET, Sirius 210, XM 87.

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