Michael Pineda had a start to forget last night. In what seemed to be a great matchup against the Phillies, Pineda got rocked for eight earned runs in 3.1 innings. Six weeks ago, I was all-in on Pineda. His peripherals looked great and he was finally healthy. Since, he's been incredibly inconsistent, giving up 5 or more earned runs in 4 of his last 7 starts. I hate the volatility! Going into last night, his 3.54 ERA was inflated above his 2.69 FIP - both numbers that are sure to go up substantially tomorrow morning. So what do we make of Pineda? I think what you see is what you get; some nights his stuff is electric, and other nights you'll get duds. It's extremely frustrating, but I can't identify any noticeable trend here, except that you have to expect the unexpected.
Yoenis Cespedes joined in on the beating of Trevor Bauer last night, connecting for his 10th home run on the season on a ball that was deposited over the wall in about 2.3 seconds. By all accounts, Cespedes is having a great year - his .819 OPS is the highest its been since his rookie season. I like Cespedes in non-OBP roto leagues because he swings the bat every time. His 5.0% walk rate won't win him any awards. But this year, I remain concerned with Cespedes GB rate (46.9%) and .354 BABIP. A BABIP that high is unsustainable given his contact rates. There's some regression that's coming, but it will be somewhat lessened by the fact that he plays in a great lineup with a lot of scoring opportunities.
If you haven't yet, hop on the BullDozier bandwagon. Dozier went 2 for 5 with a home run and a stolen base last night. He's becoming a hallmark of consistency, with above average results just about every week since week 2. Dozier is a run scoring machine (55 on the year), but maybe best of all is what could happen if his luck improves. His .279 BABIP is significantly underrepresenting his 24.9% LD rate. His hard hit % has jumped 3.1% this year as well, further supporting an upcoming surge. His 6 stolen bases aren't up to last year's rate, but he's on pace to beat last year's 23 home runs, which owners won't complain with. Dozier is one of my top 3 second base options rest of season.
Trevor Bauer had the unfortunate task of pitching to the Tigers last night, giving up 7 earned runs in 3 innings of work. Bauer didn't make it easy on himself, loading the bases against Miguel Cabrera before issuing a bases loaded walk (never advised) followed by a double to V-Mart. This highlights the control issues that Bauer has this year (4.11 BB/9). That's what really holding him back from becoming a useful option every time out there. His 3.22 ERA looks good, but a 4.16 xFIP and 3.99 SIERA speak more to his skill level thus far. I love the K rate, but this seems like a classic case of Bauer needing a year or two to hone his skills. He reminds me a lot of Scherzer back in 2009 (10.6 K rate , 3.3 BB/9) and that guy turned out okay. Bauer is a good option in longterm keeper, but can't yet be trusted on a game to game basis unless he has a great matchup.
Stephen Drew has had a fascinating season. His has 10 doubles on the year, yet 11 home runs. Unfortunately, his .188 average strips him of all fantasy value, but the home runs are interesting nonetheless. His 266 flyball difference is 195th in the league, so the sustainability or expectation of similar power going forward wouldn't be something I would bet on. Drew's average has him (rightfully) hit last in the NYY lineup; don't buy into the power and leave Drew on the waiver wire.
