Justin Verlander (SP-Detroit)
The much anticipated return of Justin Verlander to the Detroit rotation is upon us with his first 2015 start set for Saturday. He is coming off a strong rehab outing where he struck out nine batters and allowed just one unearned run over 5.2 innings. The question with Verlander is how much can he rebound from a decidedly mediocre 2014 campaign where he posted a 15-12 record, 4.54 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, and 159/65 K/BB ratio in 206 innings. The first thing you notice is the drop in velocity from 95 mph to just over 93 mph last season. Unfortunately his signature changeup also diminished in effectiveness. This combination contributed to a decidedly pedestrian 8.8% swinging strike rate. He was a bit unlucky with a 66.8% LOB rate so there is some room for a positive ERA adjustment. A lot of pitchers do quite well with a 93 mph heater, so for Verlander it will be a matter of how effective he is with his secondary offerings. He'll have to continue to make adjustments, be effective with the placement of his fastball, and if he can he will be worthy of starting in any league.
Avisail Garcia (OF-CWS) $2800
Avisail Garcia seems to have recovered from a minor knee injury and has found his HR stroke. He clubbed his 7th of the season on Monday night and his 3rd HR in his last 5 games. He was 2-4 with a SB in today's contest. Garcia has a world of talent but his full power potential will not be reached until he can increase his FB% from its current 23% to somewhere in the 30+% range. He has a 17% career HR/FB rate and a 26% LD percentage this season so when/if this adjustment finally occurs his ceiling will be near elite. Right now we will have to be satisfied with a 24 year old line drive hitter who will mash 20-25 HR's. Tomorrow he faces a rookie Vincent Velasquez in his first MLB start so while he has his power stroke going he should be considered a good option in FanDuel at an attractive $2800 price.
Oswaldo Arcia (OF-Minnesota)
Oswaldo Arcia is recovering from a hip injury and on assignment with Triple-A Rochester. Once his stroke improves, he should return to the Twins lineup quickly. Minnesota is in strong need of his power bat with a team total of only 45 HR's on the season. Arcia clubbed 20 HR's in only 103 games for the Twins in 2014. Arcia is not a good contact hitter but he has very good bat speed and good distance on his HR's. His Achilles heel has been his strikeout rate which reached 31% last season. Looking at his Minor League numbers he had been able to keep his strikeout rates in check so there was hope that he would improve in that area. In fact this happened early in the 2015 season where he trimmed his K rate to 23% in 19 games before he was injured. Arcia lifts the ball 40% of the time so the HR's will come. At 24 years old he has plenty of time to refine his plate approach and allow his prodigious natural talents to bloom. He is only owned in 27% of CBS Sports leagues so he is a player to watch very closely as the season progresses.
Ian Kinsler (2B-Detroit)
Ian Kinsler had his 14th double and an RBI in today's game. He is coming off an absolutely fabulous 2014 season for the Tigers where he clubbed 17 HR's, scored 100 runs, knocked in 92, and stole 15 bases. This year Kinsler has experienced a complete power outage with only 1 HR in 252 PA's. Kinsler is an elite contact hitter and he remains so this year. With only one HR, it hard to make an assessment about his bat speed although this is an area where he has been only average throughout his career. His hard hit ball % is only slightly off from last season. At 32 years old, he is pulling the ball less so perhaps there is a bat speed and park dimension issue at the root of this lack of HR production. Whatever it is his owners have to hope that this is merely an adjustment that he will make rather than the beginning of a significant decline.
Evan Longoria (3B TB)
Evan Longoria was out of the lineup today with a wrist issue but will be available off the bench. Last season was a disappointment for Longoria as his HR output declined to 22 after 3 seasons where he has exceeded 30. He also was slightly unlucky with a .285 BABIP so many had forecast a bounce back season in power production and average. So far in 2015, he's batting a more reasonable .273 but he only has 5 HR's in 228 PA's. Looking at his underlying stats you immediately notice that he has a very high IFFB% of 12.5 which is well above his 7% career rate. His bat speed on HR's has actually increased this season as has his distance on long balls. I think Longoria will correct this problem over the course of the season and the HR's will start to come. For this reason, Longoria is a buy low candidate if some owner has soured on him.
@stevietheshu
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