Andrelton Simmons - Simmons had a pretty enjoyable series against the Phils, going 6-11 with a double, triple, and a homer while walking twice. He's now hit in 6 straight, picking up XBH in 4 of those contests. Looking at a hitter's line in early May after a 6-game hot streak reeks of statistical manipulation, but man, this is the Simmons that I've expected to see for a year or two now. He's finally chasing less, showing some more pop (in his age 25 year, no less), and he's hitting line drives at a much better clip than in the past (over 25%). The reason that I actually think his power ceiling is more impressive than most of what he's shown, is that his AVG HR distance is much more representative of a 15-25 HR guy than a single-digit HR player. Last year that figure was 407 feet....of the top 75 HR hitters last year, only 11 eclipsed that distance on their average homer. He has "raw" power, but the "game" power has been very sporadic in its appearance. Those are the types of players that are more likely to spike, so I've got to consider Simmons a player with upside, especially at a position that seems so weak of late.
Nick Hundley - Hundley doubled and homered in the afternoon game Wednesday against Arizona, bringing his line up to 343/390/529 through his first 70 ABs. Some of this is Coors Field to be sure, as he is only hitting 325/386/400 on the road, but Coors Field doesn't lower your chase rate from 29.5% for your career (32.4% last year) to 21.6% here in 2015. He's unowned in over 75% of leagues out there, and since you might be able to shake the dust off of Todd Hundley and make him fantasy-relevant in Colorado, that's kind of foolish. He's only 31, but 4 years away from promise makes it seem so much worse. This seems about 40% environment, 40% hot streak, and 20% legitimate improvement, which makes him worth a roster spot in most formats.
Bryce Harper - Harper put on a show Wednesday, bashing 3 homers (two of which went over 440 feet) in the 7-5 win over Miami. Harper ranked 12th all-time in HRs through his age 21 season despite missing about 100 games due to injury over that span, and of the 11 players in front of him only two will likely end up out of the HOF: Bob Horner and Tony Conigliaro, who both deserve the "extenuating circumstances" asterisk. Put simply, it will be a major upset if Harper doesn't put together a HOF career, and further evidence of that isn't just present in his 3-homer game, but in the progress that he's made in controlling the strike zone thus far this year. His chase rate has declined by a fifth from last season, while his swinging strike% is down substantially as well (13.7% to 9.6%). He'll probably never be a .300 hitter, but I fully expect a bunch of 275/400/525-type lines in his future....close to what we expect from Giancarlo Stanton, a perennial top-10 selection. The speed that we once expected to see is not likely to return in any great amount, but if that takes him from one of the greatest ever to merely a HOF caliber RF, I suppose that's all right.
Chris Heston - Heston threw another four shutout innings on Wednesday, unfortunately they were sandwiched around a 5-spot to the Padres in the 3rd, an inning that ultimately dropped him to 2-3 on the year. Heston's improved control (and changeup) have resulted in a very solid start to this year, and even in Wednesday's difficult outing he still offered up an excellent GB rate and swinging strike%. His unremarkable minor league tenure still carries more weight with me than these 6 starts, but we all need to remember that players do change. Heston is earning more trust from me even with outings like this one due to the aforementioned GB rate and swinging strike% plus a 32% chase rate, and he certainly has done enough to warrant rostering in most formats at the very least.
Wily Peralta - Peralta finally picked up his first win of the year in his third straight quality start with an 8 inning, 2 ER performance against the Dodgers. The swinging strike% and GB rate are climbing back up start by start, making me think that he is back to the solid back-end starter with upside that we envisioned. The Brewer offense should continue to improve as Gennett and then Lucroy return from injury, making me think that Peralta is a solid waiver pickup in most formats right now.
