Perhaps the biggest battle we wage is the constant conflict of a 'great performance' versus a 'great player.' Very ordinary, if not below-average, players can have incredible, single-game showings. But, the title of 'great' is only bestowed upon those who earn it over a lengthy period of time.
Need I remind you of one of the greatest pitching performances we've seen over the past five years? Back on April 21, 2012, an unknown righty took to the mound in Seattle and turned in one of the rarest of rare in baseball - the perfect game.
Phillip Humber of the White Sox fired those nine perfect innings that featured nine whiffs. Immediately, he jumped to the top of that week's waiver wants and some folks were more than willing to wipe out nearly every dollar in their FAAB budget to add the 'hot new thing.'
I remember hosting my show that Sunday evening on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio. There were a good half-dozen callers who said I was a fool to state the obvious ... the perfect game changes nothing about Humber. He's a nobody who had a great, single-game effort. He's a guy with nothing special to separate him from the pack. He's never shown consistency, health, or dominance. In a phrase ... don't waste your time. I don't think I convinced many people.
Well, we know how that turned out.
Which leads us to Chris Heston. Now, let me state for the record ... Heston is, and will be, a better pitcher than Humber. But, his great one-game, no-hit effort against New York should not overshadow the immense inconsistencies that he has shown all season long. There's a reason that even after nine incredible innings the other night, Heston is still saddled with a 3.77 ERA and a WHIP just a hair below 1.20. The reason is that you never know what Heston you'll see.
He has a half-dozen games of at least six innings with two runs or fewer. Great! But, ... In his other half-dozen starts, he lasted a combined 21.1 innings, giving up 27 runs! He's been thoroughly impossible to predict. Good starts have followed pitiful starts. Dreadful outings have followed brilliant showings.
To me, he's still little more than a fantasy SP4/5. He's a good spot-start or a guy who gets the call for a two-start week, but you shouldn't be going crazy to spear him off the waiver wire this weekend. There's more on Heston and others below.
(Note: To make the list, I'll apply a loose definition that says you have to likely be unowned in a vast majority of 12-team mixed leagues. At the end of each player note, I'll also provide a suggested bid for those that use FAAB (Free Agent Acquisition Budget) for their waiver process (based on a $100 budget). Understand that this is only a suggestion ... if you just lost you're a starting outfielder to injury and you have an immediate need or gaping hole in your lineup, you will find it necessary to bid more in order to get that week's top available outfielder.)
Hitters
Joey Butler, OF, Tampa Bay
The long-time journeyman has found a regular gig in Tampa. The continued absence of Desmond Jennings has opened up a ton of opportunities for the 29-year old and he's answered the bell resoundingly. After another three hits and two RBIs on Friday night, Butler is crushing his way to .350/.377/.530 slash line. That's impressive enough to give him another two weeks of rope in a fantasy league. There is still the looming shadow of an incredibly off-centered strike out-to-walk ratio that stands at 34:2 (that's not a typo!), but Butler is locked in at the top his team's batting order, always giving him the shot to pump up the counting marks. Ride it for as long as you can.
Suggested FAAB bid - $6
Ivan DeJesus, Jr., 2B/OF, Cincinnati
The Reds' season is circling the toilet bowl as we speak and the burial seems to get more painful by the day. With Zack Cozart shelved for the remainder of the year, Brandon Phillips limping around the clubhouse, Marlon Byrd DL'd, and the on-going ugliness that is a Billy Hamilton at-bat, DeJesus is just the proverbial, 'Next Guy Up.' He's bounced around the field and the batting order in his first week with the Reds and there is still at least one more bounce to go ... an unnecessary and foolish bounce onto active rosters this weekend. Don't get caught up in a 6-game sample. DeJesus has been a traveler of clubhouses throughout his career and 2015 doesn't figure to be the destination with a fantasy payoff.
Suggested FAAB bid - $1
Danny Espinosa, 2B/SS, Washington
The Nationals really don't know what to do with Espinosa. His normal infield spots are already spoken for, but his bat has been strong enough this season (an OPS over .820) to force the team to look at him as an outfield possibility. He's gotten a lot of pre-game work there in the past week and manager Matt Williams has suggested he'll get game-time action soon. You wouldn't be getting a difference maker with Espinosa, but you would be snagging a perfect depth play to be used up the middle and in the outfield. You can count on at least a few DL stints to pop up for your regulars between now and September. Guys like Espinosa keep you from ever having to take a chance on guys like DeJesus.
Suggested FAAB bid - $7
Hector Olivera, 2B/SS LA Dodgers
On Friday, the Dodgers promoted their most-recent Cuban signee to Triple-A. The 30-year old (yes, you read that correctly) performed well in six games at Double-A Tulsa. One of his seven safeties went over the wall and he also tacked on six RBIs and a few runs. There's really no telling how long he remains with Oklahoma City - his infield defense has been shaky, he's still rusty after many months of waiting on visa issues, and (the biggie) L-A just doesn't have the roster space for him, right now. Of course, as we head into the mid-Summer months, you have got to expect the Dodgers to relieve some pressure on their roster crunch. Both an outfielder and an infielder will probably be traded in the coming weeks so that the team can run a healthy arm into their slightly depleted rotation. We don't know who those players will be, but that could open up a slot for Olivera. His best chance at getting to the bigs is an injury to either Howie Kendrick or Jimmy Rollins. Heck, with the way that Rollins is flailing, maybe Los Angeles makes a drastic decision to go to the 'unproven' over 'the old.' It's at least a consideration. Skill-wise, there isn't much to go off with Olivera. It's the usual ... his Cuban years showed he can hit, with OK power, and a little speed. Is he all that different from his future teammate, Alex Guerrero? There's a ton of mystery here and you could be stuck with nothing more than a 4-to-6-week stash. I'd let him be someone else's aggravation.
Suggested FAAB bid - $2
Giovanny Urshela, 3B, Cleveland
A simple look at Urshela's minor league marks will inform you that there's little excitement in his bat. It's what we might term, well, average. It can play in the major leagues, but it won't do any real damage. Of course, when your competition is the ever-disappointing, Lonnie Chisenhall, just presenting a moderate threat at the plate is an improvement. Urshela has improved his power in the last couple of seasons, but his calling card is a very strong glove at the hot corner. And it's certain that every pitcher in the Indians' rotation will appreciate adding him to one of the weakest defenses in the league. That should give him plenty of time to prove if he can hang tough against the pitching. But, in the fantasy game, the wait is probably too long and the results too boring.
Suggested FAAB bid - $2
Pitchers
Chris Heston, SP, San Francisco
I'll channel the thoughts of my radio co-host, Ray Flowers. Compare Heston's results (mentioned above at the start of this column) to those of the recently-demoted, Shane Greene. In 13 overall starts, Greene had six games where he registered at least 5 innings with two runs or less. His other seven starts were brutal (how about a tortuous 15.62 ERA in those games?!). He's obviously a worse option than Heston (pitching in Toledo will do that to you), but what I'm getting at are the relative inconsistencies of the two. If I had another 10 starts from Heston to use when placing my bid, I'd feel so much more comfortable. As is, your left competing for a player coming off a no-hitter that has given us plenty of good with a worrisome amount of bad. I think he'll prove to be a very average pitcher the rest of the way.
Suggested FAAB bid - $9
Steven Matz, SP, NY Mets
New York has still another arm to showcase later this summer. The lefty Matz was on a roll before slumping with his worst outing of the season this past week. Even with the burdensome turn in the rotation, Matz has molded a 2.30 ERA with six wins and more than a K-per-inning in his 13 Triple-A starts. His curveball still has to develop and there have been some questions about his confidence level when on the hump. Mets' fans obviously want a call-up, but we're likely still a few weeks (or, injury) away from such a move. There's still another wild card to consider. The competitive (for now) Mets could dangle Matz in trade discussions for a bat, meaning his 2015 future and status could flip-flop in his single day.
Suggested FAAB bid - $6
Rafael Soriano, RP, Chicago Cubs
The signing of Soriano earlier this week probably says more about the Cubs than it does about Soriano. Hector Rondon has not been terrible by any stretch, but his shakiness has the suddenly-contending team piling up some other options. And, Soriano is a good bullet to have in your holster. He has ton of time off to overcome, but Soriano knows what he's doing. Word is that he's kept in near-game shape and that there's still something to be said for his arm. But, understand that even Joe Maddon has said that Soriano probably doesn't make it up the Windy City for another full month. That's a lot of time for any fantasy owner to wait on the possibility of adding a slinger who can wrap up some saves. If you're considering Soriano it's because you need saves now. Again, you will not get them until mid-July ... at the earliest ... if then.
Suggested FAAB bid - $5
Vincent Velasquez, SP, Houston
When will Houston run out of guys between the ages of 20 and 24? Oh, probably not for another half-decade! The long-rumored great farm system is turning out a nice harvest in 2015. Velasquez made his MLB debut earlier in the week and turned in a 5-inning no decision that featured three hits allowed, four walks, and five punchouts. Nothing truly special, but enough to turn some fantasy heads. After all, we go bonkers for anyone under the age of 24 who hits the mid-90s on their fastball. Velasquez is verrrry inexperienced (a grand total of 26 innings of work above A-ball) and that could lead to a quick hook from games and the roster. He's risky, but might be able to turn into a fantasy spot-starter.
Suggested FAAB bid - $5
You can hear Kyle each weeknight on 'The SiriusXM Fantasy Drive' from 7-10 ET, Sirius 210, XM 87.
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