As we head into the final month of the regular season, it's time to take a look at some of the candidates for 2015 fantasy MVP. These are not necessarily the best players overall, but players who have contributed the most relative to their price coming into the season. The following is a list of a few NL players who fall into this category and what to expect from them going forward.
A.J. Pollock, OF, ARI
The Diamondbacks have a number of outfielders right now that are exceeding expectations, but what Pollock has done this year has been other-worldly. After being drafted outside of the top-40 outfielders coming into 2015, Pollock entered Monday's game ranked 5th on the ESPN Player Rater - not fifth among outfielders, but fifth among all players in MLB - and that was before he hit a 2-run HR on Monday night. He has contributed in all areas, and his BA, runs and SB's all rank in the top four in the NL. While his .352 BABIP does seem high, his career BABIP is .331 and is backed up by a Hard% of over 34%. He also benefits from having a GB% above 50%, as his speed has allowed him to rack up IFH's at a high rate. Looking forward, the best comparison for Pollock would have to be Michael Brantley in 2014, another OF who hit well above .300 and provided value in all categories. While Brantley was expected to regress in 2015, and he has slightly, he remains a five category top-tier fantasy player and I don't expect anything different from Pollock. It's probably not fair to expect another top-10 finish in 2016, but I wouldn't expect him to slip past the third round in most drafts.
Jake Arrieta, SP, CHC
Arrieta is coming off his first career no-hitter, but his season thus far has been about much more than just one dominating performance. With a 2.11 ERA, 9.34 K/9, 53.7% GB%, and 17 wins, Arrieta has entrenched himself into the Cy Young discussion and would probably be the frontrunner if it weren't for Zach Grienke and Clayton Kershaw. He is however the frontrunner for NL fantasy pitcher of the year, as unlike the two Dodgers' aces, Arrieta wasn't being selected as a top-20 SP at the start of the season. Despite an excellent 2014 campaign, many owners were presumably worried that Arrieta would turn out to be a one year wonder. Now though he is on the verge of completing his second straight year of dominance - since the start of 2014, he is among the leaders in ERA (3rd in MLB), xFIP (3rd), WHIP (2nd) and K% (6th). At this point, Arrieta has to be viewed as a legitimate ace heading into 2016.
Jeurys Familia, RP, NYM
Familia continues to be among the most valuable closers in 2015, as he notched his 36th save on Monday despite allowing a run. Familia was for the most part undrafted this year in fantasy as the Mets expected to use Jenry Mejia or possibly Bobby Parnell as their closer, but it wasn't long before Familia took over and now he looks poised to finish as one of the league leaders in saves. With a 1.78 ERA, 69:16 K:BB ratio and an outstanding 58.2% GB%, there's no reason to think Familia can't be an excellent closing option in 2016 as well. Just remember though, the same way Familia - and plenty of others for that matter - came from nowhere to be top closers this year, there will be plenty of Familia's next year too, which is why it's never a good idea to pay for saves.
D.J. LeMahieu, 2B, COL
After going 3-5 with a SB on Monday, LeMahieu is hitting .311 with 20 SB's and 70 runs scored entering the final month of the season. Believe it or not, LeMahieu currents ranks 3rd On the ESPN Player Rater among 2nd baseman, ahead of the likes of Jason Kipnis, Brian Dozier, and Ian Kinsler. While the runs and steals have been nice, for those you could just turn to Delino DeShields or Cesar Hernandez. It's the elite BA that has made LeMahieu so valuable in 2015, and the question becomes whether he can be expected to keep that up. His 17.6% K% is good but not elite by any means, and he really has relied on his .374 BABIP to keep the high average. There are reasons to believe he keeps a high BABIP - his career mark is .342, he has an excellent 26.5% LD%, and he plays in Coors - but .374 still seems a bit high. If LeMaheiu would fall back to his career average (.285), he would still have value, but he wouldn't be in the conversation for top-5 2B. I would be very cautious about expecting a repeat of this year's numbers in 2016.
Todd Frazier, 3B, CIN
Frazier has not only proven that last year's power surge wasn't a fluke, but he has actually improved in that department as his 30 HR's entering September are already more than last year's total. His increased FB% should allow the power to continue, and he's as good a bet as any to hit 30+ homers next year as well. While Nolan Arenado's power breakout has been as impressive as Frazier's, what separates Frazier is the surprising steals. With 59 HR's and 31 SB's since the start of 2014, Frazier is the only player to have gone 50/30 in that span and believe me his owners appreciate it. He heads into 2016 as top-30 position player overall.
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