Jake Arrieta (ChN, SP) had a tough go of it yesterday against the Royals. Kansas City is a tough matchup, particularly during the day in Chicago when the wind is blowing 15 MPH towards the outfield. Arrieta threw 7 innings, giving up 4 ER off 8 hits while striking out 5. He gave up three home runs on the day. Overall, I'm happy with Arrieta's performance this year. I was skeptical of him repeating his 2014, but he's put together solid peripherals so far while occasionally having terrible luck. Going into yesterday, his 2.95 ERA was a half run higher than his FIP. Unfortunately, sometimes he'll be liable to the long ball during a day game in Chicago, but I'm getting more and more comfortable that 2014 wasn't a fluke. His swinging strike rate is down, but he's made up for it with a higher GB%. It's reasonable to see similar results rest of season.
Addison Russell (ChN, SS) got in on the home run party in Chicago, going 2-for-4 with his 4th home run, a double, and two runs. Russell isn't going to find much success this year if he keeps hitting in the #9 hole, or if he keeps striking out over 36% of the time. His .252 average is actually fortunate, as it's aided by an unsustainable .386 BABIP. In dynasty leagues, Russell is an obvious gem, but for the rest of the season, he's tough to start. He won't get the necessary at bats or RBI opportunities hitting 9th (..behind a pitcher, if you haven't noticed) to deliver strong upside. In re-draft leagues, I'd look to sell Russell if you can get something for his name value; we need to see a complete change of approach at the plate for him to find success in 2015. A turnaround is possible though, as his minor league strikeout rates were typically under 20%.
The big news of the day was more bad news for Stephen Strasburg (WSH, SP). He left Friday's game after only 1 inning due to tightness in his neck. This injury is a new one for Strasburg; it's unclear if that's a good sign or a bad sign. My instinct is telling me that something isn't right with Strasburg and it's causing additional stress to other areas of his body. He'll be further evaluated tomorrow, but I would be shocked if he didn't hit the DL or miss a start. Hopefully 2015 doesn't become a total lost season.
Joey Votto (Cin, 1B) was able to deposit a Stephen Strasburg pitch into the bleachers in his abbreviated outing. Votto's 8th home run was a welcome sign for fantasy owners as it was his first in quite a while. After looking like an MVP through April, Votto's peripherals have trended in the complete opposite direction. Three warning signs appear: a four year decline in hard hit percentage, an increase to 44% GB rate, and the highest K rate of his career, fueled by an increase in Swinging Strike percentage. All these factors make me want to avoid Votto. With all the talent at first base, I'd rather bet my chips on a guy with improving trends rather than declining.
The highly volatile season of Francisco Liriano (Pit, SP) continued on Friday, as he posted an impressive 6 innings, 11 strikeout, and no earned runs In his last five outings, Liriano has allowed five or more earned runs twice, including a 7 ER 2 inning effort vs. the Twins two starts ago. Liriano's peripherals are strong (including the highest Swinging Strike % in the league), but it's important to remember his jaded injury history; he's only pitched more than 165 innings once in his career, and that was in 2010. Liriano will continue to succeed in favorable matchups, but be prepared for the occasional dud and anticipate a DL stint or innings cap at some point to be safe.
Jake Arrieta had a tough go of it yesterday against the Royals. Kansas City is a tough matchup, particularly during the day in Chicago when the wind is blowing 15 MPH towards the outfield. Arrieta threw 7 innings, giving up 4 ER off 8 hits while striking out 5. He gave up three home runs on the day. Overall, I'm happy with Arrieta's performance this year. I was skeptical of him repeating his 2014, but he's put together solid peripherals so far while occasionally having terrible luck. Going into yesterday, his 2.95 ERA was a half run higher than his FIP. Unfortunately, sometimes he'll be liable to the long ball during a day game in Chicago, but I'm getting more and more comfortable that 2014 wasn't a fluke. His swinging strike rate is down, but he's made up for it with a higher GB%. It's reasonable to see similar results rest of season.
Addison Russell got in on the home run party in Chicago, going 2-for-4 with his 4th home run, a double, and two runs. Russell isn't going to find much success this year if he keeps hitting in the #9 hole, or if he keeps striking out over 36% of the time. His .252 average is actually fortunate, as it's aided by an unsustainable .386 BABIP. In dynasty leagues, Russell is an obvious gem, but for the rest of the season, he's tough to start. He won't get the necessary at bats or RBI opportunities hitting 9th (..behind a pitcher, if you haven't noticed) to deliver strong upside. In re-draft leagues, I'd look to sell Russell if you can get something for his name value; we need to see a complete change of approach at the plate for him to find success in 2015. A turnaround is possible though, as his minor league strikeout rates were typically under 20%.
The big news of the day was more bad news for Stephen Strasburg. He left Friday's game after only 1 inning due to tightness in his neck. This injury is a new one for Strasburg; it's unclear if that's a good sign or a bad sign. My instinct is telling me that something isn't right with Strasburg and it's causing additional stress to other areas of his body. He'll be further evaluated tomorrow, but I would be shocked if he didn't hit the DL or miss a start. Hopefully 2015 doesn't become a total lost season.
Joey Votto was able to deposit a Stephen Strasburg pitch into the bleachers in his abbreviated outing. Votto's 8th home run was a welcome sign for fantasy owners as it was his first in quite a while. After looking like an MVP through April, Votto's peripherals have trended in the complete opposite direction. Three warning signs appear: a four year decline in hard hit percentage, an increase to 44% GB rate, and the highest K rate of his career, fueled by an increase in Swinging Strike percentage. All these factors make me want to avoid Votto. With all the talent at first base, I'd rather bet my chips on a guy with improving trends rather than declining.
The highly volatile season of Francisco Liriano continued on Friday, as he posted an impressive 6 innings, 11 strikeout, and no earned runs In his last five outings, Liriano has allowed five or more earned runs twice, including a 7 ER 2 inning effort vs. the Twins two starts ago. Liriano's peripherals are strong (including the highest Swinging Strike % in the league), but it's important to remember his jaded injury history; he's only pitched more than 165 innings once in his career, and that was in 2010. Liriano will continue to succeed in favorable matchups, but be prepared for the occasional dud and anticipate a DL stint or innings cap at some point to be safe.
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