We would all love to find 'greatness' on the waiver wire, but it's very rare. Mostly, you find junk. That percentage may be near 80% over the course of an entire baseball season. The other 20% is mostly populated by extra outfielders, so-so pitching options, and the rare gem that pays with a relatively big showing.
The waiver 'greats' this year include, D.J. LeMahieu, Cameron Maybin, and Chris Heston. As helpful as they've all been this summer, it's doubtful that any of those three will end up in Cooperstown. But, then again, let's be honest, none of us are expecting the next Willie Mays when we head to the free agent list. We just need a guy who's going to help us now!
I bring up Cooperstown because this weekend marks baseball's annual celebration of all things historic as a new - and power-packed - class of players are inducted. One of those heroes, Randy Johnson, reminds us that although you can't count on greatness from your waiver wire, you may occasionally find that true nugget who turns into something great. It just happens about once a decade.
Johnson was a headache his first few seasons. Between Montreal and Seattle, The Big Unit was a .500 pitcher over his five seasons. In 129 starts, he racked up 49 wins, 48 losses, and a very mediocre (remember, this is the early-90s) 3.95 ERA. In other words, through 5 entire MLB campaigns, Johnson was a waiver wire player.
Soon thereafter, beginning in 1993, the lanky lefty began his dominating run. His next 124 starts led to a mind-blowing 75 wins, 20 losses, and a strong 2.86 ERA. The waiver wire fodder had become the superstar hurler. It kept going for a number of years and Johnson has ended up with enshrinement in baseball's highest tier.
So, before you say 'it's never happened before,' recall Johnson. Five years with sub-par efforts does not doom one to forever be tagged as little more than a waiver wire guy.
(Note: To make the list, I'll apply a loose definition that says you have to likely be unowned in a vast majority of 12-team mixed leagues. At the end of each player note, I'll also provide a suggested bid for those that use FAAB (Free Agent Acquisition Budget) for their waiver process (based on a $100 budget). Understand that this is only a suggestion ... if you just lost you're a starting outfielder to injury and you have an immediate need or gaping hole in your lineup, you will find it necessary to bid more in order to get that week's top available outfielder.)
Hitters
Michael Conforto, OF, NY Mets
The Mets' putrid offense is in dire need of a spark. After finally placing Michael Cuddyer on the disabled list, New York's brain trust gave in to the yelps of their fan base and promoted their top hitting prospect. Conforto is extremely light on experience with no at-bats over Double-A after being drafted just last year. He's shown a good bat in his limited time, hammering 12 balls over the wall while driving in 54, this season. You'll see some home runs, but I'd be surprised to see help in more than a pair of the five categories we're all hoping for. A big positive is playing time, though. The 22-year old is probably good-to-go in the New York outfield for the remainder of the season and the quantity of at-bats can help any team. Still, we're not talking about a top 40 outfielder for the late summer stretch run.
Suggested FAAB bid - $5
Scooter Gennett, 2B, Milwaukee
Every garage ... , eh, ... fantasy team has room for a Scooter in their life! Gennett was drafted in most leagues coming into the year and even if your expectations were muted, no one expected him to be demoted back to the minors. But, that's exactly what happened. Gennett couldn't hit his way out of a paper bag to fire up the year, as he was scuffling along to a very cold .154 batting mark through mid-May. After a month in Nashville, Gennett was recalled and has hit his way into relevancy. In 34 games, he's fashioned a .327 average, raising his season mark about 90 points. He's also driven in 15 while also scoring 15. At second base, that has got to play. Since he was left for dead his rebound has gone mostly unnoticed. Get in now and expect him to hit around .280 the rest of the way with a solid runs and RBI total for a middle infielder.
Suggested FAAB bid - $4
Connor Gillaspie, 3B, LA Angels
David Freese is no great shakes at third, but the Angels will miss him after he fractured his finger. They didn't have any immediately appealing options, so they had to go the trade route ... which is where Gillaspie comes in. LA made the flip with Chicago earlier in the week after he fell out of favor on the South Side. He was given the gig at third to begin the year, but struggled just like the rest of the Chi-Sox lineup. But, unlike Alexei Ramirez or Melky Cabrera, Gillaspie didn't have a big contract or lengthy history that would keep him in the lineup. With a new chance in a new home, Gillaspie may find his way. It wouldn't surprise me to see him drive in around 25 runner over the next 4-6 weeks, while Freese is out. That, along with, say, a .270+ average, could keep him in as a starter even when the incumbent is back to health.
Tyler Saladino, 3B, Chicago White Sox
Saladino was one big reason that Chicago could give away Gillaspie without worry (being buried in the standings was an even bigger reason!). In just 11 games, he's handled his first big league look with aplomb. He may have ZERO walks in his first 44 at-bats, but he's shown some pop with a couple of bombs and a slugging mark of over .450. He does not profile as a big batting threat and that's easy to say because he's had just one minor league year with more than nine homers ... out of six! Overall, what you have is most a decent singles hitter. Frankly, there's no question that can be summoned where Saladino is the answer.
Suggested FAAB bid - $1
Jake Smolinski, OF, Oakland
Many fantasy players likely believe that Smolinski is still on another A.L. West team, Texas. But, no, he was claimed off waivers by the A's earlier this month. Since the All-Star break, the 26-year old has gotten a few starting chances and has answered with some good plate appearances. His best moment was a 3-hit, 2-HR effort last Sunday. But, since then? Two starts. That's the problem, you can add a guy who is due three starts per week. Even if he's hitting when he's out there, he's doing nothing half the week when he's on the bench. The Athletics won't be handing him a starting spot anytime soon, so you shouldn't hand him a fantasy spot, either.
Suggested FAAB bid - $1
Pitchers
Steve Cishek, RP, St. Louis
The Cardinals made their usual trade deadline deal (adding a solid, mid-inning reliever) before the weekend. Cishek started the year as a mid-level closer, but was brutal enough in the early going to be jettisoned back to Triple-A by the Marlins. His return to Miami saw a return to effectiveness (just one earned run allowed in his 12.2 innings, plus 11 K's against four free passes) even though it wasn't in his customary 9th inning spot. Now with St. Louis, Cishek is an emergency closer and is really in no different spot than where he was with the Fish. Holds' leagues can kick the tires, but I wouldn't recommend Cishek as a 'hold and pray,' in most leagues.
Suggested FAAB bid - $1
J.J. Hoover, RP, Cincinnati
Aroldis Chapman's name is getting tossed into trade discussions and that means there is a possibility of a new man in Cincinnati. A lot of folks looking for a cheap 10 saves over the final couple of months could do worse than Hoover. His ERA is just a tick below Chapman's (2.08 vs. the flame-thrower's 1.74) and he's also managed to pull back on historically wild ways (a still lacking, 3.7 walks per nine). On the flip side, his K-rate has taken a mysterious dive from a career mark that stands over 9 to a tiny 6.6 this year. It appears that's attributable to a change in focus. Instead, of trying to blow opposing hitters away with the heater, Hoover has pushed for contact, low in the zone, and, thus, he's seen a big bump up in his ground ball rate. He actually coughed up a lead earlier in the week and blew a save while he was filling in for a resting, Chapman, but the Reds don't have much of an option beyond Hoover if they find a trade partner for current elite arm in the 9th.
Suggested FAAB bid - $3
Martin Perez, SP, Texas
Perez was performing quite well in 2014 before blowing out his arm and going the Tommy John route. He's rehabbed his way back and is set for a pair of starting nods in the upcoming week with home tilts versus the Yankees and Giants. Unfortunately, his first two turns have been pockmarked with hard hits and fleeting control. In fact, he hasn't really fooled anyone in his first 11 innings of '15. Until you see some actual positive results, this is a real shot in the dark. I don't expect the storyline to get rewritten this week against two fairly good lineups taking their cuts in Arlington. Follow the starts to see if a turn-around is in the midst, but don't play the starts on your fantasy squad.
Suggested FAAB bid - $1
You can hear Kyle each weeknight on 'The SiriusXM Fantasy Drive' from 7-10 ET, Sirius 210, XM 87.
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