Happy Father's Day everyone! Each weekend, we publish our free analysis of the daily plays position-by-position. If you haven't already tried out Daily Fantasy Baseball, now is the perfect time to take it for a test spin. The beauty of Daily Fantasy is the short-term time commitment (one-day games) and the opportunity to win real money fast. To help aid you in the lineup construction process, below is a free sample of the type of daily content that is published over at Fantistics' sister site, MyFantasyFix. I always recommend starting to build your roster around your favorite pitcher of the day and fill out the rest of the lineup spots based on relative value-to-cost. To make this easier, below you'll find our top plays, value plays, and cheap (or punt) plays.Use this as a guide as you set your lineups for FanDuel and DraftKings. Please also tune in to our show on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio from 10AM-1PM ET on weekend mornings as we discussed values once lineups are announced.
Vegas Lines Outliers - Offense:
Milwukee (-115) @ Colorado - 11 runs
Baltimore @ Toronto (-120) - 9.5 runs
San Diego@ Arizona (-115) - 8.5 runs
Vegas Lines Outliers - Pitching:
NY Mets (-120) @ Atlanta - 6.5 runs
Detroit @ NY Yankees (-125) - 7 runs
Weather Concerns:
Cleveland vs Tampa Bay -The game window looks decently clear for now but the issue are the rain showers occurring for most of the day beforehand
Miami @ Cinicinnati - There's a 70-80% chance of rain late in the game window today. Pitchers should be clear (not that you'd use them) but hitters may be a little risky.
Flyball Hitters (>40%) vs Flyball Pitchers (>40%):
Jose Bautista
Nelson Cruz
Justin Upton
Colby Rasmus
Curtis Granderson
Quality Fastball Hitters vs Heavy Fastball Pitchers (>60%):
Andrew McCutchen
Bryce Harper
Giancarlo Stanton
George Springer
Nelson Cruz
Steve Pearce
Quality Slider Hitter vs Heavy Cutter Pitcher (>25%):
Nori Aoki
Billy Burns
Angel Pagan
Quality Cutter Hitter vs CutterSlider Pitcher (>25%):
Carlos Gomez
Khris Davis
Quality Curveball Hitter vs Heavy Curvebal Pitcher (>25%):
N/A
Quality Changeup Hitter vs Heavy Chaneup Pitcher (>25%):
Yasiel Puig
Joc Pederson
Justin Upton
Hitting Stacks:
Col vs Matt Garza
Mil @ Chris Rusin
SD @ Jeremy Hellickson
TOR vs Chris Tillman
Pitching:
Top Plays:
Matt Harvey @ ATL - Matt Harvey is going to be the most heavily owned pitcher of the day and it's hard to argue against people's reasoning. After a couple rocky appearances, he shutout the Blue Jays earlier this week and now faces a team with the 4th lowest ISO in baseball and middle-of-the-pack rankings in OPS and wOBA. One word of caution, the team also has the 3rd lowest strikeout rate of anyone in baseball against right-handed pitching. I think Harvey is a fine choice in cash games but I might look somewhere cheaper for tournaments given the lack of strikeout upside.
Jake Arrieta @ MIN - Jake Arrieta is another guy that should see a lot of love today. Facing a Twins lineup that ranks in the bottom half of the league in just about any offensive category you can choose, Arrieta could be in line for a nice day with a very favorable ballpark shift. I love Arrieta's 50% groundball rate, especially in a park the size of Target Field.
Value Plays:
Michael Wacha @ PHI - The Phillies have been a popular target to pick on this year and rightfully so. On the season, the Phils rank last in wOBA (.280) and wRC+ (74) and rank second to last in team wOBA. If Wacha were at home, he'd be a clear top play for me but even as it stands, I still think he's a solid value. The strikeouts haven't been there this year (just an 18% strikeout rate) but his 9% swinging strike rate and 65% first strike percentage suggest he might be getting a little unlucky. Given the matchup, he's probably going to be heavily owned, however.
Brett Anderson vs SF - If you're looking for a pitcher on a multi-pitcher site who may be overlooked, it's Brett Anderson. Anderson's 67% groundball rate is a career high and a big reason he's been so successful this year. The Giants don't strikeout much but that's okay because strikeout ability isn't built into Anderson's price tag. If a tournament situation on DraftKings, I like pairing Anderson with a high strikeout upside to get a nice combination of high ceiling and some safety with Anderson, all while saving a lot of money to invest in all the great hitting environments today.
Tournament:
Julio Teheran vs NYM - A contrarian play today is Julio Teheran. His season has been a train wreck but he has looked a lot better lately when we has pitched at home. The Mets offense is scuffling at the moment and as a team, they're hitting just a .282 wOBA while on the road this year. Meanwhile,Teheran's wOBA at home is just .250 while his road split is an ugly .461. People will point to Teheran's 14 homeruns on the year and consider him too volatile with a Mets lineup that has a couple of big bats (Duda & Granderson), but like the wOBA, just 3 of those homeruns on the year have come at home. His price is way down but I don't mind him in tournaments. The biggest problem with Teheran is the fact he's facing off against Harvey so the win potential may not be there.
Catcher:
Top Play:
Jonathan Lucroy vs Chris Rusin - Rusin is a lefty with heavy fastball and cutter usage. Lucroy has a fantastic 2.44 wCT/c since 2013 and is playing in a great hitting environment in Colorado. He has also been drawing a favorable lineup spot hitting second for the Brewers.
Russell Martin vs Chris Tillman - I really like a lot of the Blue Jays bats today. Russell Martin will cost you a pretty penny but he has a great matchup against Chris Tillman who struggles on the road and Martin has pretty solid reverse splits against right-handers with a ..354 wOBA since 2013.
Value Plays:
Chris Iannetta vs Scott Kazmir - Chris Iannetta is my favorite value play of the day at the catcher position. Iannetta absolutely crushes left-handed pitching and on Sunday he gets to tee off on lefty Scott Kazmir. Over the past two seasons, he has an ISO of .205 vs left-handers, indicating that most of his power production over that timespan has come against southpaws. He's very cheap and he'll likely get a decent spot in the lineup.
Francisco Cervelli vs Gio Gonzalez -Another guy who hits left-handers pretty well is Francico Cerveilli. He doesn't hit for much power but he finds a way to get on base (.364 wOBA). I don't like the matchup against a heavy groundball pitcher like Gio but he's a reasonable cheaper option with decent splits.
Yasmani Grandal vs Tim Lincecum - It's the same old song for Tim Lincecum. One day he looks like a Cy Young winner and the next he can barely find the strikezone. Linceum's tendencies to put runners on bodes well for the Dodgers to put up some runs today, especially for the Dodger hitters that hit for power. Grandal has a .202 ISO against right-handed pitching and is averaged 1.82 points per plate appearance on DK.
First Basemen
Top Play:
Edwin Encarnacion vs Chris Tillman - An elite flyball power hitter up against a flyball pitcher who struggles on the road? I can barely contain my excitement! Encarnacion's power against right-handed pitching is off the charts with .275 ISO. Add that to Tillman's 40% flyball rate and Encarnacion's 44% flyball rate and 19.7% HR/FB ratio since 2013 and we're stacking the odds pretty far in his favor.
Miguel Cabrera vs Masahiro Tanaka - I love Miggy in day games! He's been on quite roll and is usually a pretty safe bet to at least return some positive points, average 0.80 points per plate appearance on FanDuel and 2.24 points per plate appearance on DraftKings since 2013. He's getting a nice ballpark shift to Yankee Stadium and Tanaka just isn't the same pitcher as he was last season pre-injury.
Paul Goldschmidt vs Andrew Cashner - It's always fun to target San Diego's pitchers when they leave Petco but it's even more fun to target them in places like Colorado or Arizona. Goldy gets a great matchup against the heavy fastball throwing Andrew Cashner today. He's exceptionally expensive and for that reason is more of a tournament option that cash game play but he's been the best hitter in baseball for most of the year. Cashner throws fastballs 66% of the time and Goldy has a 2.42 wFB/c rating against fastballs since 2013. Yum.
Value Play
Adrian Gonzalez vs Tim Lincecum - Adrian Gonzalez is incredibly cheap on FanDuel at $3,000 and I really want to try to get exposure to Tim Lincecum on the road. A-Gon has been scuffling lately but he has an ISO of .212 against right-handers since 2013 and a great .376 wOBA. He's a fantastic value if you're trying to fit in a lot of hitters in the good hitting environments.
Joey Votto vs David Phelps - A guy whose still pricey but not quite as budget breaking as the others is Joey Votto. Playing at home, Votto is in a nice spot against David Phelps whose getting an unfavorable park shift to Great American. Votto has averaged a wOBA of .401 with .926 OPS against right-handers since 2013.
Cheap Play:
Logan Morrison vs Vincent Velasquez - Vincent Velasquez had a good debut on paper but what's missing in his surface stats was his hard hit percentage of 42%. Ideally, you want your pitcher to be less than 30% and anything in the mid-30's will raise eyebrows. I think Velasquez is due for a little regression and Morrison is really cheap if you need to find salary relier. Just because he's cheap though, doesn't mean he's a punt play. LoMo has a .170 ISO against right-handed pitching since 2013 with a .757 OPS. At near minimum price on most daily sites, he can return excellent value.
Second Basemen
Top Play:
Jason Kipnis vs Alex Colome - On a day when I would rather go value or paying up for second basemen, Kipnis leads the way as the top option if you do want to spend the money. Kipnis is averaging a great 2.00 points per plate appearance on DraftKings against right-handed pitching sine 2013 but most of that damage isn't coming in the form of power (just a .149 ISO). As a result, I'd rather play Kipnis in cash games and try to gamble with one of the value plays below in tournaments.
Value Plays:
Joe Panik vs Brett Anderson - Rarely do I recommend targeting hitters against heavy groundballers like Brett Anderson but it's really hard to ignore the price/reward that comes with Joe Panik against the left-handers. Against southpaws since 2013, Panik has an excellent .379 wOBA (2nd highest among second basemen today) and an OPS of .862 (4th highest). He offers no power (.101 ISO) but he can still find other ways to return value for cash games.
Cory Spangenberg vs Jeremy Hellickson - Okay, here's your tournament option #1 at the second base position. I don't mind him in cash games either but in tournaments Spangenberg is a nice option considering his bottom barrell pricing a a little pop he brings to the table. Most importantly, he's playing in the second-most homerun environment in baseball.
Ryan Goins vs Chris Tillman - Goins typically doesn't bring a lot of power to the table (although he has in the last week) but he's been swinging a hot bat and he's in a great hitting environment against a potential gas can. This is a perfect example of a player to pay for to hope he gains from a strong offense around him against an average to below average pitcher.
Other Plays: Derek Dietrich vs Mike Lorenzen - Dietrich is seeing quite a bit of playing time with the Marlins and he had a huge night last night with two homeruns. He draws another good matchup today and you have to love the great hitting environment he's in.
Third Basemen
Top Play:
Josh Donaldson vs Chris Tillman - As I mentioned above, Tillman is a potential gas can when pitching on the road. Donaldson is an above average hitter on 3 pitches - fastballs, curveballs, and changeups. Coincidentally, Tillman's repertoire consists predominatly fastballs, curveballs, and changeups. I think they'll be plenty of Blue Jays stacks today so Donaldson will likely be heavily owned.
Value Play:
Chris Davis vs Scott Copeland (on DK) - On DraftKings where Chris Davis qualifies as 3B, I really like him against Scott Copeland. I'm not quite as big on him on FanDuel where I'd rather pay up for one of the top 3 options but he's still a reasonable price over there and what really stands out in his huge power against right-handed pitching. Since 2013, Davis has an ISO of .300. Seriously, his ISO is .300 on a statistics that rates anyone above .180 as very good. He's a solid value option but I'm always hesitant to play hitters against pitchers the first time they pitch since the general scounting reports usually aren't out on him yet.
Aramis Ramirez vs Chris Rusin - Here's the second of what will be many Brewers hitting this list today. Getting a nice park shift to Colorado, Aramis has to be in consideration after showing signs of life at the plate the last 2 weeks. It's not a great matchup (Rusin is a pretty heavy groundball pitcher inducers them at a rate of 49%) but the environment more than makes up for his batted ball allowed tendencies. Thanks to his struggles, his price is still down despite some "Colorado" inflation.
Justin Turner vs Tim Lincecum - It's well documented that Justin Turner can't hit lefties but what's not as documented is how well he fares against righties. Since 2013, and especially this year, Turner has a .388 wOBA against right-handed pitching (2nd highest value of the day at 3B) with a .885 OPS. Lincecum's home/away splits from the last 2 seasons paint a pretty favorable picture for the Dodger's lineup today.
Cheap Play:
Will Middlebrooks vs Jeremy Hellickson - In general, I don't love Will Middlebrooks. However, given the price point, the favorable park shift, and the gas tanker he's facing, he's a reasonable punt play option at the 3rd base position today.
Shortstop
Top Plays:
Troy Tulowitzki vs Matt Garza - I don't always recommend Troy Tulowitzki, but when I do, it's usually against a flammable pitcher. Enter Matt Garza. The Brewers' starter has struggled for most of the season and now he's being asked to go into the most hitter friendly park in baseball. Tulo has an excellent .384 wOBA and .213 ISO against right-handers since 2013 and offers substantial upside playing at home.
Carlos Correa vs JA Happ - Well Correa finally started hitting right-handed pitching this week and as a result, he's no longer as cheap as he was last week. Still, I love his price point against JA Happ and rate him as the clear #2 option of the day behind Tulo. He gives you power, he gives you speed, and most importantly, he gives you salary relief.
Value Play:
Ben Zobrist vs Garrett Richards - The stats have screamed Ben Zobrist as a recommended value play for quite awhile and his breakout performance this week has brought him back into the value discussion for DFS. On sites where he's shortstop eligible, Zobrist is a nice pivot off the likely to be highly owned Correa and Tulo and he has a solid .336 wOBA and .757 OPS against right-handers since 2013.
Cheap Play:
Brad Miller vs Vincent Velasquez - Brad Miller is a worthy punt play against the rookie Velasquez. As I mentioned with LoMo earlier, Velasquez has allowed a lot of hard hit balls and eventually those hard hit balls will turn into hits. On a day where there are a plethora of elite first base and outfield options, Miller is a worthy punt option at shortstop to save you some dough.
Outfield
Top Plays:
Carlos Gomez / Ryan Braun vs Chris Rusin - If he's in the lineup, Gomez and Braun are both fantastic plays today with great park shifts to Colorado and a high game total. Gomez is an excellent hitter against the cutter (2.55 wCT/c since 2013) and Rusin's main complementary pitch to his fastball is his cutter (24% usage). Braun on the other hand is a great change-up hitter, a pitch Rusin throws 15% of the time besides his fastball and cutter.
Justin Upton vs Jeremy Hellickson - Coming back home to his old stomping grounds and facing a very homerun prone pitcher is a recipe for success for Upton. JUp has a .190 ISO against right-handers since 2013 but the majority of that time has been in pitcher's ballparks. (ATL & SD). The huge ballpark shift to Chase Field is significant and he is a flyball hitter (40%) versus a flyball pitcher (40%) with a 15.6% HR/FB ratio since 2013.
Jose Bautista vs Chris Tillman - Well I like Encarnacion and Donaldson so of course I'm going to add some love for Bautista! I love a Blue Jays stack if you can make it work, especially with Bautista's tremendous power upside. He hits flyballs 43% of the time and is facing a pitcher with flyballs allowed 40% of the time and he has a solid 17,3% HR/FB ratio.
Andrew McCutchen / Starling Marte vs Gio Gonzalez - Based on historic wOBA and OPS, Andrew McCutchen and Starling Marte top my list of strong values against the lefty in Gio Gonzalez. Playing in Nationals Park hurts their value a bit but you have to love the righty/lefty splits. McCutchen has a .424 wOBA, .982 OPS and .223 ISO and Marte has an equally impressive .415 wOBA, .956 OPS and .198 ISO against left handed pitching since 2013. I'd use price as your determining factor here but I'd definitely try to get one of them into your lineups.
Value Plays:
Carlos Gonzalez / Charlie Blackmon vs Matt Garza - I want a lot of exposure to this Colorado/Milwaukee game and CarGo and Blackmon fit this mold perfectly. Both are righty killers and Garza is a walk/homerun machine this year. Since 2013, CarGo has an ISO of .269 and Blackmon has an OPS of .819 against right-handed pitching.
Dodgers Outfield vs Tim Lincecum - Oh hey, the entire Dodgers outfield is in play. I mentioned it earlier with Justin Turner but Tim Lincecum has really struggled outside of San Francisco and Yasiel Puig, Joc Pederson and Andre Ethier all have great splits against right-handed pitching. Each of which have wOBAs exeeding .350 and OPSs exceeding .800 (Pederson and Puig are approaching .900) against right handed pitching since 2013. Pederson's ISO against righties is an impressive .263 this season. I like the Dodgers as a sneaky stack today that not too many people will be on.
Matt Kemp / Will Venable vs Jeremy Hellickson - Like the Dodgers, I always like the entire Padres outfield against Hellickson (see Upton above). Kemp and Venable aren't nearly as good as Upton but they're still quality plays with great park shifts and both have been swinging hot bats lately. Venable and Kemp both have solid HR/FB rates over the last 3 seasons (14.1% and 15.4%, respectively) and Hellickson is a flyball pitcher in the second most homerun friendly environment in baseball.
Billy Burns vs Garrett Richards - Billy Burns has been a tremendous asset for DFS players this season and he has averaged 0.75 fantasy points per plate appearance on FanDuel and 2.22 fantasy points per plate appearance on DraftKings. Richards is a heavy groundball pitcher (54%) and Burns is a groundball hitter (49%). The only time this works out favorably for the hitter is when you have a speed guy like Burns at the plate.
Tournament:
Jay Bruce vs David Phelps - Strictly from a tournament perspective, I like Jay Bruce a lot today. Bruce has been on quite a tear and he gets to play at home against David Phelps. Anytime we have Bruce going up against a righty on one of his hot streaks, he's always in play as a tournament option given the high potential of a home run.
Kevin Kiermeier vs Cody Anderson - A lot of people don't realize the amount of power that Kevin Kiermeier packs against right-handed pitching like Anderson. I don't like counting on the Rays offense in cash games but Kiermeier is a nice inexpensive and sneaky play in tournaments.
