Preseason Prep - April 2nd

Back to Their Old Ways?

Edwin Jackson (SP-CHC) - Not to be a bully but Edwin Jackson is a fantasy disaster. As a Cub fan, I cringe every time Jackson takes the mound. Much to surprise, he has actually been pretty good in four of his five spring training appearances. Jackson's deceptive 5.28 ERA is the result of one bad outing when he allowed eight earned runs in 1.2 innings. Aside from that one start, Jackson has only given up one earned run in 13.2 innings. Just this past Sunday he blanked the Royals putting up a pitching line of 4.2 IP 1 H 0 R and 3 Ks. Is the Edwin Jackson who pitched the Cardinals through the postseason back? Only time will tell. For now, don't even consider starting Jackson unless you want to show off. No pitcher with a .354 BABIP stands a chance in the MLB.

Dan Uggla (2B-WAS) - I'm rooting so hard for Dan Uggla to make the Nationals opening day roster. Currently, he is hitting .286 with two home runs in 42 at bats. Additionally, he has only struck out seven times. Swinging and missing has been a huge problem for Uggla across his career. Over the past two seasons Uggla's K% has peaked, and now sits between 29-31%. Hopefully Uggla's recent success is a sign that he's back to his old self. The Nats could really use a guy with Uggla's pop anyway, especially since many of their key players are injured. With Anthony Rendon hurt, Uggla has a better chance to sneak a couple starts in early. If he finds a way to play consistently, he'll likely be a middle of the lineup hitter. Think about snagging him, but don't act too fast because there is no guarantee Uggla starts.

Chien-Ming Wang (SP-ATL) - This is my second time writing about Chien-Ming Wang. I'm still not convinced he's back to his old self, but his most recent outing against the Cardinals may suggest otherwise. In 4.2 innings, Wang allowed no runs on 3 hits and 2 walks. This lowered his ERA to 2.70 for spring training. Wang isn't nasty or anything close to it, but he is efficient. I had the chance to watch him pitch against the Cardinals, and I was mildly impressed. He threw strikes and got the ball on the ground. I don't think he's worth a roster space yet, but his value is definitely rising.

Barry Zito (SP-OAK) - I'm just as confused as everyone else when it comes to Barry Zito. This is the same guy who signed a colossal contract with the Giants and then proceeded to go 63-80. When last clocked, Zito's average fastball velocity was 83.2 MPH. No one swung and missed at a Barry Zito mistake. Before getting pounded by the Angels on Tuesday, Zito had a 13 inning scoreless steak. Despite allowing seven earned runs on eight hits, Zito's BAA and WHIP are only .208 and 1.02 respectively. Zito is still on the fast track to making the opening day roster for the A's. I'm not a buyer yet, but this might be an interesting case to see how it pans out. Zito will never be an award-winning pitcher again, but he might have decent success pitching in Oakland. As a fantasy owner, I would keep an eye out for Zito. He's likely to begin the season in the bullpen due to a saturated rotation, but one injury could pave the way for a shot at redemption.

Hot Prospects:

Kendall Graveman (SP-OAK) - Kendall Graveman is one of the hottest prospects in spring training. If you haven't heard of him, get to know him. Graveman's 0.42 ERA and 0.66 WHIP in 21.1 innings is jaw dropping. Much of this success can be attributed to the fact that opposing hitters are only batting .143 against him. As far as K's go, Graveman is no strikeout machine as displayed by his 11 K's. Nonetheless he's been nearly flawless in every other category. Due to his success in spring training Graveman is projected to be the fourth starter in the A's rotation. This should make him a high priority on your wish list. If you have a dispensable player on your roster, I would suggest dropping him for Graveman. Pitchers in Oakland are worth the fantasy pick up every time.

Joc Pederson (CF -LAD) - Future superstar alert. Joc Pederson is looking like the favorite to start opening day in center field for the Dodgers. Last season at Triple-A, Pederson had 33 home runs and stole 30 bases. He put up a 33-30 line while hitting .303 with a .435 OBP. What heavily influenced his outstanding OBP was the fact that Peterson walked 100 times. Not many young players display this type of patience at the plate. Pederson is the real deal and his spring training performance reflects this. His six home runs, 21 hits, and .368 AVG are a sign of great things to come. Get him now if you still can; he's the full five-tool package.

Michael Taylor (CF-WAS) - With Denard Span injured, Michael Taylor is a lock to start opening day in center field for the Nats. After hitting 24 home runs and stealing 37 bases last season between Double-A, Triple-A, and the MLB, it's hard to doubt Taylor's talent. The type of offensive potential Taylor offers makes him an enticing fantasy pick up. To add to his credibility, Taylor has four home runs and a .322 AVG in spring training. My only concern is that when Span returns, Taylor will be back on the bench. That should give him about a month or so of solid playing time. I would advise picking Taylor up if you still can. His 30-30 potential could be invaluable if he finds a way to stay in the Nats lineup.

Rising Stars:

Khris Davis (LF-MIL) - Believe or not Khris Davis is a must have fantasy player. In 2014, Davis's first full season, he had 22 home runs and 69 RBIs in 501 at bats. His home run total of 22 was deceptively low based on his .213 ISO. Players with this kind of pop generally hit 25 or more homers. A .213 ISO in 2014 put Davis in company with guys like Matt Kemp, Miguel Cabrera, and Adrian Gonzalez. Now it doesn't seem so crazy that I call Davis a must have. Davis is tearing things up in spring training. His 18 hits, six doubles, and 15 RBIs in 49 at bats give the Brewers a reason to look forward to 2015. Consider trading for Davis if you can't get him off waivers. He's heavily underrated and his fantasy ceiling is much higher than most give him credit for.

Tommy Medica (1B-SD) - Move over Yonder Alonso, Tommy Medica is coming for you. Going into his third major league season, Medica is making a big push to get into the opening day lineup. In 38 spring training at bats, Medica has 16 hits, four home runs, and 12 RBIs. Needless to say, I think he's ready for opening day. As a sophomore last season, Medica hit nine home runs and posted a .175 ISO in 240 at bats. Based on these numbers, I think it's reasonable to assume Medica could hit 20-25 home runs if given the at bats. The only issue is that he plays behind Yonder Alonso, and Justin Upton occupies Medica's secondary position, left field. For these reasons I wouldn't pick Medica up right away, but when Matt Kemp gets hurt, like he always does, Medica will have an opportunity to solidify a spot in the starting lineup.

Sure Things:

Adrian Gonzalez (1B-LAD) - Adrian Gonzalez is a player I would never regret drafting on my fantasy team. Gonzalez is a great hitter who provides consistent production no matter what team he plays for. In seven of his last eight seasons, Gonzalez has driven in at least 100 RBIs. The only season during this stretch that he failed reach 100 RBIs he finished with 99 RBIs. Across his career Gonzalez has also displayed impressive durability. In every season since his rookie campaign, Gonzalez has played in at least 156 games. This combination of consistency and reliability makes him anything but risky. Count on Gonzalez to smack about 25 home runs, drive in 100 RBIs and hit .285. If you don't believe me, then look at his career statistics. Gonzalez's average season consists of 22 home runs, 108 RBIs and a .290 AVG. For a guy whose played 13 years that's pretty remarkable. If you drafted Gonzalez, consider yourself privileged. He's a fantasy stud and a cinch to finish in the top 20 for MVP voting.

J.D. Martinez (LF-DET) - Some people may still be skeptical about J.D. Martinez, but I am not one of them. Martinez can swing the stick, and his power numbers from 2014 reflect that. His .553 SLG, .911 OPS, .238 ISO, and 19.2 AB/HR were off the charts. To add to his credentials Martinez posted a .315 AVG, which was aided by an elite .397 BABIP. With stats like these, you have to imagine the Astros are kicking themselves for letting Martinez go. In spring training, Martinez is hitting like a machine. His five home runs, 11 RBIs, and 13 runs scored rank amongst the best in March. If you want to win, find a way to get Martinez on your roster. As a core member of the stacked Detroit lineup, he will undoubtedly have a great year.

Jordan Zimmerman (SP-WAS) - Behind Steven Strasburg and Max Scherzer is the Nationals true ace, Jordan Zimmermann. In 2014 Zimmerman posted a 6.28 K/BB, 1.31 BB/9, 2.75 FIP, and 2.66 ERA. These statistics all categorize Zimmerman with the best pitchers in baseball. Another attribute that stands out is Zimmerman's 93.8 mph average fastball. Contrary to what many would suspect, Zimmerman doesn't use his heater to overpower hitters. Surprisingly, he uses his fastball to get batters to put the ball in play. Zimmerman's 14.6 P/IP provides concrete evidence in his ability to pitch to contact. Due to his knack for pitching deep into games and keeping runners off the bases, Zimmermann is a top 15 fantasy pitcher. His 2.66 ERA, 199.2 IP, 1.072 WHIP, and 182 strikeouts from 2014 are easily replicable for a pitcher of his talents.

Potential Busts:

Michael Cuddyer (RF-NYM) - It breaks my heart to say this, but Michael Cuddyer could be a waste of a fantasy pick. Two red flags make me scared to draft him. First off, Cuddyer's health is a potential problem. Last season Cuddyer missed over a 100 games due to various injuries, and it wasn't the first time in his career that health was an issue. Secondly, Cuddyer plays for one of the most disappointing offenses in one of the most hitter unfriendly ballparks. Due to these two reasons, I don't think there's any way Cuddyer comes close to the .576 SLG, .955 OPS, .247 ISO, and .376 OBP that he posted in 2014. Cuddyer is definitely a risky pick, but his upside is as high as anyone's. Right now Cuddyer's March couldn't be going any better. In 49 at bats he has 16 hits, which includes six home runs and 11 extra base hits. Cuddyer is a great hitter; I don't think anybody doubts that. Regardless, it's tough to ignore his deteriorating body in a stadium where hitters go to die.

Jason Heyward (RF-STL) - Jason Heyward is an all star caliber player with a top 20 WAR. However, he's not an all star fantasy player. Heyward's 83% contact rate, 0.68 BB/K, and 10.3% BB rate are all great stats, but they won't help your fantasy team at all. Every team needs home runs, RBIs, runs, stolen bases, and AVG. Last year Heyward had 11 home runs, 58 RBIs, 74 runs, 20 stolen bases, and a .271 AVG. None of these numbers are terrible, but as a fantasy owner you need more. Part of what hurt Heyward's stats was that he led off most of the year. Things should be different in St Louis, as Heyward will likely be hitting second behind the talented Matt Carpenter. Nonetheless, Heyward is still a dangerous pick. In five seasons with Atlanta, he only exceeded 20 home runs in a season once, and never came close to scoring 100 runs or driving in a 100 RBIs. Heyward is a mature hitter for his age, and definitely posses all five tools. Regardless, he isn't a fantasy star and he shouldn't be considered a top 100 pick.

Chris Tillman (SP-BAL) - Chris Tillman is a statistical outlier. He pretty much excels at nothing, yet his ERA was 3.34 last season. Based on the numbers I think Tillman is bound to collapse soon. Since 2012 his fastball velocity has dropped each year, and currently sits at about 90.7 MPH. This drop in velocity could potentially explain why his BABIP has increased every season during this span. Last year in particular, Tillman's numbers were especially unremarkable. He posted a 2.86 BB/9, 6.51 K/9, and a 4.08 FIP. While he might not be a bad fantasy pitcher, there are better options that will cost you less. My gut says go with someone else, and the statistics support that.

Time Frame: Preseason