Yesterday, my colleague Menachem Greenfeld rightfully cautioned you against the expectation of Mitch Moreland's excellent average continuing going forward. I wanted to add a few things since I'm in the driver's seat on the Moreland bandwagon. This year, Moreland's batted ball distance is 14th in the league at 305.8, just ahead of Chris Davis and Bryce Harper; in 2013, Moreland was at 289. With that said, I'm more than willing to sacrifice some of Moreland's average going forward for what appears to be legitimate power. Moreland added his 13th and 14th home runs of the season last night (4 in two days), and I expect a handful more going forward. His 20.7% HR/FB isn't materially out of whack with his 16.5% in 2013, despite hitting the ball an extra 16 feet. So while Moreland is a low-end 1B option, that's more of a reflection of the talent at first base, not the inadequacy of Moreland. I'm more than happy with him in my Utility spot going forward. And in daily leagues, you can take advantage of his splits and sit him against lefties.
Joey Gallo was sent down yesterday as the Rangers made room for Josh Hamilton. In his 25 games in 2015, Gallo was just about as advertised. We saw some power with 5 home runs, but his 43.9% K rate was atrocious and would prohibit him from adding any fantasy value for your squad. Gallo had a .218 average, and that was with a miraculous .359 BABIP. Gallo belongs in the minors for now where he can continue to refine his game. He was fun to watch for the time being and I look forward to seeing him for the next few years. In shallower and moderately deep re-draft leagues, feel free to drop Gallo. He may make it back up at some point with an injury to the Rangers, but his performance will be too volatile to predict in 2015.
Crush Davis unleashed his 17th and 18th home runs of the season last night. Davis is on pace for a solid year, but I'll forever have a sour taste with Davis since he's still a far cry from his 2013 1.004 OPS season. But I digress, if you managed your expectations with Davis, his 2015 is just about as advertised coming into the year. Last year, he was hampered by an extremely unlucky .242 BABIP, which is back to a reasonable .297 this year. For Davis to succeed, I thought he'd need to use the centerfield similarly to how he did in 2013 (31%), but Davis is actually pulling the ball more than ever (54% vs. 45.2% career average). Normally I'd say his BABIP could improve a bit more, but with the shift against Davis, he's likely peaked with his current .234 average. But you drafted him for the power and he's not disappointing in that category.
I dealt for Danny Salazar about a month ago and expected him to start lighting the world on fire. He boasted some of the strongest peripherals in the game and seemed to be a big buy low target. Last night against the Rays, I'm unsure if I should be encouraged by Salazar's start. Salazar flirted with a no hitter, and ended up with a line of 7.2 innings and 1 earned run (he would have gone a full eight had it not been for an unforgivable Lindor error). Unfortunately, Salazar recorded only two strikeouts; it wasn't a case of him showing his dominance in mowing hitters down, but rather he benefited from an 0.091 BABIP. Time will tell with Salazar. His 4.06 ERA is unlucky compared to a 3.56 FIP, but I see even more value with his 2.73 SIERA that values Salazar's incredible strikeout ability a bit more than FIP. I'm inclined to rely more on Salazar's SIERA (could be my naivety) as he maintains a strong strikeout rate with runners on base (28.8%) as when bases are empty (31.3%). He has some of the highest upside going forward, so I'd still try to target him if you can get him for a reasonable value.
I feel obligated to praise George Springer's 2015 season. I was very bearish on Springer given his poor 33.0% K rate in 2014, but he's made some big improvements in his game, most notably improving his K rate to 27.4% and his LD% to an excellent 25.8%. Springer hit his 13th home run of the year last night, giving him an even 13/13 HR/SB. There's no reason to think that Springer can't keep improving, which makes him one of the highest upside players in the game. If Springer's .200 average in April was a fluke, he should end up with a strong output for the rest of the season. His ISO hasn't matched last year, but he's made up for it with more stolen bases and a higher average. If you have Springer in dynasty leagues, you should be smiling.
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