A Look at ADP by Kyle Elfrink

Average Draft Position (ADP) should never be the end-all, be-all when it comes to mapping out your draft. Still, it serves as a top signifier of 'the way the wind is blowing,' as we get closer to Opening Day. Let's be honest, that magazine you bought on the way to the draft room was put together back in late-December. It's missing free agents who signed late. It's missing rookies who've emerged in camp. It's missing all the injuries that have piled up over three months. In other words, it's missing a load of the most important things!

My goal over the next seven weeks is to follow the trends and movements, to tell you why a certain player is going up or down, and to give you my take on whether or not it's warranted. Our numbers will come from the National Fantasy Baseball Championship, courtesy of their director, Greg Ambrosious.

If there are specific players or positions you would like me to discuss over the coming weeks, just let me know in the 'Comments' section at the end of each column.

In our first look at the numbers of 2016, we'll focus on a half-dozen of the over-arching draft story lines that are making waves in draft rooms ...

• Let's Join the Crowd and Over-Emphasize the Top

Without fail, 80+% of the preseason discussion seems to revolve around the first couple of rounds. Frankly, there's a lot more to your draft prep.

Understand that this is not fantasy football. Instead, of needing just a handful of good and healthy players, you're trying to build a team that needs contributions from 20 or more different players. That's the 1st-grade math. Here's the 5th-grade math ... over the past dozen seasons, just over 30% of the top 15 (according to ADP) actually ended up among the top 15 fantasy performers at years' end. In effect, there are 5 'hits' and 10 'misses' in the first 15 picks every spring.

Yet, still, all anyone walks to talk up is the upper-end of the totem pole. So, for just this week, here's what the crowd is currently saying ...

In some order, Mike Trout, Bryce Harper, and Paul Goldschmidt, are going off in the top 3 spots. Clayton Kershaw is most often 4th, but has been known to sneak into the top 3. After that, it's a wild west for the next 11 picks. The order will be flipped and flopped, sliced and diced, crushed and minced, but the names will mostly be the same ... Josh Donaldson, Carlos Correa, Nolan Arenado, Manny Machado, Giancarlo Stanton, Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, Jose Altuve, Andrew McCutchen, and Miguel Cabrera. Players like Max Scherzer, A.J. Pollock, and Edwin Encarnacion, sneak in and out of the top 15.

If you cornered me and said, 'So, since history says that only five of those 15 names will end up in the top 15 ... Which five are they, Kyle?' ... I'd go with Goldschmidt, Trout, Kershaw, Correa, and Donaldson.

• A World with 20 Fantasy Aces?

For nearly five seasons now, Kershaw has been a true force of nature. His run of success has been matched only by the true, historical greats of the game. The numbers are startling. He sports an 88-33 record, a cumulative 2.11 ERA, a superior 0.93 WHIP, alongside 1,249 strikeouts in just 1,128 innings. It's amazing! Those numbers also make it extremely easy to call him the #1 SP in fantasy baseball. In fact, there's little debate from anyone on that statement.

But, Kershaw is just the (very high) tip of a growing iceberg of pitching. According to the current ADP numbers, 18 of the first 50 picks are starting pitchers. That development is just a continuation of what we saw in 2015, 2014, and 2013. It's only growing.

I've always been a 'wait on pitching' kind of guy. But, even if I want to wait, I don't know if I can anymore. In nearly every draft that you'll participate in, I would wager that at least half (and, very likely, more) of your competitor's will go with a pair of pitcher's in the first five rounds. It's always a goal to stick to your pre-draft plan, but you cannot ignore what's happening in the draft. Often, you have to scrap a plan or adjust your preference because of what is happening with all the other picks being made. This year, in a great many drafts (but, not all), you will be forced to select a SP in the first five rounds. That should get you one of those first 18 names.

If you are in, say, a 12-team league and your 'fantasy ace' is Jon Lester (ADP #62), Marcus Stroman (ADP #98), or Tyson Ross (ADP #97), you've waited too long.

• Where the Talent (Short)Stops

If you're a fantasy player who punts a position, the pool of shortstops is just the place for you. There are some truly wild ADP numbers at this position ...

o The top name (Correa, ADP #7) and the fifth name (Francisco Lindor, ADP #64) have both played less than 100 career games

o The second name (Troy Tulowitzki, ADP #49) hasn't even averaged 100 games played in the past four years.

o The third name (Corey Seager, ADP #57) doesn't even have 100 MLB at-bats

o The sixth name (Ian Desmond, ADP #116) doesn't have a team, right now

o The seventh name (Jose Reyes, ADP #142) is facing a possible suspension (see below for more)

And, without boring you, the talent and the fantasy numbers beyond even those names is weak, lacking, and thin. It's really just an awful position in 2016. Unless you're truly fired up about one of the top, young names, you might as well just wait until a dozen guys have been selected. So many of the names outside the top 8 at shortstop have very similar fantasy profiles.

• Rookie Repeat?

The 2015 rookie class is already earning whispers in hushed tones. The amount of talent, alongside immediate success, from those first-year players has earned some early comparisons to some the all-time great freshmen classes. But, this year figures to be different.

Seager is earning raves from most drafters. After less than a month of games, he's landed inside the top 60 as we arrive for spring camps. Kyle Schwarber has a bit more experience and comes in with an (inflated) ADP #30. After those pair, the rookie selections thin and the expectations subside, as well.

In effect, many of the 'best prospects' in baseball, are stuck in situations where they're being protected, they don't have a big league opening, or they just need more seasoning. Lucas Giolito (ADP #333) is the considered the top arm in the minors, but doesn't have a slot in the current Washington rotation. Julio Urias (ADP #421) has a similar issue with Los Angeles and is also just 19. Hitters like Byron Buxton (ADP #172) and Joey Gallo (ADP #341) showed too many pockmarks in their initial go-around, thus tempering the excitement.

There will be some successful rookies this season, but as of now, fantasy players are not investing in them unless their name is 'Seager' or 'Schwarber.'

• Fear of the Courts, the Cuffs, and the Commish

There's a hammer to drop in the coming weeks and it has nothing to do with a 4th PED violation by Jenrry Mejia! Instead, high-end possibilities such as Aroldis Chapman (ADP #67) and Reyes, could be hit with MLB-mandated suspensions for some off-the-field, legal issues involving domestic violence. Even if legal charges are not pressed (officials have already passed on charging Chapman), the Commissioner's Office could still institute their own sit-downs for the two players.

As we know, the NFL has struggled with this issue and has received loads of criticism for some of their decisions and suspensions. There's some thought of 'over-doing it,' if you will, and making sure any suspension is hefty enough to avoid public scorn and dispute. Reports from about a month ago indicated that punishments could be levied by March 1, but there has been little movement, as yet. Still, if either Chapman or Reyes, receives a punishment nearing a month (it's possible), you will see their ADP's crash. With that in mind and until we hear from the league, there is still risk associated with their selection.

• Wake Me Up on 'The Sleepers'

Isn't this what everyone wants?! The eternal search for 'undervalued sleepers' continues into a new season. The names always change, but the thirst is never quenched. Here are just a few names (outside the top 200) that stand out to me ...

o Will Myers (ADP #203)

o Mike Fiers (ADP #208)

o Marcus Semien (ADP #247)

o Andrew Cashner (ADP #274)

o Daniel Norris (ADP of #299)

You can hear Kyle each weeknight on 'The SiriusXM Fantasy Drive' from 7-10 ET, Sirius 210, XM 87.

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