The best teacher is history and that certainly applies to the world of fantasy baseball. Sure, the game may become power-heavy, pitching-heavy, or extra-good at a particular position, but many of the strategies that worked in the 90s, still apply to the 10s.
And, as we wind down the season here on 'Waiver Targets,' I'll start to take a look back at my own history, if you will ... simply put, where was I correct this season and where was I (dreadfully, completely, utterly, incredibly, wholly, doubtless) wrong this past year.
Since I'm a 'bright side' kinda guy, let's start with the hits of 2015 ...
Week 2 - Kendrys Morales, Kansas City
What I Said Then: 'He's batting 5th, thus far, and that means he's after a group of players who all show some upside (Alcides Escobar, Lorenzo Cain, and Eric Hosmer). The average may sit around .260, but this is a simple add that will get you 15-20 homers and close to 80 runs driven in.'
Now: Morales is headed to over 100 RBIs, 20 HRs, and even has an average close to .290.
Week 2 - Jeurys Familia, NY Mets
What I Said Then: 'His fastball-slider combo will always play and he has the chance to get some run here. I still think that Parnell is an iffy bet for effectiveness and health. Plus, it's a loooonnnnggg season. Stashing Familia even after Parnell's return would be worthwhile. As a wild card pick, I'd take a shot on Familia becoming '2015's Outta of Nowhere for 30 Saves'-guy.'
Now: Familia has had a strangle hold on the 9th inning job all season and has been elite with a good shot at over 40 saves.
Week 3 - Danny Salazar, Cleveland
What I Said Then: '... the top thing to remember with Salazar is his arm. It's still big-time. He can be a strikeout-per-inning kind of guy who performs in dominant fashion from time-to-time. If you need SP help, Salazar is a very strong dart throw.'
Now: It's mostly all come together for that righty who has maintained a superb K-rate (10.2) while lowering his walks.
Week 6 - Yasmani Grandal, LA Dodgers
What I Said Then: 'He's definitely better than he has shown and there's a good chance that he can be a top 15 catcher the rest of the way. Consider him a May gift if you're struggling to find an option at the catcher position. Remember, he did push out 15 homers last year.'
Now: Grandal has shown plenty of power for a catcher and needs just five more round-trippers to hit 20 this season.
Week 6 - Noah Syndergaard, NY Mets
What I Said Then: 'You're probably looking at close to 20 starts the rest of the way and we're unlikely to see a more impactful pitching call-up the rest of the summer. A reasonable expectation would be 8-10 wins, an ERA in the mid-3's, 7.5 K/9, and a WHIP sitting around 1.20. And all of those numbers could be better.'
Now: Even with the Mets slowing him down and saving him for the postseason, 'Thor,' has shown everything you'd want to see in a future #2.
Week 7 - Jaime Garcia, St. Louis
What I Said Then: '... it's worth noting that he has proven more than average when he's healthy enough to answer the bell. For his career, he sports a 42-26 record with an ERA of 3.50, a WHIP of 1.30, and a 7.2 K/9 rate.'
Now: Garcia has managed to stay upright and has an ERA of 2.00 while giving up more than three earned runs just once in 14 starts.
Week 7 - A.J. Ramos, Miami
What I Said Then: 'Bid as if you're getting a 20-save arm.'
Now: Ramos has racked up K's, a low ERA/WHIP-combo and 23 saves in less than four months.
Week 14 - Miguel Sano, Minnesota
What I Said Then: 'He's got a great power bat that should lead to a healthy amount of jogs around all four bases. He's got enough bat control and contact ability so that he won't go all 'Gallo' on us, either. The best news is that with the call-up, the Twins are handing him the DH job which whites out any fear that playing time may be fleeting. Go in with gusto.'
Now: Sano looks to be a future star. The whiffs are a tad heavy, but the DH has also shown an excellent eye to draw some walks.
Week 15 - Stephen Piscotty, St. Louis
What I Said Then: 'There could be a Randal Grichuk-like return here.'
Now: Piscotty is playing practically every day has answered with power and a remarkable .340 batting average.
Week 17 - Marcell Ozuna, OF, Miami
What I Said Then: 'Confidence is building and a call-up is coming soon. I mean, seriously, right now the Fish are running out Ichiro, Don Kelly, and Cole Gillespie in their outfield, for goodness sakes! Snag Ozuna on the cheap.'
Now: Since returning to Miami, Ozuna has 10 extra-base hits and 12 runs in under 70 at-bats.
Week 17 - Luis Severino, NY Yankees
What I Said Then: '... with such a big arm and with such a big need in the New York rotation, Severino is a dart throw I'd power up for.'
Now: Severino has looked Syndergaard-like with 29 whiffs in his first 29 innings (covering five starts).
Week 19 - Yangervis Solarte, San Diego
What I Said Then: 'He's excellent at putting the ball in play, has the perfect spot in the order (ahead of Matt Kemp and Justin Upton), and is continually overlooked. I'm buying on a solid finish to the year.'
Now: Solarte continues to hum along with a chance at 15 homers, plus 60+ RBIs and Rs, for the year.
(Note: To make the list, I'll apply a loose definition that says you have to likely be unowned in a vast majority of 12-team mixed leagues. At the end of each player note, I'll also provide a suggested bid for those that use FAAB (Free Agent Acquisition Budget) for their waiver process (based on a $100 budget). Understand that this is only a suggestion ... if you just lost you're a starting outfielder to injury and you have an immediate need or gaping hole in your lineup, you will find it necessary to bid more in order to get that week's top available outfielder.)
Hitters
J.P. Arencibia, C, Tampa Bay
Let's be clear ... you might have already missed the boat on Arencibia's run. Since being called up at the end of August, the veteran catcher has been on a tear with three homers included in his eight hits. Alongside, he's driven in nine guys. All of this coming in just 21 at-bats! So, sure, he's red-hot, but he's also still J.P. Arencibia. In other words, he's a journeyman who will still come out lucky if he ends the year hitting above-.200. That's right. .200! The Rays will continue to turn to him for the time being, but that gift of playing time could cease as soon a week from now.
Suggested FAAB bid - $1
Brandon Drury, 2B/3B, Arizona
Drury was called up earlier in the week when rosters expanded. He's performed well in the minors this season with a batting average over .300, plus 60+ RBI and 60+ R in 130 games over both Double- and Triple-A. Playing time isn't exactly clear at this point. Jake Lamb is still getting plenty of hacks at 3B and there's the Chris Owings/Aaron Hill logjam at 2B. That makes Drury little more than a twice-a-week starter with a handful of pinch-hitting appearances tossed in. I just can't see enough actual production to warrant any kind of add outside a deep NL-only set-up.
Suggested FAAB bid - $1
Brandon Moss, 1B, St. Louis
The early returns on Moss in the National League were downright dreadful. Before this past week, his post-Cleveland experience featured more K's (15) than hits (10) in his first 54 ABs with St. Louis. He had just 3 RBIs, 3 Rs, and one measly homerun. So, needless to say, the trade to add him looked like a bust. But, oh, what a week can do! In six starts in six games, Moss has come alive with three moon shots (including, a dramatic game-winning shot) and a total of 11 safeties in 22 at-bats. Where things get confusing for fantasy players is that the Cardinals are slowly welcoming back injured bats to the order. The team was hoping that Matt Adams would be good to go by now, but he suffered an early set-back. At the very least, Moss should get a good portion of chances against opposing righties. The biggest effect on his playing time might be the return of Matt Holliday and Randal Grichuk. Once those two return (and, it still looks like we're a couple of weeks away from that), Stephen Piscotty, could be heading to first base for some work.
Suggested FAAB bid - $3
Cory Spangenberg, 2B, San Diego
Spangenberg has been back and healthy for the Padres going on a full month, now. He's backing up at both second and third base, but has still seen his fair share of opportunities. And, overall, you'd be relatively happy if you were looking for a slight lift in average, as he's come through with a .294 mark in 51 at-bats. Beyond that, he's actually shown a little unexpected power with three doubles and two triples over the past three weeks. But, all in all, you've Spangenberg in a very similar position to Brandon Drury, who I listed above. He's behind two guys who should get the majority of starts (in fact, Yangervis Solarte and Jedd Gyorko, are just going too well, right now, to skip out on) and that caps his potential from the get-go.
Suggested FAAB bid - $1
Pitchers
Danny Duffy, SP, Kansas City
This southpaw has been a tough nut to crack this year, and, well, every year! He's got oodles of talent, but walks and injuries have hindered him throughout. He's currently in a healthy state and he's mostly lassoed his wild ways with a total of seven free passes in his last five starts. The problem now is that he's not going deep into games. Duffy has reached a point in his career where if he gives you six frames of work, you consider it a victory. He's settled into a string of so-so, mostly mediocre starts. He's not someone you add and then get a run of five or so starts to carry you. Instead, he's a spot starter in the fantasy game. Target him on the road (where he's 16-14 with a 3.50 ERA in 39 career starts) versus below-average lineups. A look at the KC schedule shows a 10-game road trip, so if you're looking to fill some innings, here's a cheap shot to take.
Suggested FAAB bid - $2
Raisel Iglesias, SP, Cincinnati
Quietly, Iglesias has become a force in the second half of the schedule. But, when you're performing like a force on no-nothing team, it often gets overlooked. The Cuban rookie shouldn't be on this list this late in the season, but with just three wins to his credit, he's going unowned in a large percentage of leagues. Currently, he's in the midst of a four-game run where he has gone seven innings in each and every start. That's big time stuff this late in the season, but again, it's gone overlooked because his record in those four game is 0-2. And, take a look at the massive strikeout numbers he's posting ... 13, 10, and 10! And, here's the cherry ... two starts (both home, against Pittsburgh and St. Louis) coming up this week. He's done an excellent job of repeating his delivery of late (an early-season issue) and that's allowed him to control all his pitches and to keep hitters guessing. Make an aggressive play if you have the FAAB on-hand.
Suggested FAAB bid - $8
Joe Kelly, SP, Boston
Kelly was one of the worst pitchers on the worst pitching staffs in the majors to begin 2015. The Red Sox somehow allowed him 14 chances (i.e., starts) to get rolling and it never happened as he was hammered to the tune of a 5.67 ERA and a WHIP that stood over 1.50. They finally threw in the towel for a month, finding an excuse to DL him for four weeks. He got a couple of unflattering starts in July that showed no improvement, but then August happened. Kelly found his groove with an MLB-best, six victories. He got September going with another win and now has gone 7-0 in his past seven starts, with a 2.43 ERA and a much more suitable 1.26 WHIP. Still ... he's not racking up the strikeouts, his control of the plate is still fleeting (14 freebies in 43 innings), and he's not exactly fooling guys with nearly a hit allowed per inning. A sober look shows he's benefited from plenty of run support (the Red Sox have scored five or more runs in six of the seven games) and you can't count on that to continue. He has a slew of AL East opponents (only one of his past seven starts has come against that division) coming up and that can also prove dangerous. He's hot, right now, but I'm not confident in a continued September push.
Suggested FAAB bid - $4
You can hear Kyle each weeknight on 'The SiriusXM Fantasy Drive' from 7-10 ET, Sirius 210, XM 87.
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