Let's turn over the start of the column to a television info-mercial ...
"Down in the standings? Wondering where the statistical help is going to come from? Can't find a trading partner who will give you a fair shake? Worst of all, how are you supposed to add anyone off the waiver wire when you're down to your final $12? Well, fear not, you're not the only one. Here at the Fantistics Waiver Targets Institute, we realize that funds are short and time is shrinking for most everyone. How do you make the most of your remaining FAAB? What makes a legitimate target? And, can I really make a move in the ratio categories in mid-July? We're here to help! Just read below."
The 2015 season has passed the halfway point and with the lengthy All-Star break this week, it's an excellent time to revamp and rejigger a game plan for the final 2 ½ months. At this juncture, the heaviest push that you're going to get on your roster will come via trade. There just aren't many - if any - long-term answers left on the waiver wire. But, that doesn't mean there is zero help to be found in the waiver pool.
First things first, don't expect to make a significant move up in the 5x5 categories of batting average, ERA, and WHIP. One player added can help, but one player can't have a significant impact since we're so deep into the season. More than anything, if you're looking to move up in these columns, you better hope that multiple hitters/pitchers, already on your squad, find their way in the late-summer months. A random flip in performance by many guys is possible, but as a fantasy owner, often your best hope is to just, well, hope!
Elsewhere, things are completely different in the 5x5 categories of homers, steals, wins, and saves. Before formulating a plan, take a deep look at which categories offer the most movement potential. Does 10 homers lift you up just two spots? Would 15 steals move you up five slots? Be realistic. Even a great closer may be in line for just 15 more saves over the remainder of the season because of happenstance and opportunity.
At the same time, you don't need to get the 'best' closer or 'best' home run hitter to get a lift. So, often people seem to believe that the only way to improve a stolen base total is to get Billy Hamilton or Jose Altuve. Meanwhile, much cheaper options such as Gregory Polanco or Cameron Maybin go forgotten.
This is where the waiver wire comes in. Finding the player who has an upcoming one-week road trip to Coors Field and Miller Park (two excellent hitting yards) is a must if you're searching for a lift in homers or RBIs. On the flip side, finding any two-start pitcher with games, for instance, in Miami and New York (even if they're a mediocre option overall) are must's if you're serious about stealing extra wins.
Bidding-wise, because funds are likely limited, we're talking $0 and $1 bids on below-average pitchers who are set for a couple of starts (think guys like Wade Miley, Jeremy Guthrie, Chris Tillman, Tom Koehler, etc.). For hitters, if a guy is set for an uptick in ABs because of injury, bid $3 or under (say, if a player like Drew Stubbs or C.J. Cron fell into more opportunities).
Finally, be incredibly active during each waiver period. If you're serious about making a run and hunting down waiver help, you need to be prepared to make seven, eight, nine, even ten, bids per week. Eighty percent of them can be for $0, but those bids can easily pay off if you know what to look for ... opportunity, extra starts, a righty-killer set to face six righties that week, a favorable schedule of ballparks, a move up in the batting order, etc.
(Note: To make the list, I'll apply a loose definition that says you have to likely be unowned in a vast majority of 12-team mixed leagues. At the end of each player note, I'll also provide a suggested bid for those that use FAAB (Free Agent Acquisition Budget) for their waiver process (based on a $100 budget). Understand that this is only a suggestion ... if you just lost you're a starting outfielder to injury and you have an immediate need or gaping hole in your lineup, you will find it necessary to bid more in order to get that week's top available outfielder.)
Hitters
Nick Castellanos, 3B, Detroit
The past three weeks have seen Detroit's youngster turn around what had been a miserable season. While providing good 'D' at third, Castellanos has produced hits in 14 of his past 16 games. In that stretch, he's also driven in 12 while contributing seven extra-base hits. He still is much too aggressive and willing to chase, but when he's locked in, he's a good ride to take. Things will, obviously, slow down, but Castellanos has a shot at ending the year with a .250/15/70 line.
Suggested FAAB bid - $3
Jarrod Dyson, OF, Kansas City
As soon as Alex Gordon crumpled at the base of the left-field wall, Dyson became an exciting option. The jury is very much still out on his ability to stick as a hitter, but no one doubts his speed on the base paths. In under 1,100 plate appearances, Dyson has somehow come up with 131 career thefts. For comparisons sake, Billy Hamilton has 111 total steals in 965 plate appearances. The Royals have been very good at getting Dyson in to games a pinch-runner and, on the occasions where he has started, it's been against RHPs that he can handle. Now, he gets a step up in with Gordon out for two months. I have strong doubts about Dyson hitting more than .260 for those eight weeks, but anyone who needs a lift in the steals category better be in on the bidding here.
Suggested FAAB bid - $8
John Jaso, C, Tampa Bay
Jaso was a forgotten man after leaving Tampa's active roster in the first week of the regular season. His injured wrist is now good to go and so is Jaso. The Rays brought him back into the fold this week and, in a surprise, they slotted him in the outfield. The chance marked his first-ever game in the outfield. Jaso really isn't much of a help in the outfield, but the eligibility does give some boost to his overall value. For those in two-catcher leagues, Jaso is a very solid add. As long as he's in the lineup (a career-long battle), Jaso can post a good average with slight pop. At the very least Tampa is driven to give him time behind the plate, as a DH, and, yes, even in the outfield.
Suggested FAAB bid - $4
Jesus Montero, 1B, Seattle
The 'comeback piece' in Seattle's trade of Michael Pineda to New York. As of now, Montero is just the latest entry in a growing list of Yankee farmhands who appear to have been vastly overrated. Montero has flamed out in previous opportunities with the Mariners, but now he returns with more experience, a measure of success, and no need for him to struggle along as a catcher. After dropping a large amount of weight, Montero has regained some of his former luster. This season at AAA-Tacoma, he's hammered the ball over the wall 15 times, while crafting a remarkable .332 batting average. Of course, he's always handled himself well in the minors ... the majors are the issue a .258 hitter with an OPS under-.700 in 700 at-bats. Seattle is looking for any kind of jolt (the move for Mark Trumbo has, thus far, not panned out) and Montero will likely stay on the 25-man roster moving forward for the remainder of this season. This is, in effect, a final chance for Seattle to see if he can cut it as a big leaguer.
Suggested FAAB bid - $3
Paulo Orlando, OF, Kansas City
Even though fantasy players everywhere would prefer that the above-mentioned, Dyson, would get all the time in Gordon's absence, you can bet that manager Ned Yost will give Orlando some chances. And, let's be truthful, even if Orlando isn't playing in the place of the injured Gordon, he deserves a shot at removing ever-disappointing, Alex Rios, from the starting nine. Orlando has had some big-time moments this year (including a game-winning, 9th inning grand slam earlier this week) and that will earn him continued looks. The problem is that he doesn't profile as a player that provides anything truly above-average. He's doomed to be a better real-life player than what he can give in our world. He can have a hot run on the average-front and could get a decent amount of runs. But, all in all, you've got a fantasy OF6 here.
Suggested FAAB bid - $2
Stephen Piscotty, OF/1B, St. Louis
St. Louis continues to run away with the best record in baseball and they also continue to run out any number of possibilities at first base. None of them have really stuck. There's probably a trade somewhere to be found this month, but there's also a chance that the 'Birds give their most-proven hitting prospect a call-up soon. Piscotty is a natural outfielder, but has been getting work at 1B over the past week. He's done all he can, lumber-wise, in the minors. As of this writing, he's posted an OPS over .830 with good pop and the ability to drive in a run or two. He's not a high-end hitting prospect, and he's mostly an NL-only option, but there's an opening for playing time if he can handle the defensive move. There could be a Randal Grichuk-like return here.
Suggested FAAB bid (upon call-up) - $3
Pitchers
Aaron Nola, SP, Philadelphia
This should be the month where Philadelphia finally admits defeat and bails on any sense of competition in 2015. Part of the fall-out from the assumed sell-off of anyone and everyone should be Nola. He's the top hurler in the Phillies' organization and has been quite strong over two levels this season with 10 wins and a 2.07 ERA in 17 starts between Double- and Triple-A. Nola is a command guy. He's not going to overpower with much, but he does keep you guessing with a trio of solid offerings (fastball, slider, change). His size isn't perfect, but he can become a third starter for a major league squad. That makes him around an SP4 long-term ... a streaming option for this season.
Suggested FAAB bid - $4
Joe Smith, RP, LA Angels
Huston Street has, again, been one of the most spot-on closers in baseball. But, as usual with Huston, he's also found his way to some dings and dents on the health front. Earlier in the week, Street came up lame with a (reported) 'slight' groin strain. The Angels proved proactive in their response and will set Street down for the entire weekend series in Seattle. Smith is the proverbial next guy up and, if you have the room for a random stash, this isn't a bad tosser to use it on. Smith has been good enough in his set-up role with solid marks in ERA, WHIP, and K's. None of it leads to an assumption of 'better than average' as a closer, but, honestly, all we're looking for are saves. No matter what the peripherals look like, we'll take the saves! Street is never a good bet to stay healthy. That makes Smith a good stash to make now ... especially with Street currently limping.
Suggested FAAB bid - $3
You can hear Kyle each weeknight on 'The SiriusXM Fantasy Drive' from 7-10 ET, Sirius 210, XM 87.
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