Jon Lester (SP-Cubs)
Jon Lester has pitched much better than his 1-2 record indicates and today he showed why. He pitched 7 innings of shutout ball giving up only three hits and striking out 4. Lester has been averaging just under a K/inning and his Swinging Strike rate is approaching 10%. He has been very unlucky in the early going with an overinflated .360 BABIP and a 63.8 LOB% so it was only a matter of time before he turned things around. Lester's curve has been his out pitch this season, but once he spots his fastball better and gets a little better action on his slider like he did today he will be just fine. His current 4.71 ERA is almost 2 runs higher than his 2.90 xFIP so Lester's owners should be breathing a sigh of relief after today's stellar outing. The window to buy low on Lester is gone.
Jay Bruce (OF-Cinn)
The 2014 season was a major disappointment for Bruce owners as his HR output dropped from 30 to 18, XBH's from 74 to 41, and he batted .217. So far this season, the HR power has certainly returned with 5 in April, but he is hitting a paltry .173 with only 1 double. He was 0-3 in today's game. There is a great deal of bad luck in this low batting average since his BABIP is an anemic .186. This stat will certainly undergo a major correction but a .240 average might be a stretch for this season. His K% has been steadily climbing each year and now sits at almost 29%. With a contact rate now under 70%, he will have to keep up this HR pace in order to be a valuable fantasy asset since he has also stopped hitting doubles as well. Whether he can do that or not is in question because his current 23.8% HR/FB rate is probably unsustainable. Bruce is only 28 so things can turn around but the warning signs are there.
Marcell Ozuna (OF, Miami)
Marcell Ozuna had an exciting sophomore season blasting 23 HR's and driving in 85. He appeared to be primed to provide that 2nd strong power bat in the Marlins lineup to pair with Giancarlo Stanton. It is now May 1st, and we are still waiting for his 1st HR of the season. While he is batting .315 after going 4 for 4 today, the strikeout rate is starting to climb toward the 30% mark which is always a red flag for a young hitter. His FB% has remained somewhat stable at 31% but he is undercutting the ball to the tune of a 13.3% IFFB rate. I'm fairly certain that he will be able to correct this problem, but the loss of power is concerning for now. Since his underlying contact rates have remained stable, I do believe that the power stroke will return at some point very soon, but this is not the kind of start to the 2015 season that his owners had envisioned.
Charlie Blackmon (OF, Col)
Blackmon has started the season a bit slowly in April from a production standpoint batting .291 but with only 2 HR's and 2 SB's. He was held out of today's game due to illness. These early numbers put him well off the pace of last season. Blackmon burst onto the scene last year with an eye-opening 19 HR, 28 SB performance while batting a cool .288. The question for this 28 year old late bloomer is can he sustain this level of performance or was his 2014 performance merely an aberration? Let's take a closer look at his numbers from last season and compare them to April. Blackmon was a very good contact hitter at 85% last season but he has seen his rate drop to 81% and he is striking out at a 6% higher rate. He is simply making less contact on pitches outside the zone. On the plus side, some of this decline has been offset by an increase in his walk rate. Although his ISO is actually higher than his final mark in 2014, Blackmon put the ball in the air about 37% of the time in 2014 (29% in April) so he has not given himself the same chance to produce HR's. Blackmon stole 28 bases last season but was thrown out 10 times. In April, he stole 2 and was thrown out twice. It could be that his poor base stealing percentage last season has discouraged him from running in the early going. I think Blackmon still represents an exciting power/speed combo sitting atop the Rockies lineup. It is still very early and by no means am I suggesting that his owners panic, but he will have to improve in the coming months if he is to approach his 2014 breakout numbers.
Mike Foltynewicz, (SP-Atlanta)
Mike Foltynewicz was called up from Triple A Gwinettt to make the start against the Reds. Foltynewicz picked up the win pitching 5 innings and giving up 2 ER on 6 hits with 2 K's and 3 walks. After a rough first two innings, he settled down and featured his 97 mph heater and threw strikes in a competent start. He is a highly ranked prospect (#2 in the Atlanta system) who was a key asset picked up by the Braves in the trade of Evan Gattis to the Astros. If he pitches well, he might stick in the rotation as a replacement for Trevor Cahill who has been a complete bust in the 5th starter role this season. We all know that Atlanta does very well developing young pitching. The kid has a 100 mph fastball and some have speculated that if he doesn't stay in the rotation he could be the Atlanta closer of the future. I know that Jason Grilli has pitched very well in the closer role for Atlanta in April, but let's not forget that he is 38 and really only has one good year in that role. Foltynewicz is not a finished product, as he has issues with command, but there is no denying his arm. It's his secondary pitches that will be the key to his success, but right now he has a good curve and also throws a sinker and change. The hard-throwing 23-year-old right-hander recorded a 2.08 ERA and 30 strikeouts through 21 2/3 innings this season at Triple-A Gwinnett and could be worth a pickup in deeper mixed fantasy leagues.
@stevietheshu
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