DFS Picks:
The Trio
Daniel Murphy (2B-NYM) - All the signs point to Murphy having a big day on Saturday. To start, Murphy will be playing in Cincinnati. Great American Ballpark has above average Park Factors in runs, home runs, and hits. Opposing pitcher Keyvius Sampson stinks at home. Sampson's record is 0-4 in Cincy with an 8.31 ERA. Overall, lefties are hitting .370 against Sampson. If you're a Met fan, you know that Daniel Murphy likes to swing. His 5.8% walk rate is proof. Along with his high swing frequency is Murphy's 92% contact rate and 7% K rate. Since he'll likely be putting the ball in play, Murphy should exploit Sampson's .354 BABIP. DraftKings Value Pick $4,500
Michael Conforto (OF-NYM) - I would suggest Michael Conforto for the same reasons that I would suggest Daniel Murphy. Keyvius Sampson is rocking an 8.31 home ERA and a .353 BABIP. Overall lefties are hitting .370 against Sampson with a .543 SLG. The main difference maker in Conforto's case is power. Conforto has eight home runs in 50 GP. At a hitter's ballpark like Great American Ballpark, the ball is going to carry a little extra. Given Conforto's .520 SLG, Sampson's mistakes will be even more costly. DraftKings Value Pick $3,900
Lucas Duda (1B-NYM) - Lucas Duda is the latest player to catch fire at Great American Ballpark. Duda's first inning grand slam increased his three game RBI total to 12 in Cincinnati. During this short time, Duda also has two other home runs and two doubles. He has five hits total in the series, and all five have gone for extra bases. With Keyvius Sampson pitching on Sunday, Duda will a top priority DFS player. DraftKings Value Pick $4,600
The Value Pick
Tom Koehler (SP-MIA) - I'm all for picking against the Braves, especially when the starting pitcher is good. Tom Koehler's 3.94 ERA and 1.33 WHIP may not seem great, but his real value can be distinguished by looking at his splits. Koehler is 5-5 at home with a 3.12 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP. To put that in perspective he is 5-9 on the road with a 4.70 ERA and a 1.43 WHIP. Two key statistics differentiate Koehler's splits. The first is his BAA. Koehler's .228 home BAA is 40 points better than his road BAA. The other important split is his HR/9. In Miami Koehler is averaging 0.75 HR/9. On the road this number is a much less impressive 1.37 HR/9. All the stats favor Koehler at home, and since he'll be facing a sub par offense his chances to throw a gem will be high. DraftKings Value Pick $7,000
The Second Half Stud
Stephen Strasburg (SP-WAS) - Anyone who thinks Stephen Strasburg isn't talented is a complete lunatic. As of Saturday, Stras has four consecutive starts with 10 or more Ks. His eight inning, one run performance that included 13 strikeouts was pure dominance. It was that much more impressive considering Philly's MLB 3rd lowest K count. Strasburg has been a force to be reckoned with since the All-Star break. His 5-2 record, 2.09 ERA, and 12.69 K/9 are evidence. He may not receive the recognition he deserves, but Stras definitely has the potential to win a Cy Young. That being said, make sure Stras is a high priority for your draft next season.
"This is just a small sample our daily analysis, join our member area for more premium content: http://www.fantistics.com/join/join.php3"
Follow me on Twitter @swallach27
Time Frame: Season
