Chris Young (SP-KC): The Chris Young train continued to roll on Friday night, as the lanky Royal tossed 6 scoreless innings to bring his ERA to a miniscule .78 in earning his 4th win. And with that, now is the time to sell. Young now sports a 5.01 xFIP, as he carries a .165 BABIP and a 1.6% HR/FB mark. While has elevated his swing-and-miss and chase rates, and his HR/FB rate should remain below league average because of his extreme flyball tendencies, look for his ERA to move into the upper 3's as the season progresses.
Alfredo Simon (SP-DET): Simon Says didn't allow an earned run in 7 strong innings and picked up his 5th win in outdueling Collin McHugh. And with that, I say look to sell. He has posted a 2.67 ERA/4.21 xFIP with a well-below average 16% K-rate. Hitters are actually making more contact and chasing fewer pitches off Simon than they did in 2014. Play the matchups--especially against lineups with a weak lefty presence and at home--but be weary of trusting Simon on a weekly basis.
Rick Porcello (SP-BOS): Porcello allowed 7 earned runs in 4 and 1/3 innings against the Angels to continue what has been a very inconsistent season. He has shown improved swinging strike and K-rates, and has been a bit unfortunate with a 13.8% HR/FB rate. Don't give up on him. If he vaults his first-pitch strike percentage back to the 64% mark he posted in 2014, he'll be able to better utilize his secondary offerings. I see a nice buying opportunity here.
Jeff Samardzija (SP-CHW): The Shark allowed 2 earned runs in 8 innings and struck out 9 against the Twins. It has been a bizarre season for Samardzija. He's been throwing the cutter more (usage is up 12% from last season) and missing significantly fewer bats (his swinging strike rate is down 3%). The good news is that we are seeing the Shark maintaining his excellent control and command (68% first pitch strike mark and 5% BB-rate), so my take is we are seeing an adjustment period with his new team and battery mates. Buy.
Steven Vogt (C-OAK): Vogt just mashes righties, even the good ones like Archer. The lefty hit his 10th homer of the season to push his wOBA against righties to an amazing .437 mark. With a 5% swinging strike rate of 5%, a chase rate of 23%, and an EYE close to 1, Vogt continues to prove he's the real deal. He'll get Nate Karns--he who carries a .385 wOBA at home and a .386 mark there vs. lefties--during today's early slate.
DraftKings Price: $3700
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